FloatingDoc,
I'm going to repeat what some others have said. Hopefully this will help.
So in summary then...nobody really knows do they.
Nobody really knows what the weather will be, so why should "they" know which ultimate single investment would meet your requirements? But! What many who have studied the American financial markets over the last 80 years know is that for the average investor, a mix of stocks and bonds provide consistent returns
over time.
You are asking about a decumulation plan that will generate a set amount of cash annually. Certainly, there are those who have invested in a single investment, and if you have enough up front, a TIPS investment or an annuity can generally provide one with the cash needs you identify.
I said generally, or as economists would say: "all other things being equal." That is, there are risks to consider, as others have mentioned, ASSUMING you will be actively managing your nest egg. You expressed a desire to stop reading and analyzing the best method.
If you are looking for a "set it and forget it," you need to be in a combination of stocks and bonds, or, you need to be paying an adviser to do it for you. But nothing is guaranteed -- except guaranteed investment contracts -- as long as the insurance company remains solvent.
So, it's quite a problem you've presented. As some else said, if you have $3Million available, then TIPS could be used, as long as in your retirement, you don't hit a patch where there is negative interest. So it's a risk. Modern portfolio theory which advocates for asset allocation, says that a combination of assets smooths the risk and the
return for the investor.
That's what most on this board believe. Certainly you proved it with your recovery from the 2008 markets. The hard part as you've discovered is deciding what that combination should be.
One poster here advocates for a majority of investment in Wellesley Fund, with another significant portion in a Target Retirement fund, and then some stocks to play around in. He focuses on achieving an SEC yield equal to 3.5-4%, which covers his cash withdrawal.
It works for him -- you have to decide what works for you.
So you see, there are risks to everything.
-- Rita