ScaredtoQuit
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2007
- Messages
- 211
Some time this year (maybe as late as Dec) I will ER. When I do, I will take my defined benefit contribution pension in the form of a lump sum. The lump sum is currently based on the 30 year Treasury Rate so I've been watching it like a hawk. The lower the rate, the higher my lump sum will be. e.g. If the rate is 4.72, my lump sum is equal to 190 times my monthly annuity computation, at 4.95% it's 185 times, at 5.2% 180 times, and so forth.
Just my luck. I'm coming down the homestretch and the durn thing has been going up almost every single day this month!!
I know much of this is a result of the Chinese Government deciding to diversify their holdings into other currencies besides the dollar, thereby eliminating the "artificial" demand that has been depressing the rates of U.S. long term debt securities. A friend of mine claims that this policy is manifesting itself in the form of the Chinese (and the Indonesians too) dumping treasury bonds in the market. He also claims that once the dumping is completed, rates will decline because all the other indicators point to a lower rate.
Does this seem reasonable to anyone? Does anyone have a feel for when the dumping would be completed? Any other insights? The decision of which month I retire in could have a very big impact on my nestegg.
Just my luck. I'm coming down the homestretch and the durn thing has been going up almost every single day this month!!
I know much of this is a result of the Chinese Government deciding to diversify their holdings into other currencies besides the dollar, thereby eliminating the "artificial" demand that has been depressing the rates of U.S. long term debt securities. A friend of mine claims that this policy is manifesting itself in the form of the Chinese (and the Indonesians too) dumping treasury bonds in the market. He also claims that once the dumping is completed, rates will decline because all the other indicators point to a lower rate.
Does this seem reasonable to anyone? Does anyone have a feel for when the dumping would be completed? Any other insights? The decision of which month I retire in could have a very big impact on my nestegg.