IndependentlyPoor
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Time to find my rusty razor blades, run a warm bath, and light some candles.
The container lines also mothballed a lot of ships and let a lot of crews go in order to reduce capacity and give them room to raise rates.
Inland trucking rates are also going up dramatically for the same reason. Over a hundred thousand trucks were parked during this recession and all it took was a little uptick in demand for shippers to see a huge change overnight. Sixty days ago I could take an order first thing in the morning and often get the truck loaded late that day. Now it is taking 2 to 3 days and the rates have gone up 20%.
I can't find a chart (that I can cut and paste here) that shows the entire history of the index, but here is one from its inception to sometime in late 2008.As of right now the BDI (and NM) is 25% of where it was in May of 2008 and still below last November's high and has made no meaningful new high. The BDI has never confirmed the recovery in the economy as the stock market indicated may happen, it may in the future but it needs to get over 5,000 and hold it for an extended period to get to a prior much lower level.
Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way, but it seems to me that the BDI at 4,000-ish reflects something closer to long-term normal than the historic high of almost 12,000 or the low at 700-ish. In fact, 4,000 may be just a bit high.
My guess is that the demand for iron ore by China still has a lot of impact here in the shorter-term. Still, I'm not sure comparing the index at its current level against a high that was way outside its normal trading range is the right way to look at it.
I've had a large percentage of my savings in gold and gold funds since 2001, and the rest in foreign currencies. At that time it was easy to foresee what was going to happen economically.
I've had a large percentage of my savings in gold and gold funds since 2001, and the rest in foreign currencies. At that time it was easy to foresee what was going to happen economically.
Speaking of space aliens, this guy is apparently suffering from an alien abduction hangover. I'm always amazed at his constant message of gloom & doom, but this time old Paul has taken it to a new level:
Crash is dead ahead. Sell. Get liquid. Now Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch
Whaddya bet he's buying on the dips?
REWahoo, I read this guy today and I think if he has any money at all, it is invested in ammunition, canned goods, bottled water, chain link fence, surveillance cameras, land mines, pit bulls and a mountain top. Oh yeah, and he's single too!
I hope everyone realizes that "a blog is a blog etc.etc." Everyone has an opinion and he gets to publish his. I hope he didn't get paid for that.
Debasement of currencies is not an extreme idea... it's simply what happens when too much money gets printed.
Sure, but be careful not to look at only one side of the equation, and just part of it at that. Money isn't being created, it's being destroyed. Every time a borrower defaults, money evaporates . . . poof. Meanwhile, the transmission mechanism by which the Federal Reserve would typically create money to offset that destruction is gummed up. So we have money destruction on one side and a neutered Fed on the other.
IMO, the Fed is far from neutered, it is too powerful.........
My dad is a classic conservative investor with requisite dose of depression era "gold bug" in him. One of the few people I know who made money from precious metals in the early 80's. I can still remember about 5 bags of silver stuffed in the basement. We used to play "fun" poker with the quarters. He sold 3 of the 5 bags right at the "Hunt Brothers" peak. We used a red wagon to wheel em into the broker to sell (heavy suckers). When I think back on it, the Hunt Brothers turned it into a pretty nerve racking speculation, but it helped put me and my 3 brothers through college. I still think it is a challenging investment that doesn't win often, but I own some silver bags, gold coins and mining stocks now because DD wouldn't let me sleep if I didn't. They've done quite well. Thanks again Dad
A post I made in Dec 2005.
Well now up to >20% of the total stash mostly in physical metal with a minority in mining stocks with the rest of the portfolio in more typical diversified assets. Plan to stay this way for awhile but will allocate out at some point. Not a gold bug or a tin hat person. No barrels of oil or MRE's.
No desire to convince anyone here and I accept that we could be wrong about further upside potential. Just leaving a data point and another thankyou Dad (no matter what happens)! Cheers!
One aspect of this board that I do not like is its very rapid rejection of anything off the beaten path.
The board is great for many things, but thinking carefully about investments and interactions of macro and micro evens and politics are not among those things.
My practice is to try to turn off my hearing aid when the quick slams come.
Ha
Ha, Pfizer has very deep pockets.My practice is to try to turn off my hearing aid when the quick slams come.
Which you have said repeatedly in the past. I agree to a certain extent. Having said that, I think far out ideas and detailed investment theses are best spun out via PM with interested parties. In a public forum, if you want to go out on a limb you should expect to put forth a very robust case or get buried by challenges.
US money supply plunges at 1930s pace as Obama eyes fresh stimulus - TelegraphSure, but be careful not to look at only one side of the equation, and just part of it at that. Money isn't being created, it's being destroyed. Every time a borrower defaults, money evaporates . . . poof. Meanwhile, the transmission mechanism by which the Federal Reserve would typically create money to offset that destruction is gummed up. So we have money destruction on one side and a neutered Fed on the other.
The clear and present danger is deflation, not inflation.
Sure, at some undefined point down the road, assuming no policy reversal and assuming we extricate ourselves from the liquidity trap that Japan couldn't, run away inflation is a possibility. But as you well know, 'we're all dead in the long-run'. In the here and now, deflation is still the bigger risk.
One aspect of this board that I do not like is its very rapid rejection of anything off the beaten path.
If "buy gold" is "off the beaten path" ...
I agree. Inflation fears are mainstream. What is off the beaten path is the idea that -perhaps- deflation is the bigger threat. And a lot of people who call for "open minds" were quick to dismiss the deflation scenario as ludicrous.