California-style real estate appreciation in brush country

[Souschef]

Right now in both Northern and Southern CA we have a big blip in prices. Due to the fires up North and near me in SoCal, a lot of these people will not rebuild, but will either buy or rent.
This is putting tremendous pressure on both the rental and house markets.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Conservative Californians leaving this state?

A former Riverside County, CA resident facilitates moves to the Dallas area. I’ve seen a few articles like this one:

https://www.npr.org/2017/08/27/5463...atives-fleeing-liberal-states-like-california

Maybe that trend has extended to your area. The Hill Country is very appealing to this Texas-born Californian.

And if you recall, back in 2006-2007, there was a HUGE influx of Californians moving to San Antonio. When we lived there (2006-2013), my DW was a RE broker and I would say that a good 40% of her clients in the first years were folks moving from California to Texas. The Stone Oak area of San Antonio was FULL of California transplants. The story was repeated over and over...sold a home in California for an BIG OLE BAG of Hundred dollar bills...used half of it to buy a Stone Oak McMansion. Yep...all about a year before it came crashing down. Is it happening again? I don't know...but it wouldn't surprise me.

We have a Realtor friend that has a home on acreage out about 20 miles west of San Antonio (bought in 2007). They finally got tired of the increasingly bad traffic, so put the house up for sale. About a year ago, the average "Days on Market" was 50 or more. They were under contract within 36 hours of it hitting the MLS...and with an offer of 110% OVER asking price.

And I wouldn't call the area north of San Antonio "flyover country"...at least not until you get up near Kerrville. I think I recall the OP mentioning that they lived in the vicinity of Boerne, which these days a definite suburb of San Antonio.

 

[Big_Hitter]

While that very well may be true, Idaho didn't make the top ten list on this report from Trulia today: Californians Are Leaving, Where Are They Looking to Go?

Top five migration states: Nevada, New York, Arizona, Texas, and Washington.

that's just coastal californians

 

[REWahoo]

I thought all Californians were coastal...

You have anything you can link to show California to Idaho migration stats?

 

[Big_Hitter]

I thought all Californians were coastal...

You have anything you can link to show California to Idaho migration stats?

yes, what I just posted shows the breakdown of who immigrated to idaho in 2016

(mod edit)

 

[Big_Hitter]

 

[REWahoo]

Much easier to read and comprehend. The other link was making my head spin.

 

[Big_Hitter]

Much easier to read and comprehend. The other link was making my head spin.

I'll delete it

 

[cathy63]

To look at it another way, here's the number of people per hundred-thousand residents who moved to Idaho from each state. I.e. the number in the chart above divided by each state's population/100k and rounded off. (I used Wikipedia's 2017 state population estimates, and the chart is for 2016 immigration, so the numbers might off by a small amount, but the rankings should be accurate.)

Texas	9
California	43
Colorado	55
Arizona	62
Oregon	68
Nevada	110
Washington	127
Utah	239
Wyoming	523

This explains why most Californians don't know anyone who wants to move to Idaho, while Idahoans think lots of Californians are coming. Really it's the Wyomingites who are leaving in droves, but there are so few of them to begin with they hardly make an impact on their destination.

 

[Breedlove]

Wahoo
You are in that area .................Last week I was talking to a group of people from Los Angeles and they were explaining that they love the Austin area and it is now like little LA . I think being in SA you are close enough to feel the fleeing from California . Nice except taxes eat you alive . too bad you can't do an AG exemption.

 

[REWahoo]

We have a Realtor friend that has a home on acreage out about 20 miles west of San Antonio (bought in 2007). They finally got tired of the increasingly bad traffic, so put the house up for sale. About a year ago, the average "Days on Market" was 50 or more. They were under contract within 36 hours of it hitting the MLS...and with an offer of 110% OVER asking price.

Probably one of my neighbors.

Traffic out this way really is the pits. I know a number people who could no longer stomach the commute into SA and sold. You really need to be retired or work remote to live out here.

 

[Teacher Terry]

Why do people from Wyoming want to move to Idaho?

 

[NW-Bound]

Why do people from Wyoming want to move to Idaho?

+1 I am curious too.

About the growth of San Antonio, we first visited it in 2001 or so to go see the Alamo and the Riverwalk.

In 2013, drove through the city on an RV trip to/from New Orleans. I could not recognize the place. It was as bad as Phoenix during rush hour. Was not like that during our first visit.

 

[97guns]

 

[REWahoo]

About the growth of San Antonio, we first visited it in 2001 or so to go see the Alamo and the Riverwalk.

In 2013, drove through the city on an RV trip to/from New Orleans. I could not recognize the place. It was as bad as Phoenix during rush hour. Was not like that during our first visit.

San Antonio has serious traffic congestion issues but that doesn't seem to stop people from moving here. Found this from last week:

Remember the Alamo? Yep, that's San Antonio, site of the ill-fated battle between Texan independence fighters and Mexican troops in 1836. These days, the Texan city about an hour and a half southwest of Austin and three hours west of Houston is rallying residents for a different reason. It saw an influx of more than 24,200 new residents from July 1, 2016, to July 1, 2017, according to the report. That was the most of any U.S. metro—and it was already the country's seventh most populous city.

To meet that demand, builders are putting up scores of single-family homes in several large, master-planned communities on the west side of the city. And move-in ready, three-bed, two-bath abodes priced under $250,000 are going off the market in a matter of days...

Guess this explains what's happening to residential real estate prices.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/reales...-Growing-U-S-Cities-Aren-t-Where-12949429.php

 

[Mango1956]

Right now in both Northern and Southern CA we have a big blip in prices. Due to the fires up North and near me in SoCal, a lot of these people will not rebuild, but will either buy or rent.
This is putting tremendous pressure on both the rental and house markets.

+1

 

[Big_Hitter]

Why do people from Wyoming want to move to Idaho?

the weather in wyoming is terrible

 

[Big_Hitter]

To look at it another way, here's the number of people per hundred-thousand residents who moved to Idaho from each state. I.e. the number in the chart above divided by each state's population/100k and rounded off. (I used Wikipedia's 2017 state population estimates, and the chart is for 2016 immigration, so the numbers might off by a small amount, but the rankings should be accurate.)

Texas	9
California	43
Colorado	55
Arizona	62
Oregon	68
Nevada	110
Washington	127
Utah	239
Wyoming	523

This explains why most Californians don't know anyone who wants to move to Idaho, while Idahoans think lots of Californians are coming. Really it's the Wyomingites who are leaving in droves, but there are so few of them to begin with they hardly make an impact on their destination.

great analysis!

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

Probably one of my neighbors.

Traffic out this way really is the pits. I know a number people who could no longer stomach the commute into SA and sold. You really need to be retired or work remote to live out here.

I won't mention the specific community, but they have private wells. And when the drought was so bad a couple of years ago, they spent almost $20K digging deep enough to get water again. They spent almost a month trucking in water. Country living...gotta love it, right?

Speaking of which I am hearing that Medina lake is getting low again...although not as bad as it was a few years ago, when it was less than "5% full". I always thought the way they reported it was odd...I wouldn't say "5% full", I would say "EMPTY".

And almost 25,000 people moving there in a YEAR!?!? I thought that there were way too many people there when in left in 2012...before In N' Out Burger showed up...

 

[REWahoo]

I won't mention the specific community, but they have private wells. And when the drought was so bad a couple of years ago, they spent almost $20K digging deep enough to get water again. They spent almost a month trucking in water. Country living...gotta love it, right?

They were fortunate that they only had to truck in water for a month. At the time (2011) the drilling companies had such a huge backlog that some out here trucked in water a year or more while they waited for a new well. Both inconvenient and expensive.

We went deep (over 800 feet) when we put in our well in 1998. A lot of folks saved money (they thought) by going to only 500 feet and they paid for it in the long run. When the water table dropped below that level during the drought, we had to have our submersible pump lowered but that was cheap compared to those who had to drill deeper, plus pay to have water delivered while they waited.

And then there was the guy I know who had to have a new well drilled after his submersible pump burned up when the water level dropped, causing it to explode/expand so that it could not be extracted. New well, new pump, a 3,000 gallon storage tank = $30k, but the driller went bankrupt and never sent him a bill.

 

[Huston55]

As someone who lives in a completely overpriced (but paid for) home in pricey CA I was laughing a bit at your price per square foot... In my particular hood the $/sf for a 40-55 year old home is over $400/foot. I have no idea how people afford this stuff. There are 3 houses a block over from me that are similar size to ours (without the granny flat) for over $1M. Ridiculous... these are older tract homes. Sure we're in a good school area, and pretty close to the beach (10-15 minute drive)... but over a Million for 2200 sf? obscene.

Like you, I don't plan to sell, so it's not an issue.

I expect a correction here in San Diego soon because Qualcomm is laying off engineers... That is a big pool of high paid tech workers.

It’s all relative right?

I was laughing @ your laughing.
I’d buy here in a NY second @ $400/sf.

 

[REWahoo]

As someone who lives in a completely overpriced (but paid for) home in pricey CA I was laughing a bit at your price per square foot...

Reminds me of the time right after I retired in 2005 and was clearing some brush near the road when a guy drove by and stopped to chat. Said he was from California and worked for Toyota (they were building a plant in San Antonio at the time). He was curious as to what houses cost in the area. I'll never forget the look on his face when I told him a 2,500 SQ FT custom built house on 5 acres - including the well and septic system - would run around $300k.

 

[Avalon]

Pretty interesting how that area has grown up. I spent most of my youth on a ranch not far from where OP is. That area was all big ranches at the time. This would be late 50s through the 60s. My brother and I occasionally helped work cattle on a big place near the lake. My grandfather's spread at the time was 850 acres on two different places. The home place was off 16, the other place off 1283 (Red Bluff).
A lot of those ranch owners were WW1 vets. Mostly Marines. Lots of memories of those days.

 

[Breedlove]

Where is that area that they advertise on TV they say Texas hill country homes ( shells ) and 2 acres of land 120 K ....or am I dreaming ...........
We live between College Station , Montgomery and Huntsville and the property here seems to be going up also . Undeveloped , no power or water well is going for 13K per acre in small tracts . 10 acres or less. Years ago we paid 1600 per acre. Seems everyone wants to leave the cities but when they hear the price they balk. Everyone here wants to live in the Sam Houston forest , I guess because bigfoot has been seen there !

 

[REWahoo]

Pretty interesting how that area has grown up..

What's unusual (to me) about how the area has developed is the fact the property right around the lake has seen only a small fraction of the development the surrounding acreage (those former ranches) has seen. Much of the property right around the lake is junky. I think that's due to a couple of reasons.

Since the lake's purpose is for irrigation, the lake level fluctuates dramatically. There is no minimum level below which they stop using the lake water for crops. This devalues lakefront property as the shoreline can, in some shallow areas, vary from 100 feet from your lakeside house to several hundred yards away during the year.

The lake was created prior to WWI and the original developers sold hundreds of unrestricted small lots on and around the lake. Roads and other infrastructure was never put in place to support developing these small lots, so much of what has been built is old, small and of questionable quality.