Any Bulls Left?

[Dawg52]

I don't think it's capitulation until the people who have these thoughts actually sell.

I made my mind up long ago I would just follow it down to zero. So I guess we won't have capitulation until we get there.

 

[ziggy29]

I made my mind up long ago I would just follow it down to zero. So I guess we won't have capitulation until we get there.

My feelings at this point are basically of resignation. If I hold it may continue to go lower and my retirement is screwed. If I sell down here I know I've locked in having my retirement be screwed. Might as well hope for the best instead of locking a 100% chance of being screwed...

 

[2B]

I'm keeping on keeping on. I just get these feelings of pointless pain being dumped on me when I could sell so easily. I know all the logic of buy and hold but I also know how its better to buy back in when its lower. Unfortunately, I don't know how much lower it can go.

Right now we have massive shorting of all the banks again. Could anyone possibly be naked shorting? The SEC is such a crack enforcement arm I doubt they would have a clue. The rumor is "nationalization" which implies a total wipeout of all large banks since they all hold each others preferreds and bonds. Kill one and kill them all is the logic. The banks for their part are denying everything but they've been in denial and denial mode for the last year. BAC and C are either DOA in a matter of days or the best investment opportunity of our lives.

I'm not going to sell (I think) but I will continue to opine. I intend to copulate all the way to the bottom.

 

[Bikerdude]

I'm thinking about buying some high grade corporate bonds. It's not really enough for a decent bond order but I can wait a few more months. I'm buying S&P index funds automatically in my 401k and SERP but I just can't stomach actually placing a new buy order.

I'm considering corporate bonds for some yield. Maybe some "trust preferred". I'm retired and these low MM & CD rates are a drag on cash flow. I'm also looking at Wellesley for a little yield. However, we should all stay mindful of that Will Rogers quote "I'm not so concerned of the return ON my money as the return OF my money"

 

[Gpond]

All the people that were bullish at 14K DOW are now calling the bottom.

Wonder how that will work out?

Last time this clown climbed out of his hole was March 2008 - sell off is overdone:

YouTube - Barton Biggs interview_080314

Guess which clown climbed out his hole yesterday saying sell off is overdone? "Massive rally on the way"

YouTube - Economic Expectations - Market is Poised for Rally Amid "Terrible" Sentiment - Bloomberg

 

[Bikerdude]

Right now we have massive shorting of all the banks again. Could anyone possibly be naked shorting? The SEC is such a crack enforcement arm I doubt they would have a clue. The rumor is "nationalization" which implies a total wipeout of all large banks since they all hold each others preferreds and bonds. Kill one and kill them all is the logic.

I think this why Timmy is having a hard time coming up with a plan. Not only do banks own the preferred stock but Insurance companies own a boat load. I don't think they want to go there.

 

[laurence]

Wow, this is extreme.

Just a little reality checking, if I just drew a line on a chart, it looks like we are at January 1997 levels for the S&P, does this leave out dividends? I suppose it would do to mention inflation as well.

The funny thing is, I've gotten about half a dozen people to start taking advantage of the 401k match at work in the last few weeks. If any of them say, "Hey! I lost $200! I'm not doing this anymore!" I will choke them.

 

[Gpond]

You just got to watch this video (and look at where the DOW and S&P 500 were trading out). Look how bullish they were - they were just about dry humping each other and their desks.

Don Luskin "This is the time to buy stocks with both hands". He was on Kudlow a couple days ago and said "when everyone does not want to own stocks, that is the time to be buying with both hands". (I can't find that video) - still looking.

Don't want to be a rear view guy but man I really wished I sold everything then. I have had about 7.3 years of working income wiped out since then.

YouTube - Peter Schiff & Don Luskin - CNBC - Kudlow & Company - 7/2/2007

 

[ls99]

Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me


Jim could very well have sang something similar he was on the floor a lot from 1969 onwards ...

Well, being on the floor a lot, would give the impression of 'beein down so long.......

 

[2B]

In response to many posts....

90% of the pundits and talking heads are wrong if they give both a number and a time frame. The 10% that are right are selected at random so 1% are right twice in a row. If someone is right three times in a row they have outperformed 99.9% of all the other talking heads. They are bestowed the title of "PROPHET."

Of course, their odds of being wrong the fourth time is still 90% but with tens of thousands of talking heads there are always a slim few that have "proven their worth consistently over time."

 

[REWahoo]

More reinforcement on why we shouldn't listen to the "experts"...

"You've probably never wanted expert insight more than today - and never trusted it less. After all, the intelligent, articulate, well-paid authorities voicing these opinions are the ones who created the crisis or failed to predict it or lost 30% of your 401(k) in it.

Yet we can't tear ourselves away. The crisis has brought record ratings to CNBC and its parade of talking heads. You're probably still entrusting your portfolio to the experts running mutual funds. Despite everything, we can't shake the belief that elite forecasters know better than the rest of us what the future holds.

The record, unfortunately, proves no such thing...."

"We found that our experts' predictions barely beat random guesses - the statistical equivalent of a dart-throwing chimp - and proved no better than predictions of reasonably well-read nonexperts. Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be."

Philip Tetlock on expert predictions on the economy - Feb. 18, 2009

 

[ziggy29]

The crisis has brought record ratings to CNBC and its parade of talking heads. http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/17/pf/experts_Tetlock.moneymag/index.htm

Yep. Which in turn encourages more doomsday reporting, causing the markets to fall even more, causing unemployment to rise even more... and bringing more record ratings to CNBC.

Rinse, lather, repeat...

 

[HFWR]

More reinforcement on why we shouldn't listen to the "experts"...

"You've probably never wanted expert insight more than today - and never trusted it less. After all, the intelligent, articulate, well-paid authorities voicing these opinions are the ones who created the crisis or failed to predict it or lost 30% of your 401(k) in it.

Yet we can't tear ourselves away. The crisis has brought record ratings to CNBC and its parade of talking heads. You're probably still entrusting your portfolio to the experts running mutual funds. Despite everything, we can't shake the belief that elite forecasters know better than the rest of us what the future holds.

The record, unfortunately, proves no such thing...."

"We found that our experts' predictions barely beat random guesses - the statistical equivalent of a dart-throwing chimp - and proved no better than predictions of reasonably well-read nonexperts. Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be."

Philip Tetlock on expert predictions on the economy - Feb. 18, 2009

What he said...

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/two-pertinent-topics-on-cnnmoney-42590.html

 

[Steve O]

Im getting greedy

 

[haha]

It's easy to get your bullishness stomped out on a day like today.

It's like last fall; and it gets discouraging.

Ha

 

[lswswein]

I have been hitting my BRK.b tiggers (limit orders) - blew through 2500, 2250 etc. My 10% gambling portfolio is already completely in BRK and I am sorely tempted to dip into the value Index stuff and move them to BRK even though my AA plan forbids it.

-h

 

[ziggy29]

I have been hitting my BRK.b tiggers (limit orders) - blew through 2500, 2250 etc. My 10% gambling portfolio is already completely in BRK and I am sorely tempted to dip into the value Index stuff and move them to BRK even though my AA plan forbids it.

I don't know what's up with Berkshire, but I suspect the market is deciding to value its positions in the financials at zero.

Didn't quite hit my low-ball limit order for five shares at 2201, though. Yet.

 

[Steve O]

Where's the "Plunge protection team"

 

[haha]

I think the stock market is trading on its perception that nobody in Washington has a clue. From looking forward to a rescue, the market has come to fear a horrible botch.

This market has been weaker than ever before during the early days of a new administration. Obie must have expected that appointing all the old Clinton warhorses would reassure people, but it doesn't seem to have worked. In particular, Geithner seems to have laid a very stinky egg.

Ha

 

[snodog]

Where's the "Plunge protection team"

Maybe the "Plunge protection team" is shorting stocks.

 

[harley]

I've still got a bunch of funds that my old CFA talked me into. I've been very hesitant to sell them because I didn't want to be buying high selling low. But I'm very seriously considering doing just that now for various reasons.

1) Get out of the funds I don't want, freeing up my money to invest where I think it should be.

2) Taking losses or minimizing capital gains, while accomplishing 1.

3) Capitulating, and thereby reversing the entire market trend and ending the financial crisis.

I'll let you know when I pull the trigger so you can get back in in time. Or would that be insider trading?

 

[hankster]

We sold our house in January and here we sit with some dry powder and no idea of what we should do with it.

At least my employee's credit union (Bless their hearts) is paying 3.5% while we vacillate

 

[audreyh1]

Yet we can't tear ourselves away. The crisis has brought record ratings to CNBC and its parade of talking heads. You're probably still entrusting your portfolio to the experts running mutual funds. Despite everything, we can't shake the belief that elite forecasters know better than the rest of us what the future holds.

Hmmm - well. The crisis has caused me to turn CNBC OFF. I guess other people (new people) are watching the slow train wreck. IMO CNBC is adding NO VALUE in this situation - just a bunch of screamers and whiners and people freaking out. I wish the grown ups would come back and start covering finance, but in the mean time I've got better things to do.

Audrey

 

[ziggy29]

I wish the grown ups would come back and start covering finance, but in the mean time I've got better things to do.

Which reminds me that I miss Lou Rukeyser.

 

[FIREd]

Hmmm - well. The crisis has caused me to turn CNBC OFF. I guess other people (new people) are watching the slow train wreck. IMO CNBC is adding NO VALUE in this situation - just a bunch of screamers and whiners and people freaking out. I wish the grown ups would come back and start covering finance, but in the mean time I've got better things to do.

Audrey

I have turned off CNBC too. Today I have the movie "30 days of Night" (30 Days Of Night - Official Site) in the background and it's far less scary than listening to CNBC right now.