Fidelity can be way off in their estimates. I’m glad to hold that fund in my IRA.
Fidelity sprang another surprise at me in the last few days. In my main (big) bond fund, once in a while there is a "spike" in its December dividend. This happened in 2009, 2010, and 2011, the first 3 full years I was in the fund. Because it happened in December, it messed up a little bit my ability to maximize my state tax deduction on the federal return for the year in question.
This "spike" was a one-day, sharp increase in the daily mil rate for the bond fund for a single day in the middle of December. It was like getting a 13th "monthly" dividend in the middle of December, one which was not usually shown in any of the November estimates for year-end distributions.
But then this "spike" disappeared starting in 2012 and December was a normal month. That is, until this month. This time, instead of a "spike" which would appear as part of the December monthly dividend, I just received the "spike" as a separate dividend a few days before the end of the month. It does give me time to make any changes to my estimated state income tax payment, but it's moot this year because I won't be itemizing my deductions any more. Still, there was no signal anywhere that this extra dividend was going to pay out; nothing in the November estimates.
I hadn't checked the Fido website for a few days once I saw the huge cap gain distribution which sent me wayyy over the ACA cliff the day before this dividend paid out. And because my taxable account isn't technically a "brokerage" account, it isn't set up to shot out emails to me when distributions are made (they used to do this, though). This sets me up for the occasional "surprise" distribution like this one, where I won't learn about it right away.
