After tiring of overly complicated models and spreadsheet, I did something similar. I included a column showing total funds across all assets as well as a column for taxable and non-taxable income (non tIRA withdrawals). I agree with the suggestions to hide columns, or copy a few to another...
Too much in equities and you may have too much risk of drawdowns, not enough and you have other risks such as inflation. The advise to "stay the course" is fine but I know many people that lost their jobs at the same time their portfolio was virtually wiped out (not just high equity but stocks...
My wife didn't like flying and then chose to stop around 2010. We pull a trailer (even went cross country with it). There is so much to see in the US and traveling with an RV is a great way to travel. You get to bring your stuff and stay in comfort every night, no surprises, no bed bugs. We...
We had a similar issue. Kitchen sink was snaked, all was fine for a week or two, and then it backed up again. Second time they ran a camera through it and confirmed that the line sags a little, allowing water to sit, and also evidence of grease. There is something the plumbers can do with...
FYI, This is not true, at least in the US. Mortgages are a matter of public record. I know someone that looks up whether people have a mortgage, and the amount, all the time. A quick google search will confirm this. This is what I got:
Mostly I ignore it but I do this when it bothers me and it doesn't bother me as much. It almost always helps immediately but often for only a very short time.
Same thing only with a 10 minute description to describe something that takes 30 seconds:
I was laid off at about your age and I celebrated, making a point to tell my kids that money in the bank is better security than a job. My job was a good paying work from home job, but I never liked it. I took 2 years off thinking maybe I would never have to work again, but that wasn't really...
We put in a 30 amp 220 outlet for our Tesla Model 3 long range. It charges over 20 miles per hour which is plenty for us. It cost under $1k to install and much of that cost was running the wire through the walls and attic from one side of the garage to the other. I use the cable the car came...
As I see it, the market is up the most since July. The S&P 500 as measured by SPY was up 8.13% in October and 9.21% in July. Such volatility is normal for a bear market, and also at the end of a bear market. I have no idea which it is.
What is interesting to me is that the Dow outperformed...
I recently retired from a major health insurance company. Before I left, an executive mentioned to me that he was a little uncomfortable with his new position, as his team's compensation was based in part on the savings from denied claims. Like the original article said, the insurance...
I know a couple people that have had Covid and lived with others, including my son living in an apartment 1/2 the size of your house, and sharing a bathroom. Everyone masked while in the common areas (outside their own bedroom) and it did not spread. It's certainly no guarantee but it didn't...
My wife and I had a simple solution for that. We bought cheap gold bands as secondary rings that we could wear places where we were concerned our primary rings might be at risk. An additional benefit for me is that my secondary rings fits a little tighter, so I often switch to that one when it...
I've always used 100 because I am an optimist and don't want to run out of savings, but perhaps I wasn't optimistic enough.
The richest American men can expect to live to 87, as always women a little longer. The Equality of Opportunity Project
While I am not in the top 1% I would argue that...
Yes, I have faced such choices and sometimes opted for time over money. Fairly early in my career my manager was talking to me about adding another project to my plate and I suggested that I would rather go part time and do the one than be working more than full time to do the two - and she let...
According to the USDA, it is illegal to advertise eggs as healthy, nutritious, or even safe. If the egg industry can't overcome a US government agency on this, then I have to think the evidence is pretty strong against eggs...
I agree that valuation is notoriously difficult to use for timing in the short term. After all the studies showing it's (argued) effectiveness generally use a 10 year period. I read some time ago about a market timing strategy that assigned the market into quartiles based on valuation and...
NOTHING produces optimal results, certainly not a strategy that can lose 50-80% of principle at times. I prefer data to witty quotes, some of which are demonstrably false.
So I could show you more data and you could then explain why you find it flawed or unconvincing. We have different...
Again with predictions. From Google:
We do agree that the stock market cannot be predicted, but while you seem to stop there, I go further to assess what we do know about it. For example, the D-Day invasion required low tide at sunrise and a full moon. Something easily predicted months in...
You were the one who started throwing numbers around and asked me for one. Now you reject it because it is not perfect? I would rather have an imperfect estimate than a WAG.
I would say that he explained some variance over the nearly 100 year time frame rather than rejecting what didn't fit...
To assign a number I first took a quick look for the accuracy of the 10 year forecasted returns from CAPE (Cyclically adjusted PE Ratio). According to this article (link below) the 10 year forecasts are highly accurate over the past 25 years - 95% of the time the actual return was within 2.74%...
I absolutely agree with international diversification, but if the US goes down most other countries tend to follow. With US valuations lower only than the 2000 highs, most valuation based estimates that I have seen for 7-10 year US stock market returns are negative. No one knows what the...
I'm not keeping 20 years cash reserves and I'm certainly not working longer. A decades long bear market may not be likely but the probability is certainly well above 0 and the impact, if it happens, is very significant. So I take steps to mitigate that risk and as a result my allocation to...
And what would you advise an investor in Japan to do? They are still waiting for new highs since 1989. A lot of investors from the late 1980's didn't live long enough to see new highs.
Think that can't happen here? Why not? It did before. Actually 25 years for the DJIA price to recover...
Personally I am too risk averse to buy and hold 100% in equities, even if I had an income stream covering all expenses. Reading this thread helps me better understand current market valuations. The old rule of thumb was to own one's age in bonds. It feels almost surreal to see retirees...