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I was refer to the infection fatality rate...in the very early days (when Northen Italy & NYC were on fire) there was concern that it might be as high as several percent, more recently it appears that it might be closer to ~0.7% for a 60 year old. Because my wife and I are healthy, BMI <25...

Seeking analysis on post-covid health issues... My wife and I were talking about C19 risks a few days ago. She gets a fair amount of her pandemic information from AM talk radio and thinks that we've overreacted to the virus. She made the point that the IFR has been coming down steadily as...

I had my TKR on 11/30/16. Because the inner half of my knee had no cartilage for a decade or so, the MCL (inner ligament spanning the femur & tibia) had shortened enough to prevent normal installation of the new knee. The surgeon removed it from the tibia, installed the new knee, and reattached...

Great to hear from you, Dory!

They made an attempt to address that in ******** last January, making it slightly more conservative than Firecalc. Version 1.25 - 1/14/2014 - Changed how bond returns were calculated, due to discussions in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=119

Have a look at this post and those that follow: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/firecalc-and-the-hapless-y2k-retiree-69942-2.html#post1398601 I don't think this issue has been resolved.

The first calculator Willer linked in reply #7 addresses the bond issue.

Mike, I don't know the particulars of your FIREcalc runs, but retirements beginning in 1968 and 1969 are frequently shown as failures. My guess is by shortening the duration of the retirement period your 40 year runs include 1968 & 1969 (with one of both shown as failures), while the 45 year run...

FIREcalc includes data though 2012. By selecting the longer period you eliminate failures beginning in the late 60's that were included in the shorter retirement duration.

Set your annual withdrawal to $0, but add 4% (or whatever annual % you want to model) to the portfolio annual expense ratio. You can also model combinations of the two to look at variable & fixed SWR's. Cb PS: credit for this technique belongs to SGeeeee

have a look at this one: Bogleheads • View topic - JonoJono1: Improve, Revise, Update, Debug Simba's Backtester

As far as I know, the FIREcalc dataset hasn't been updated in over 2 years. The owner hasn't bothered to respond to PM's I sent in May & July regarding it's status. I'm quite pleased to have learned about your efforts, Bo. Cb

I haven't had any problems with it. He's set up a board (linked at the top) for development suggestions and bugs if you'd care to describe the problem you're having. I'd imagine it'd be tough getting an site like that sorted out for different browsers, tablets, etc, but it looks like he's...

I found this linked today on the Bogleheads board: Crowdsourced Financial Independence and Early Retirement Simulator/Calculator Looks to me like it includes returns data through 2012. Cb

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I think this piece is worth reading... "Bonds promoted as offering risk-free returns are now priced to deliver return-free risk."

I think it'd be worthwhile to indicate the span of the data set used at the "top" of FIREcalc, or in the results, or both. I spent ~5 minutes looking around FIREcalc and all I saw was a Change Note indicating that 2007 data had been added. The results of a default run refers to 111 possible 30...

I don't have any input for you with respect to the resistance level, but have an idea that might ease the strain on your knees. I've got a lousy right knee, and found that my natural stroke on the Concept 2 allowed me to slide too far forward, bending the knee to a greater degree than I'd...

Yeah. Once my investment portfolio's annual returns started to exceeded my salary on a regular basis I was far less inclined to go the extra mile to try to get a ~3.7% raise on an 18 month basis rather than a 2.6%. Blazing Saddles - We Must Do Something! Harrumph! - YouTube Cb

My most recent purchase was a 2012 Mustang GT. There are a handful of pretty active Mustang forums, so I was able to learn about a few peculiar incentives: - one was a $750 brochure coupon that appeared in a significant percentage of the brochures sent out in response to requests submitted to...

We were born in '59 & '60. I used 75% of the SSA's estimates when I began ER planning a decade ago, but use 90% these days because we are now so close to the hands-off age of 55. I assume 100% SS benefits will be taxed as ordinary income.

Ages 51 & 52 70% stock (1/2 Int'l), 10% CCF, 20% TBM I retired 6 years ago, wife retired yesterday w/ HC bennies I'd plannd to shift another 20% to FI upon her retirement, but can't bring myself to do that after reading Warren Buffet's "return-free risk" column a few months back...

I've got a Grade IV chondral defect on the medial side and increasing wear in the other 2 compartments. My doc says that ~20 years without an ACL repair (I had a "workaround" procedure instead to stabilize the knee) accelerated the wear to the medial side cartilage. About 5 years ago I...

Did you hold the portfolio allocation constant as you increased the duration, or seek an optimal Equity/FI split for each? Cb Edit: Doh! Just saw your reply to the earlier question. Years ago I did that exercise and found that increasing equities as the period went beyond 30 years helped...

From the podcast transcript: "Guest: ...So, disability claims rise very rapidly when the unemployment rate rises. And we've seen a dramatic increase. So, for example in 2011 there were 2.9 million applications for SSDI; that compares, let's say, to 2005 when there were 2.1 million...