obryanjf
Recycles dryer sheets
As a continuation of previous work, I have modeled 5 withdrawl models with the Ty Bernicke model and then have added extras, which are pension and SS.
The link for the previous discussion is here http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=7648.15.
In rough and rounded terms for the 40 year sims, as I see it, using Ty's model on the fixed yields 5% SWR's and on the Hybrid model yields 6.0+% SWR's. When I add extras, all the models SWR's are increaded by about 0.5%
I have not included the extras graphs due to the each person having a different number and value of extras. I have tried to be pretty generic in the values I have used but with extras that is not possible.
Failures for 40 year sim, 4% to 10% draws for all models.
This shows a specific simulation for all models, 40 years with starting withdrawls from 4% to 10%. The fixed model starts to have failures at 5% and the other models start to have failures at 6%. All models quickly fade away as the withdrawls are increased slightly as indicated by the sharp slope of all lines after the break point.
Family of Failures for all models from 10 to 50 year sims
This graph again is the point of all models over 10 to 50 years simes and what is plotted is the first point at which failures start to occur. Decreasing withdrawl rates for longer simulation is what should be expected.
40 year Fixed model w/ Ty included and 5% draws starting
Now this shows all the withdraws (inflation adjusted)expressed as a % of the initial withdrawl. So the starting value is 100% and thereafter upper or lower. It decreases as the Ty model reduced draws over time, until 75 where the withdrawls stop decreasing with age. Notice the tight distribution around the average.
The dotted red line is the average withdrawl percentage over time and uses the right axis. My interpretation is that I would get a bit nervous when that percentage is 10% to 15% to 20 % and increasing.
40 year Hybrid model w/ Ty included and 6% draws starting
This again shows all the withdraws (inflation adjusted) expressed as a % of the initial withdrawl. So the starting value is 100% and thereafter upper or lower. It generally decreases as the Ty model reduced draws over time, until 75 where the withdrawls stop decreasing with age. With the Hybrid model, there is much more variability as the portfolio value determines part of the withdrawsl. Also notice the average decreases initially until 75 and then increases to about the 100% mark.
The dotted red line again is the average withdrawl percentage over time and uses the right axis. For the Hybrid model, the withdrawl % is lower than the fixed model.
DYODD
job
The link for the previous discussion is here http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=7648.15.
In rough and rounded terms for the 40 year sims, as I see it, using Ty's model on the fixed yields 5% SWR's and on the Hybrid model yields 6.0+% SWR's. When I add extras, all the models SWR's are increaded by about 0.5%
I have not included the extras graphs due to the each person having a different number and value of extras. I have tried to be pretty generic in the values I have used but with extras that is not possible.
Failures for 40 year sim, 4% to 10% draws for all models.
This shows a specific simulation for all models, 40 years with starting withdrawls from 4% to 10%. The fixed model starts to have failures at 5% and the other models start to have failures at 6%. All models quickly fade away as the withdrawls are increased slightly as indicated by the sharp slope of all lines after the break point.
Family of Failures for all models from 10 to 50 year sims
This graph again is the point of all models over 10 to 50 years simes and what is plotted is the first point at which failures start to occur. Decreasing withdrawl rates for longer simulation is what should be expected.
40 year Fixed model w/ Ty included and 5% draws starting
Now this shows all the withdraws (inflation adjusted)expressed as a % of the initial withdrawl. So the starting value is 100% and thereafter upper or lower. It decreases as the Ty model reduced draws over time, until 75 where the withdrawls stop decreasing with age. Notice the tight distribution around the average.
The dotted red line is the average withdrawl percentage over time and uses the right axis. My interpretation is that I would get a bit nervous when that percentage is 10% to 15% to 20 % and increasing.
40 year Hybrid model w/ Ty included and 6% draws starting
This again shows all the withdraws (inflation adjusted) expressed as a % of the initial withdrawl. So the starting value is 100% and thereafter upper or lower. It generally decreases as the Ty model reduced draws over time, until 75 where the withdrawls stop decreasing with age. With the Hybrid model, there is much more variability as the portfolio value determines part of the withdrawsl. Also notice the average decreases initially until 75 and then increases to about the 100% mark.
The dotted red line again is the average withdrawl percentage over time and uses the right axis. For the Hybrid model, the withdrawl % is lower than the fixed model.
DYODD
job