REWahoo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give
Buy a gun and two bullets. Use the second one if you miss your head with the first.
Calling the bottom!
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Dawg52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Buy a gun and two bullets. Use the second one if you miss your head with the first.
So I take it you don't think another depression occur?
REWahoo
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give
CuppaJoe
Moderator Emeritus
....Just wondering what one could do now if they truly believed a depression was coming.![:-\](https://www.early-retirement.org/sk/forums/images/smilies/undecided.gif "Undecided :-\")
For starters, realize the difference between economics and emotion. Dawg, you have so much going for you to save you from the street. Secondly, know the difference between Wall Street and the street. Anyone care to add to this nonsense, "direct your feet to the sunny side of the street"?
This is what I will try to do whether I think a Depression is coming or not. Realize that a portfolio will fluctuate as it is being drawn down. Take another look at FIRE CALC that many of us accepted when the DOW was at 13,000. I accept that this year I may lose my cushion, next year I may be into the main number I retired on. That was part of the deal I made. When I ran the numbers, I could have retired on a number 20% less, so I tell myself, I will still be okay for a long time.
And as a practical matter, I won't look at the numbers too often.
Dawg52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
just do the opposite of what this guy says and you should be OK. i've been watching him on CNBC for over a year and he's been wrong every time.
Charts Predict: Dow to 6,700 in 'Accelerated' Slump - Companies * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com
Charts Predict: Dow to 6,700 in 'Accelerated' Slump - Companies * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com
I'd ask Paul Farrell if he's hiring.Just wondering what one could do now if they truly believed a depression was coming.
Oh, wait, depression and not Depression? In the case of the little "d" then I'd consult a doctor. The submarine force has been testing out these amazing anti-depressants...
CuppaJoe
Moderator Emeritus
Dawg52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Excuse me for posting.
Westernskies
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Just wondering what one could do now if they truly believed a depression was coming.
Stock up on beans, baloney, and bullets.
unclemick
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Hang in there - bundle up for a long winter. There was a guy on the news giving away his season tickets to the Chiefs after last Sundays loss to the Saint's and there were tv interviews of scalpers out front with unsold tickets. Plus Monday I had to get his 13 yr old from school - head cold from the game - he was working.
Sometimes these things take longer to sort out than we can watch and worry.
Pssst Wellesley - 5.84% SEC yield and the Norwegian widow owns 5/10 of their top ten dividend stocks.
heh heh heh - we gotta be close. Unfortunately we could bump along for a while.
Sometimes these things take longer to sort out than we can watch and worry.
Pssst Wellesley - 5.84% SEC yield and the Norwegian widow owns 5/10 of their top ten dividend stocks.
heh heh heh - we gotta be close. Unfortunately we could bump along for a while.
W2R
Moderator Emeritus
Just wondering what one could do now if they truly believed a depression was coming.
All those things our Depression-era parents told us to do (Young Dreamers, we are probably talking about your grandparents). Here are some that I recall:
- Pay off the mortgage and all debt.
- Save money any way you can.
- Develop a lot of varied skills to make money off the books, rather than from a job.
- Grow vegetables
- Learn to can.
- Use a clothesline rather than paying for a dryer
- Use space heaters or a wood stove, not central HVAC
- Pray a lot (I'm going to skip this one! )
- Be kind to others in need, because you might need them to be kind to you one day.
dixonge
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
this thread is deliciously ironic
W2R
Moderator Emeritus
heh heh heh - we gotta be close. Unfortunately we could bump along for a while.
I hope you are right about being close! I just have no idea at all of what to expect in the next few years. Guess we can play it by ear.
Bikerdude
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I would expect a long slog back up. There will be selling at all rally levels as investors continue to get out of equities. Many people (myself included) have readjusted their risk level and that means less equities going forward. So if I plan to lighten on a substantial rally I would expect many others to do the same. I think many people have soured on equities (and Wall st. in general) and it will take some time to bring them back. Just my .02 worth.
BTW I'm not glum about it and plan to live my life to the fullest possible.
Hey, no offense intended. In a thread full of other jokers I thought you were yukking it up with the rest of the crowd. Or perhaps I was misled when you posted that photo of a smoking gun.
Whether it was a Depression or a depression, I think you'd draw the line at giving up golf.
Dawg52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Moemg
Gone but not forgotten
No problem. I probably am depressed. Think I will go bang my head for a while.
I think I may join you . The constant downward market is getting to me .
Bestwifeever
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I thought along these lines too, BD, but now I'm changing my outlook. My little voice is telling me that the individuals who stayed in are going to stay in. The sellers are the hedge funds, etc., who have to get out. Only when they are all out, the bottom will be reached. When the market goes back up there are a lot of risk-averse individuals who will get back in once [-]we[/-] they feel like the bottom has been reached. The people who are already in will see their portfolios rebuilding and will not pull out.
This is my opinion based on that little voice in my head
Bikerdude
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I like your opinion more than mine.I thought along these lines too, BD, but now I'm changing my outlook. My little voice is telling me that the individuals who stayed in are going to stay in. The sellers are the hedge funds, etc., who have to get out. Only when they are all out, the bottom will be reached. When the market goes back up there are a lot of risk-averse individuals who will get back in once [-]we[/-] they feel like the bottom has been reached. The people who are already in will see their portfolios rebuilding and will not pull out.
This is my opinion based on that little voice in my head
Gardnr
Recycles dryer sheets
I thought along these lines too, BD, but now I'm changing my outlook. My little voice is telling me that the individuals who stayed in are going to stay in. The sellers are the hedge funds, etc., who have to get out. Only when they are all out, the bottom will be reached. When the market goes back up there are a lot of risk-averse individuals who will get back in once [-]we[/-] they feel like the bottom has been reached. The people who are already in will see their portfolios rebuilding and will not pull out.
This is my opinion based on that little voice in my head
Yep, there are a lot of people who have gotten out in fear and panic convinced that it will keep going down eternally (depression talk all around us), so when it starts to go up many of those people will start feeling just the opposite, afraid to miss out on the gains. It'll take quite a bit of upward movement before they're convinced though. And there will be some rallies and dips that will shake some out. But history shows that strong initial recoveries are launched from these kinds of levels.
Look at '74. Things looked terrible back then after a long bear, with high inflation, oil crisis, etc. The market roared back up about 73% in a year a a half before flattening out and moving sideways for a long time until the big BULL started in '82.
So it's my contention that the money will be made in a short period of time, and if you're out down here and try to move in after it's moved up convincingly you're going to be disappointed again. Hopefully we don't have significantly more down side from here, but I'm keeping some cash ready in case we do. I just have to keep myself from moving it in too soon!
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The BULL started in 1982.
Gardnr
Recycles dryer sheets
The BULL started in 1982.
Oops, sorry. Meant to say Bull!
Darryl
Full time employment: Posting here.
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Come on guys, the bottom is near, the only good option is to grind it out. Betting on a loss may guarantee it for your portfolio. Plenty of folks on this board that were buying 2000 to 2008 and did well.
Yeah I moved my plan to increase bonds by 2% a year instead of 1%, but at 45 with probably 10yrs to ER following the AA and buying at prices that may be the buy of the century is the plan I'm executing. You folks pointed me at Four Pillars and a bear market for an accumulator should be a dream come true, what a waste if I am too frightened to buy. So I am buying.
Yeah I moved my plan to increase bonds by 2% a year instead of 1%, but at 45 with probably 10yrs to ER following the AA and buying at prices that may be the buy of the century is the plan I'm executing. You folks pointed me at Four Pillars and a bear market for an accumulator should be a dream come true, what a waste if I am too frightened to buy. So I am buying.
Dawg52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Well, DOW down 400 plus points...
Looks like that ahole Roubini is going to get his wish. DOW 6,000 coming up. But that's ok, I'm Mr. Happy.
Looks like that ahole Roubini is going to get his wish. DOW 6,000 coming up. But that's ok, I'm Mr. Happy.
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