Retire Soon
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Nov 23, 2005
- Messages
- 655
In my equities allocation, where I hold mostly Vanguard Total Stock Market I plan to ride it out as low as it may go. It's simply too late to bail.
I'm starting to wonder if maybe herd mentality with regard to investing is actually the right way to do it. What was the heard doing in 98-00' - buying like mad and in internet stock of course, and even in 1-2 years they doubled their money. If the herd then soon panicked into 2000 and they panicked within a month or two, they missed most of the drop that continued through the end of 02' and sold much sooner than I did (which was never).
I've always believed I would maintain my AA at 40/40/20 and stay in the market no matter what. However, retired for almost four years and relying on our nest egg for 100% of our expenses until this year (SS now accounts for 25%), this market is testing my resolve.
l.
I've heard several pundits who think we will get a market rally soon. Possibly significant. 'Hopefully' this will happen and give some of us a chance to trim our equities down a bit.I've
If the current trend continues our expenses and market losses by the end of 09 will wither our nest egg to 50% of where it was when I retired. Don't think I will be able to watch that happen without making some attempt to reduce the bleeding.
Hard to say. Suggest a suspension or elimination of mark-to-market and people will immediately respond, "Enron!"I wonder if there is any chance the rule will be changed? I've heard people talk about this for months.
I've always believed I would maintain my AA at 40/40/20 and stay in the market no matter what. However, retired for almost four years and relying on our nest egg for 100% of our expenses until this year (SS now accounts for 25%), this market is testing my resolve.
Hard to say. Suggest a suspension or elimination of mark-to-market and people will immediately respond, "Enron!"
On the other hand, mark-to-market accounting is prudent when the markets are orderly and liquid. This market is neither for the stuff some of these banks are carrying. Some of them are carrying fully performing assets that they have to "mark to market" at almost zero. In a dysfunctional market with little liquidity, this has the potential to lead to a death spiral for financial institutions whose balance sheets depend on how these assets are valued.
I've always believed I would maintain my AA at 40/40/20 and stay in the market no matter what. However, retired for almost four years and relying on our nest egg for 100% of our expenses until this year (SS now accounts for 25%), this market is testing my resolve.
After an initial move to maintain my AA when the Dow dropped below 10,000, I've been unable/unwilling to buy more equities. Deer in the headlights syndrome.
If the current trend continues our expenses and market losses by the end of 09 will wither our nest egg to 50% of where it was when I retired. Don't think I will be able to watch that happen without making some attempt to reduce the bleeding.
I'd like to be able to say I'm optimistic the decline will end before I have to make that decision. Unfortunately the best word I can come up with is hopeful.
I've heard several pundits who think we will get a market rally soon. Possibly significant. 'Hopefully' this will happen and give some of us a chance to trim our equities down a bit.
...provided the individual has enough other sources of income and enough time to wait until the bottom is reached, and the recovery is of sufficient strength and speed to prevent total nest egg destruction. The latter two qualifiers mark the line between 'wise investor' and 'sad statistic'.The biggest gain an individual can achieve is to have funds available and the ability to make the required purchases on the way to the bottom...
Which goes back to what I've said many times before -- the unfortunate paradox is that the people who can most afford to take stock market risk are usually the ones who don't need to......provided the individual has enough other sources of income and enough time to wait until the bottom is reached, and the recovery is of sufficient strength and speed to prevent total nest egg destruction
Curiosity, watched the full clip.riding it all the way.
Just watch the first 30 seconds or so .
Never seen the movie. Time to go rent it.
Unfortunately the best word I can come up with is hopeful.
If Mr Market closes red today, I may not look at it again for a year.
It closed higher, but the last 30 minutes were another vicious selloff which indicates to me the trend is still VERY firmly bearish.If Mr Market closes red today, I may not look at it again for a year.