DblDoc
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2007
- Messages
- 1,224
So you have already made up your mind and want our approval. Good luck!
And it is still made up...
DD
So you have already made up your mind and want our approval. Good luck!
The world economy is weakening. Why on earth would someone follow a model that says to keep 20%+ of one's money in equities?
I don't get it.
The only place to be right now is in cash and cash equivalents.
A small return is better than a huge loss.
I'd be interested if anyone shares my view that keeping cash for the next couple years might be a good strategy. I've done well in gold and am willing to cash in, wait, and then buy government bonds at some point in the future. I don't have a good feeling about the typical asset allocation model which requires that one put money in stock index funds and bonds... at least right now.
Thanks
This is why a good allocation is so important. Take the fear and greed out of investment decisions.
There are so many uncertainties with regard to the future that it's difficult to know how to plan.
Even the worst case scenario in FIRECalc may not be bad enough to reflect what the future may hold.
Having part of your allocation in equities might be a good idea for 'balance' reasons, but it doesn't take the fear out of it. I have less than ever allocated to stocks and I have plenty of fear going on these days.
Perhaps not completely, but do you allow your fear/emotions to dictate your investments?
The only place to be right now is in cash and cash equivalents.
me too ..I allow it to dictate my med consumption.
No, thanks.You can always hedge stocks by going long/short...
And for anyone keeping score at home, I think that we have a self-sustaining recovery underway as long as the financial system does not come apart. BDI up another chunk yesterday and the freight futures market spiked even as equities dropped. Off in the background, containership rates have recovered in the last few months and continue to rise. PSVs in the North Sea have gone from laid-up ships (docked for lack of work) 3 months ago to a sold-out market as of yesterday. Yeah, the markets are dropping, but the real economy of moving "stuff" seems to be chugging along.
DOW futures off 209 this morning. I wish the markets would read your posts.
I was going to say crazy people, but I guess panic, manipulation, over-reaction and anything to do with the guvmint all fit just as well.Difference of opinion (and panic, manipulation, over-reaction, gubmint intervention, space aliens,etc.) Makes a market.
Difference of opinion (and panic, manipulation, over-reaction, gubmint intervention, space aliens,etc.) Makes a market.
And it is still made up...
DD
Agreed.
I keep looking for reasons to be scared but I don't see that much changing on the "real" economy front... .
A little fact checking and historical basisAnd for anyone keeping score at home, I think that we have a self-sustaining recovery underway as long as the financial system does not come apart. BDI up another chunk yesterday and the freight futures market spiked even as equities dropped. Off in the background, containership rates have recovered in the last few months and continue to rise. PSVs in the North Sea have gone from laid-up ships (docked for lack of work) 3 months ago to a sold-out market as of yesterday. Yeah, the markets are dropping, but the real economy of moving "stuff" seems to be chugging along.
05-22-2008, 01:02 PM #196 brewer12345
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by CCdaCE
Ran across this article on marketwatch. Summary is: A daily gauge of ocean shipping rates that serves as a widely-followed leading economic indicator has roared back to new highs after dipping earlier this year, highlighting both the resilience of the global economy and surging inflation pressures.
-CC
Idiotic article in many respects. The BDI reflects what is going on in the BRIC economies, the steel industry, and a shortage of shipping tonnage and port capacity caused by decades of underinvestment. The index is quite volatile, but the underlying causes will take years and a lot of capital to resolve, so it will remain at relatively high levels for the forseeably future. Unless, of course, the Chinese and the Indans stop building out infrastructure, growing their populations, and would rather sit in dark, unheated buildings in the winter.
__________________
Quote:5/17/2008
Originally Posted by dm
These stocks are up over 50% since March. I'm not thinking of selling all of them, just lightning up a little. I was adding when they were down and now wonder if they have gotten ahead of themselfs.
05-22-2008, 01:02 PM #196 brewer12345
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
The stocks are way behind the surging fndamentals. I intend to hang on as the media alerts the retail rubes that things are great in the industry and then I will sell when the idiot crowd rushes in and bids up the stocks. Expect this to happen within a few weeks to 6 months
5/18/2008Originally Posted by Texas Proud
And what is a target on NM
I believe it is worth $20 to $25. Having said that, let me give you an important caveat. There is currently a massive squeeze on for ships, to the point of a dire shortage vs. the cargos that need to be moved. If the squeeze goes further than I am expecting (think BDI north of 15,000), the stock may be worth considerably more.
A little fact checking and historical basis
As of right now the BDI (and NM) is 25% of where it was in May of 2008 and still below last November's high and has made no meaningful new high. The BDI has never confirmed the recovery in the economy as the stock market indicated may happen, it may in the future but it needs to get over 5,000 and hold it for an extended period to get to a prior much lower level.
And for anyone keeping score at home, I think that we have a self-sustaining recovery underway as long as the financial system does not come apart. BDI up another chunk yesterday and the freight futures market spiked even as equities dropped. Off in the background, containership rates have recovered in the last few months and continue to rise. PSVs in the North Sea have gone from laid-up ships (docked for lack of work) 3 months ago to a sold-out market as of yesterday. Yeah, the markets are dropping, but the real economy of moving "stuff" seems to be chugging along.
Be my guest to do as you see fit. The reality is that the peaks of the BDI north of 10,000 were unsustainable and heavily driven by some short term things (principally congestion). The smarter management teams (like NM's) knew this and locked in long term charters at the time even though they often got something like half or less of spot rates for doing so. I view BDI of 4000-6000 as the likely long term sustainable range and base my valuations of companies/assets on that. You are free to do as you wish.
And FWIW, I think that the BDI is a lousy economic predictor. I merely mention the action in the dry bulk and other shipping sectors as a contrast to what is going on in the markets. The market action would have you believe that the world is grinding to a halt. I do not see that in the real-world industries whose fundamentals I follow closely.
Speaking of space aliens, this guy is apparently suffering from an alien abduction hangover. I'm always amazed at his constant message of gloom & doom, but this time old Paul has taken it to a new level:(...panic, manipulation, over-reaction, gubmint intervention, space aliens,etc.)
Whaddya bet he's buying on the dips?Think bear, think crash, think end of capitalism, think Great Depression II ...