2018 YTD investment performance thread

[Dtail]

I am amazed by how well most of the posters are doing in this thread, outperforming the market.

+1
With the % of total market and S&P funds up what they are, I was surprised at how many YTD's are above 5% since many are between 40-60% equities.
I guess some have individual stock winners and there might be many posters who could be doing worse than 2% YTD who don't wish to post.

 

[target2019]

S&P 500 is up 6% plus. Add some APPL and AMZN to goose the number.
Another thought is that we may hear results from younger investors who are all in, 100% equity.
Good fortune to all!

 

[KCGeezer]

I’m one of the 2%’s. 60/33/7. Bond fund has been killing me. Should’ve taken others suggestion about setting up a bond ladder I guess. Oh well, still ahead of the projections I made when I pulled the plug.

 

[corn18]

I’m one of the 2%’s. 60/33/7. Bond fund has been killing me. Should’ve taken others suggestion about setting up a bond ladder I guess. Oh well, still ahead of the projections I made when I pulled the plug.

While your total value of your bond fund has gone down, it will be paying you more in dividends. Just have to hang on long enough for it to pay off (generally the average duration of your fund). Do not despair.

 

[audreyh1]

I’m one of the 2%’s. 60/33/7. Bond fund has been killing me. Should’ve taken others suggestion about setting up a bond ladder I guess. Oh well, still ahead of the projections I made when I pulled the plug.

When you rebalance, you’ll add more. And what you add will also earn higher rates.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am amazed by how well most of the posters are doing in this thread, outperforming the market.

About 1/2 of my 5.1% return YTD (on 66% equity AA) comes from selling options on volatile sectors such as semiconductor, biotech, and emerging market.

When they go up, I say they are not that good and sell out-of-the-money calls. The idea is to sell at strike prices high enough that I think they will not reach, and I pocket the option premiums without having to sell the shares. This way, I squeeze more money out of the stocks I hold.

When they go down, I say they are not that bad, and sell put options to buy more at even lower prices. Hopefully they do not go that low, and I again get to keep the option premium, and my cash too without having to buy anything. This way, I squeeze more return out of my cash than I can get any other way.

This is not without danger though. In March, I found myself owning several hundred $K in semiconductor due to call options getting exercised. Add to that a few more hundred $K in biotech ETFs, and you know the feeling when they were all dropping.

I then sold call options with out-of-the-money strike prices that were low enough so they hit. I then made some money and reduced my concentration in these sectors at the same time.

I commit no more than 1/3 of my cash to cover put options. I also write calls on no more than 1/3 of my stocks.

It's fun when it works.

 

[Cpadave]

Based on Quicken Investment performance report, changing the date to 1/1-12/31/2018 so it does not annualized the return : +4.35
AA: Stocks 63.5%, Fixed Inc 28%, Reits 6.5%, Cash 2%.
Fixed income and Reits are self managed and stocks are mostly domestic index funds.

 

[thepalmersinking]

13.09% ytd.

 

[RockyMtn]

3.77 ytd on AA of 62/34/4.

 

[NW-Bound]

... This is not without danger though. In March, I found myself owning several hundred $K in semiconductor due to call options getting exercised. Add to that a few more hundred $K in biotech ETFs, and you know the feeling when they were all dropping.

I then sold call options with out-of-the-money strike prices that were low enough so they hit. I then made some money and reduced my concentration in these sectors at the same time...

Oops, make the above "put options".

 

[robnplunder]

More power to the huge winners. I'd think playing the market is a zero sum game so things may catch up with some. Until then, let us bask in the glory. As for me, I am going for 5% YTD gain when 12/31/18 comes. That'd be sweet - no "losing season" since I retired about 3 years ago. Knock on wood.

 

[Dtail]

More power to the huge winners. I'd think playing the market is a zero sum game so things may catch up with some. Until then, let us bask in the glory. As for me, I am going for 5% YTD gain when 12/31/18 comes. That'd be sweet - no "losing season" since I retired about 3 years ago. Knock on wood.

5% YTD at year end also sounds about right for my wishes.
First full year of retirement, was up like everyone for partial year RE last year.
Plus increase in NW then.

 

[NW-Bound]

After the return of last year, I will be happy with something like 5% for this year, with a stock AA of around 65%.

But I think it would still be fair if I get more than most people. After all, I have had very little bonds for more than a decade, and missed out on the bond return that other balanced investors enjoy.

Time for bond holders to give some of that back. A pundit, Bernstein I believe, said some years ago when bonds went ballistic that bond investors would give back their "undeserved gain" in the future.

 

[audreyh1]

Retirement assets are up around 3.4% YTD.

 

[corn18]

After the return of last year, I will be happy with something like 5% for this year, with a stock AA of around 65%.

But I think it would still be fair if I get more than most people. After all, I have had very little bonds for more than a decade, and missed out on the bond return that other balanced investors enjoy.

Time for bond holders to give some of that back. A pundit, Bernstein I believe, said some years ago when bonds went ballistic that bond investors would give back their "undeserved gain" in the future.

I buy bond funds for total return. If the NAV goes up, the yield goes down and the total return normalized to the duration is constant. If the NAV goes down, the yield goes up and the same thing happens: total return normalized to the duration is constant. Make sure you match your duration to your needs and life is good. I like 5-7 duration as I am 3 years from retirement.

 

[NYEXPAT]

I am about 1% away from my "nut" for 2018. Currently, I am in mostly T-bills biding my time until we get closer to the midterms. I would get back in if we get a late summer swoon of 5-7%.

 

[NW-Bound]

I buy bond funds for total return. If the NAV goes up, the yield goes down and the total return normalized to the duration is constant. If the NAV goes down, the yield goes up and the same thing happens: total return normalized to the duration is constant. Make sure you match your duration to your needs and life is good. I like 5-7 duration as I am 3 years from retirement.

The short bond funds have not lost money, but the total return over the last 12 months is around 1% for the ones I glanced at. That is less than the inflation rate.

The I bonds I have had for a while yielded [-]4%[/-] 3.33% total over the last 12 months. I also get much better than 1% return on my cash by writing put options, but of course there's some risk.

PS. Edit to correct error above.

 

[NW-Bound]

By the way, the latest available year-over-year inflation number is for June 2017 to June 2018. It is 2.87%.

So, if your return is less than that, you have lost money. Even my I bonds that earn 3.33% in the trailing 12 months lose money if I consider the tax I will be paying on the bogus gain.

 

[street]

^ thanks for that information. Glad you are back posting again.

 

[wdberry62]

6.4% through July 31.

 

[maybesomeday]

I’m up 16.9% so far, and a friend just texted me on Friday he is all cash, so I might sell some high flyers this week!!

 

[DennisT]

July 31 up 8.7% for the year in my fractional portfolio of short stock and commodity options (10.67% as of Aug 8).


The stock options are short straddles a la Tastytrade, the short commodity options are 30 day delta 0.10 straddles. The commodity shorts took a beating with the announcements of the recent tariffs (go Soy!!) but have come back about 50%.

 

[DennisT]

I am amazed by how well most of the posters are doing in this thread, outperforming the market.

Yes, Shankar Vehantham had an article on Hidden Brain about this, a bias towards positive results. I think it's not so much that people are fudging their reports, but when things are down they tend to not look, not wanting to know. Human nature.

 

[RobbieB]

As of 7-31, Merrill Lynch stock picker dude up 8.5% (inclusive of fees)

 

[Dtail]

Yes, Shankar Vehantham had an article on Hidden Brain about this, a bias towards positive results. I think it's not so much that people are fudging their reports, but when things are down they tend to not look, not wanting to know. Human nature.

Or they don't wish to share on this site, when others are doing better. Nothing wrong with that, but also part of human behavior.