Getting that feeling in my gut again. The S&P just feels to frothy so I’m “Aggressively Rebalancing” and pulling all 2024 spending from equities this week. No math. No expert recommendations. No Technicals. Just gut feeling.
Not really a large enough amount to make any difference really. 62/38 to 58/42 AA
It’s worked out well a few times now.
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/dirty-market-timer-100610.html
Hope the Santa Rally continues. Might pull 2025 spending too.
Like you, in the past, I've sometimes scraped 1/3 or 1/2 of gains in sectors whose values have rocketed and seem a bit pricey, to send to cash for the next year or two withdrawals. With cash at close to 5% now, this is a lot more painless than it has been when cash was .2%.
Like you I've been a little nervous about those gains in the Nifty 7 or whatever they are called. I looked at one of my core funds, Fidelity Contrafund, and it is almost up 40% and is highly weighted, like the index, on those top 7 S&P stocks. So I sold about half of the gains, and stuck them in small/mid cap and a fairly long intermediate Treasury fund, to increase bond duration.
Otherwise, I did more work than I've done since 2015 before semi-retirement, and got rid of 9 funds scattered across 5 accounts by consolidating smaller bond and stock fund holdings. If it's not at least 3.5% of my total portfolio, it's not worth holding, and by 2025 I want to increase that criteria to 5%. My Quicken holdings, including the stocks, fit on one screen now! It's a little complicated by money scattered across 5 accounts, but it used to be 6 accounts (I'm not counting two extremely small Roth IRAs) and I can move the DW's Etrade IRA roll-over to her main Fidelity IRA account next year, to simplify even more.
Not all of my sales/additions have posted, so I'll have to look at Quicken over the weekend, look at the new allocations, and do some more clean-up on Jan 2, including targeting what to use for withdrawals in 2024. Part of the overall goal was to decrease large-cap growth and increase value and intermediate bond holdings, but I may have misunderestimated some.