2018 YTD investment performance thread

[Golden sunsets]

First posting for the current year. Up .21%. I tend to not look at any of this stuff when it isn't pretty. I know it could be a lot worse.

AA 53/42/5

 

[Freedom56]

+3.69% YTD overall (all accounts) including interest payments. The best performers - Centurylink 7.5% 2024 notes, Qwest 7.75% 2031 bonds, U S west 6.875% 2028 bonds, General Electric 6.75% 2018 notes, and Allied Capital 6.875% 2047 notes. I bought more of the Centurylink, Qwest, and U S West issues in early December 2017 and it's working out well so far (The Level 3 management will turn things around). I have a lot of cash waiting to pick up bargains. As bond funds continue to sell due to redemptions, I am waiting with low ball bids. It's a matter of time before equities really tank due to PE compression. The coming rate inversion also won't help. We've all seen this movie before.

 

[24601NoMore]

I bought more of the Centurylink, Qwest, and U S West issues in early December 2017 and it's working out well so far (The Level 3 management will turn things around).

I hope you're right. Storey and Patel did a great job at LVLT but CTL was a mess and declining in a big way before the merger. Old CTL CEO Post should have been shown the door years ago and it was good to see him hand things over to Storey long before it was otherwise planned. We have a good chunk of the common stock and the dividend (currently north of 11.5% [!]) is going to be a nice income stream in ER - IF it doesn't get cut (which CFO Patel insists it's not..we shall see..)

If Wall Street ever figures out CTL is not another FTR or WIN, Katie bar the door. Could be a very solid upside play (mid 30s - 40s easy) that also just happens to kick off quite a nice div (currently $2.16 or a stock trading in the mid 18s).

 

[redduck]

I was up 18.5% for the first quarter on mostly Chinese internet stocks (Tencent,Baidu,Momo,JD), This last month has actually been piss poor.

Nice going on the year-to-date. While at times tempted, I find that I don't have the courage to invest in individual Chinese stocks. ( I mean why do that when I can get hammered with my AT&T right here at home?).

 

[Freedom56]

I hope you're right. Storey and Patel did a great job at LVLT but CTL was a mess and declining in a big way before the merger. Old CTL CEO Post should have been shown the door years ago and it was good to see him hand things over to Storey long before it was otherwise planned. We have a good chunk of the common stock and the dividend (currently north of 11.5% [!]) is going to be a nice income stream in ER - IF it doesn't get cut (which CFO Patel insists it's not..we shall see..)

If Wall Street ever figures out CTL is not another FTR or WIN, Katie bar the door. Could be a very solid upside play (mid 30s - 40s easy) that also just happens to kick off quite a nice div (currently $2.16 or a stock trading in the mid 18s).

I don't have any common stock. I prefer to be further up the food chain. Confusing this company with Frontier and Windstream is stupidity. Centurylink is profitable. The interest coverage ratio improved after the merger. Qwest/U S West and Level 3 are tier 1 ISPs. With the combined company, Centurylink is the largest tier 1 ISP and has the largest internet back-bone on the planet. In other words, everyone who uses the internet pays them indirectly. Storey and Patel are smart managers. I know several small business owners in the Los Angeles area who are subcontractors to telecom companies. Prior to the merger, they rarely had to drop prices for Level 3 work and their quotes were always accepted. Since December 2017, they are forced to drop their bids by 25-30% if they want the work. Many planned projects in not so nice areas in Los Angeles have been cancelled. They stated that investments would be zip code focused for demographics that have the ability to pay for services and not blindly rolling out fiber everywhere. They also have stopped investing in consumer cable TV development and have focused investment in business services and streaming video delivery. Their Q1 earnings are coming out in just over a week and given that the common stock has been creeping up slowly since the end of the last quarter in a down market, I would speculate that the street is expecting evidence of a turn-around. We shall see.

 

[Alan]

XIRR -2.69% as of May 2nd

AA 48/47/5

 

[CardsFan]

YTD: +0.11% (after adjusting for spending)
AA: about 55/35/10 (cash includes CD's)

Not going to complain about a sideways year, if that is what we get. Total portfolio is 21% more than retirement day (1/1/16), even after spending.

 

[marko]

Not going to complain about a sideways year, if that is what we get. .

Me neither as dividends/interest keep filling my spending bucket, BUT...I wish I better understood the 'why' of this stallout. Earnings are good/great, unemployment is very low, overall economy is in good shape.

There's the 'excuse of the day' (tax cuts, interest rates, Apple's dramas, political nonsense, etc) but earnings should be the driver; once one excuse of the day passes another excuse crops up.

 

[kgtest]

Glad to know someone else also has MMM. Do you have FCX (Freeport McMoRan) too? They gave up the gain of 2017 in a hurry. Darn!

Valero (VLO) is the star of my portfolio last month. Just do not have enough of it.

I do not own FCX I'll have to run it through the screener. I picked up MMM right before some innovation center announcement in the news. I'm emotionally attached since so many people I know have or do work for MMM here in town.

Then again, over in Charlottsville where everyone works at GE it seem much less rosy. Maybe buying opportunities if anything else. I'm in MMM for at least another 13 years.

 

[HFWR]

Me neither as dividends/interest keep filling my spending bucket, BUT...I wish I better understood the 'why' of this stallout. Earnings are good/great, unemployment is very low, overall economy is in good shape.

I think most of those are already baked into the cake...

 

[Tallman4123]

-0.35% through April 30th. AA is 58/37/5 AA

 

[RobbieB]

As of April 30, up 1.2 %.

 

[Eastbayboy]

As of today +1.86. Thanks to AAPL and AMZN. Wesley is down 3% ytd which is half of my holdings. AA is 67/21/12.

 

[Lawrencewendall]

As of 4/30 - up 1.77% for the year
YTD - up 3.23%

50% in Willshire 4500 index, the rest is in monthly/quarterly dividends payers.
Love those dividend paying stuff!

 

[HFWR]

Down 3.7%, or about the amount I withdrew in January...

 

[NW-Bound]

End of Jan: +5.79% YTD
End of Feb: +2.06% YTD
End of Mar: +0.63% YTD
End of Apr: -1.09% YTD

End of May: +3.05% YTD

What goes up in May that I have: semiconductor, biotech, energy sectors.

What's down: Emerging markets.

AA according to Quicken: Stock 74.31%, Cash 22.34%, Bond 3.35%.

 

[pb4uski]

1.23% YTD at the end of May vs 6.89% YTD as of a year ago.

Also, quite a bit better than my benchmark Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund which was 0.26% YTD 5/31/2018

A whopping +0.37% at the end of April vs +0.12% at the end of March.

What a difference from the +5.60% YTD as of a year ago.

 

[Freedom56]

+4.11% YTD overall (all accounts) including interest payments. Best performers are my high coupon Centurylink,Qwest, US West, Allied Capital notes, and Capital One Financial notes.

Higher investment grade bond/notes A- to AAA are still very overpriced relative to CDs and treasuries. Funds holding these low coupon high investment grade notes will continue to under-perform. Who in their right mind would buy Apple's 1.55% 5 year note (rated AA+) other than a bond fund. Lower investment grade short and medium term notes/bonds are starting to become more attractive but still not in the buy range.

 

[pb4uski]

So given that current investment grade corporate spreads are so poor, should I sell my target maturity corporate bond funds and reinvest in CDs?

 

[Freedom56]

So given that current investment grade corporate spreads are so poor, should I sell my target maturity corporate bond funds and reinvest in CDs?

What does it yield and what is it holding? Which fund?

 

[pb4uski]

Mostly BSCK (POWERSHARES BULLETSHARES 2020 CORP BOND ETF... 2.99%), BSCM (POWERSHARES BULLETSHARES 2022 CORP BOND ETF... 3.47%) and IBDC (ISHARES IBONDS MARCH 2020 TERM CORP ETF.... 2.79%)

These will distribute liquidation distributions in December of the years' indicated, but I would sell about a year earlier... hold BSCK and IBDC until December 2019 and BSCM until December 2021.

18 month CDs are ~2.55% and 42 month CDs are ~3.06% so I'm getting a 40-55 bp premium to CDs for A-BBB credit.

 

[robnplunder]

Pretty close to mine. I am down 0.1%. This will likely be a down year given the past years' performance.

Up 1.3%. Spent about 1% of that for 2018 budget hitherto. But the house value went up here in Bay Area, CA. I don't feel richer though.

 

[kgtest]

+5.5% for about the third or fourth time this year. Not bad for doing little to nothing.

Of course I would never complain if it were better

 

[Freedom56]

Mostly BSCK (POWERSHARES BULLETSHARES 2020 CORP BOND ETF... 2.99%), BSCM (POWERSHARES BULLETSHARES 2022 CORP BOND ETF... 3.47%) and IBDC (ISHARES IBONDS MARCH 2020 TERM CORP ETF.... 2.79%)

These will distribute liquidation distributions in December of the years' indicated, but I would sell about a year earlier... hold BSCK and IBDC until December 2019 and BSCM until December 2021.

18 month CDs are ~2.55% and 42 month CDs are ~3.06% so I'm getting a 40-55 bp premium to CDs for A-BBB credit.

I took a look at your funds.

BSCK Distribution yield is 2.08% and 1 year return is +0.6%
BSCM Distribution yield is 2.55%, 1 year return +1.0%
IBDC Distribution yield is 2.10%, 1 year return is +.94%

I would not go by SEC yield since it assumes that the bonds would be held to maturity and all income is re-invested. An ETF cannot guarantee that it will hold a bond to maturity due to fund outflows. It's also difficult to compute the liquidation NAV for the same reason.

An 18 month CD yield is about 2.55%, BBB rated corporate is about 3.33%, B
A 3 year CD is now 3.0%, BBB rated corporate is 4.33%,
A 4 year CD is now 3.1% BBB rated corporate is about 4.7%,

You need to look at your entry price for these funds to make an informed decision on what to do.

 

[pb4uski]

..... An ETF cannot guarantee that it will hold a bond to maturity due to fund outflows. ....

What you wrote here makes no sense at all... the only fund/ETF outflows are for interest distributions... these are more like a CEF and not a mutual fund... there are no redemptions... existing shares are traded in the open market.