Dawg52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Talking heads saying stock market will test new lows for the year. Fed will probably cut rates. What to do? Buy, sell or hold?
Talking heads saying stock market will test new lows for the year. Fed will probably cut rates. What to do? Buy, sell or hold?
Brewer, would it be better to buy KRE now (before rate cuts) or wait untill they actually happen...or start happening?
Thanks
4,000 jobs isn't a lot to be down.......
DCA and hold? That's my inclination, at any rate.
If "cheapest prices in 10 years" isn't good enough then I'd hate to see your version of the bottom.I would wait for real declines before buying and banks would be the last item on my list until the entire scenario plays out. Despite all the assurances that they are not effected Countrywide continues to hit new lows.
Brew, I'm sure you're a big fan of Hussman.
He says banks aren't cheap enough, and that they often get down to book value.
Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: September 3, 2007 - The Problem With Financials
If "cheapest prices in 10 years" isn't good enough then I'd hate to see your version of the bottom.
Goldman today released their data that shows prime mortgage issuers have seen a 50% increase in deliquent mortgage payers. This is not in keeping of the basic theory that Brewer is proclaiming with the regional banks which also is at odds with the FDIC study that writeoffs are increasing everywhere for banks. Enough for now time will tell.
Brew, I see a P/B of 2, declining revenue, and declining earnings. I think housing sales volume still has a way to fall, and banks will continue to see declining revenue for a while still. Long-term, banks may be a good bet. I just think they may get a bit cheaper, even with a fed funds cut.
There has been a slowdown in the housing market, both nationally and locally, as evidenced by reports of reduced levels of new and existing home sales, increased inventories of houses on the market, stagnant to declining property values, an increase in the length of time houses remain on the market and increased mortgage delinquency levels. No assurance can be given that these conditions will improve or will not worsen or that such conditions will not result in a decrease in our interest income or an adverse impact on our loan losses.
While we continue to originate multi-family and commercial real estate loans, we do not believe that recent market pricing for multi-family and commercial real estate loans supports aggressively pursuing such loans given the additional risks associated with this type of lending.
Additionally, as a result of the recent market pricing and the additional risks associated with these loans, we are currently only originating multi-family and commercial real estate loans in the New York metropolitan area.
So you are saying that even though they are legally on record as of 8/8/07 saying these loans are not giving returns to offset the risks so that they are cutting back those loans but actually are getting better returns on them than ever in past years?