Consumer Reports survey: Hybrids are most reliable vehicles

[ken830]

To me, when I think about why anyone would specifically buy a Prius, I think it's for the fuel efficiency or "greeness" (or the image of it). If that's true, then they would've all moved on to EVs that offer way better fuel efficiency. Same with many any other category of vehicles and this is growing as EVs are made available in more vehicle categories. People who buy cars primarily for acceleration or performance? Moved on to EVs. People who buy cars primarily because of quiet and comfort? Moved on to EVs. It's just going to keep happening because the EV drivetrain is superior in nearly every metric with little or no compromises.

The thing I don't get are people giving Tesla $15k (used to be less but still significant sum of money) for FSD, with no promises that it will ever work or could be used during the time they own the car.

Those are fanboys.

I currently own two Teslas with FSD option. The FSD Beta works pretty well. Sure, I guess I'm a fanboy of Tesla, but I was a fan more than 10 years ago, so I don't think I'm a fanboy for the sake of being a fanboy. I genuinely love their products.

As for FSD: It's ironic because Tesla makes vehicles that are SOO fun to drive and they also make the best software to allow you to NOT have to drive. I have it because I am a huge AI fanboy and work at an AI startup and would like to keep my finger on the pulse of leading-edge AI products. As I've said before: the coming of AI will change absolutely everything in our lives and will make the huge changes brought on by the Internet and smartphones look like peanuts. I totally called it in the mid 90's before the web & the Internet took over and I'm seeing AI now as an even stronger wave of change.

 

[dixonge]

The thing I don't get are people giving Tesla $15k (used to be less but still significant sum of money) for FSD, with no promises that it will ever work or could be used during the time they own the car.

Those are fanboys.

I really don't get this take from a lot of people. It doesn't actually take a lot of in-depth research to discover the facts:

1. Over 400,000 Tesla drivers now have access to the beta version of FSD. I don't know how many use it, but that's a far cry from 'no promises that it will ever work or could be used' - 400,000 can use it right now! The first batch of drivers have been using it for over two years.
2. While you *can* pay $15,000 to buy this feature outright, you can also pay a mere *cough* $199 a month for it.
3. Some people like plain Teslas just fine, others pay extra for the enhanced autopilot features, and some pay even more for the FSD beta features. That doesn't require you to be a fanboy.
4. Up until October 2020, yes, maybe you were a bit of a 'fanboy' to pre-order this feature. But then you probably got it for 1/3 the current price ($5000)
5. Given Musk's penchant for underestimating product development timeframes while selling the overall vision, none of these buyers/users should be surprised when it takes longer than expected. They should adjust expectations. BUT - when you realize that AI is guiding your car, making decisions on the fly, and driving you around town... that's what you're paying for. It's way more than just enhanced cruise control on the highway.

I currently own two Teslas with FSD option. The FSD Beta works pretty well. Sure, I guess I'm a fanboy of Tesla, but I was a fan more than 10 years ago, so I don't think I'm a fanboy for the sake of being a fanboy. I genuinely love their products.

Just curious, did you pay before the beta rollout? What rate structure did you get and/or use?

 

[ken830]

Just curious, did you pay before the beta rollout? What rate structure did you get and/or use?

In my 2018 Model 3 Performance, I had originally purchased Enhanced Autopilot. That was $5k. I think the original price for FSD at the time was $5k?? I think later that year or 2019 (I can't remember exactly), the upgrade to FSD was offered at $2k, but I didn't jump on that. It went up to $5k a couple of months later and that's when I purchased it. So, I paid $10k, but keep in mind that back then, standard Autopilot wasn't free either. I didn't request the Autopilot HW3 (from my HW2.5) upgrade until Elon Tweeted that the FSD Beta request button was coming.

On my 2022 Model X, I ordered that in 2021 (11 months prior delivery) and I added FSD for $10k just when the price increase was announced. I originally wanted to add FSD after vehicle delivery on a credit card, but with the imminent price increase and no delivery date in sight, I had to add it onto the order..

 

[explanade]

People who use FSD, how much can they rely on it?

So you have to have your hands hover over the steering wheel in case you get signal to take over.

What do the terms you agreed to say about a deliverable schedule or what kind of automation it will have? Does it spell out which level of autonomous driving they will deliver and WHEN they will deliver it?

That's what I meant by "no promises" of ever delivering it, in the legal sense.

Most impartial observers don't believe computer vision alone will be sufficient to achieve level 4 or 5.

 

[ken830]

Most impartial observers don't believe computer vision alone will be sufficient to achieve level 4 or 5.

Emphasis mine. There's no way you can substantiate that statement. I work in an AI company and that is not the general consensus among the people I associate with.

 

[explanade]

Emphasis mine. There's no way you can substantiate that statement. I work in an AI company and that is not the general consensus among the people I associate with.

Which company do you think is likely to reach level 4, Tesla or Waymo?

 

[GenXguy]

A friend who had a 2012(?) Prius helped me move a mutual friend. I had a '99 CRV. His Prius held almost twice what my CRV would hold, yet the CRV was bigger on the outside. I'm saddened to see Prius go for style over function.

Agreed. I had considered Prius for my next car, but was debating on something like a RAV4. Anyway, not something I am doing in the short term.

 

[Sunset]

Not necessarily. For many Tesla owners, I suspect it's more important to belong to the "tribe" than to have a more trouble-free vehicle.

Don't know about Tesla, but I've certainly seen that with folks I know, buying Ford or GM, repeatedly.

 

[ken830]

Which company do you think is likely to reach level 4, Tesla or Waymo?

You can ask irrelevant questions all you want, but all you'll get are irrelevant answers. Not trying to be cheeky.

I can picture one possibility 5-10 years in the future: When someone buys a personal transportation vehicle, it's going to be fully autonomous or have full-autonomy capabilities. If we go with that assumption, it's clear that those vehicles will have a set of cameras. I'm confident every single person working in this space and nearly every layperson, including yourself, will agree to that statement. The presence of other sensors such as radar, ultrasonics, LiDAR, etc.?? Well, that's not so clear. So, the perfection of camera-based perception is required and, as Tesla has demonstrated, inevitable.

It's clear that AI model training requires access to nearly endless samples of extreme edge cases, of which can only be obtained in the real world with a large fleet in very diverse environments. No one but Tesla has been able to deploy a large-enough number of data-gathering-capable sensors throughout the world. They were able to achieve this not just because of some technical prowess, of which they have in spades, but because they are able to do it in a cost-effective-enough manner that allows this even be a possibility. We don't know how much each Waymo vehicle costs to purchase, retrofit, deploy, and operate, but it's going to be a heck of a lot (infinitely) more than what it costs Tesla, which is a negative number -- because Tesla makes a profit on each vehicle sold (and, by the way, an unbelievably-healthy profit at that) and each vehicle, whether the purchaser buys Enhanced Autopilot or FSD or not, is fully loaded with the cameras and inference processor required to participate in data gathering as needed by Tesla.

On the technology side, there are several main pieces to solve this problem -- training, inference, and modeling. In all of these areas, Tesla has proven to be leaders when it comes to capabilities and scale. An example is their recent demonstration of using a language model to traverse complex (all) intersections. This is so novel, but mind-blowingly obvious in hindsight. Tesla is absolutely 100% on the right path. They will continue to learn and iterate on the sensor hardware, inference hardware, training, and modeling fronts and they will get there.

Then there are a million other supporting pieces that make this future reality a reality... Can you make vehicles that are desirable? at a price that people can afford? can you make them in high enough quantities that it will actually matter? The sensor suite costs money and the inference processor requires power -- these negatively affect the usability of the vehicle in terms of space and range. All of these contribute to making the solution cost effective and scalable. Both of which, Tesla is the ONLY player today.

So, in summary, it's not worth expending the energy to try to answer your question because "level 4" is an arbitrary thing and whoever "reaches" this first is nearly meaningless in this future. But I have invested quite a bit time here, and countless times elsewhere with other people, to try to educate and inform them (and others reading posts like these) about what is actually relevant.

 

[explanade]

You're the one claiming computer-vision alone will be enough.

Other autonomous vehicle companies have different approaches. They most definitely are using lidars and other sensors in addition to cameras.

Now if you want to claim that Tesla will get there first, it would certainly vindicate the cameras-only approach.

But it doesn't sound like you will make that claim.


Not to mention, you said you spent well over $10k on FSD for two Teslas. That's putting money where your mouth is, even if you're not ready to say Tesla has the right approach and will get to feel 4 or better autonomy first.

 

[ken830]

You're the one claiming computer-vision alone will be enough.

Don't make any statements you can't back up. Please point out where I said this and I will apologize to you.

 

[d.davis]

My brother owns 3 prius vehicles. The latest, a 2018 model, averages 55mpg. Given the charging requirements and current grid limitations it makes sense to pursue hybrid technology for the next 20 years until infrastructure upgrades can support 100% EV. California could lead by upping mpg requirements maybe pushing hybrids to 100mpg over the next couple decades.
Pushing and subsidizing 100% EV at a time when charging capability is not ready and wont be ready for decades is nonsense.

Sent from my moto g power using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

 

[Music Lover]

People who buy cars primarily because of quiet and comfort? Moved on to EVs. It's just going to keep happening because the EV drivetrain is superior in nearly every metric with little or no compromises.

Probably 90% of vehicles are already quiet enough that you only hear the engine during acceleration. Almost all of the noise from a car comes from the tires and road noise, and the last time I looked EVs have tires too. You don't need an EV to have quiet. Or to have comfort and reliability.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

My brother owns 3 prius vehicles. The latest, a 2018 model, averages 55mpg. Given the charging requirements and current grid limitations it makes sense to pursue hybrid technology for the next 20 years until infrastructure upgrades can support 100% EV. California could lead by upping mpg requirements maybe pushing hybrids to 100mpg over the next couple decades.
Pushing and subsidizing 100% EV at a time when charging capability is not ready and wont be ready for decades is nonsense.

My state actually penalizes hybrid drivers. It has doubled registration fees on hybrids.

 

[ken830]

Probably 90% of vehicles are already quiet enough that you only hear the engine during acceleration. Almost all of the noise from a car comes from the tires and road noise, and the last time I looked EVs have tires too. You don't need an EV to have quiet. Or to have comfort and reliability.

You're not completely wrong (I don't think it's anywhere near 90% by any metric), but that's not the point. Even in the quietest of ICE vehicles, you can hear the engine during light acceleration like in traffic and in city streets. And those with start-stop system are even worse. And cranking the engine is also pretty jarring. It's something I never even gave a second thought to when I used to drive ICE vehicles, but is insanely obvious and annoying now that I have only owned EVs for the past decade+. I can hear my neighbors start up their vehicles and leave for work every morning. I never used to notice that and it's annoying.

 

[Koolau]

My brother owns 3 prius vehicles. The latest, a 2018 model, averages 55mpg. Given the charging requirements and current grid limitations it makes sense to pursue hybrid technology for the next 20 years until infrastructure upgrades can support 100% EV. California could lead by upping mpg requirements maybe pushing hybrids to 100mpg over the next couple decades.
Pushing and subsidizing 100% EV at a time when charging capability is not ready and wont be ready for decades is nonsense.

Sent from my moto g power using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

I think you are probably correct about the grid not yet ready to support all (or mostly) EVs. Regarding sates requiring 100mpg hybrids: States can pass any law they want to but a law doesn't make something possible. Due to the physics and chemistry involved in the ICE portion of the car, 100mpg cars are not currently possible unless dramatic changes in size and shape and weight are allowed.

The relatively dramatic improvement in fuel mileage by hybrids realized so far has primarily come from three sources. Vehicles such as the Prius use an ICE with an Atkinson cycle engine (more efficient but less powerful per displacement.) Secondly, the energy recapture during braking increases efficiency. Of course, the Cd has also been improved which further adds to the efficiency. Most of the possible energy savings of these three effects has already been realized. Doubling efficiency to 100 mpg seems unlikely without near quantum shifts in energy efficiency of the engine or else reducing the size and weight of cars dramatically.

I like this treatise on possible fuel efficiency of cars but YMMV.
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/100-mpg-on-gasoline/

 

[stephenson]

It would seem the way to increase "mpg" (total mileage) would be to do what OEMs have already done ... increase battery size and allow plug in.

This seems far more reasonable as it increases mileage and retains long distance driving on liquid fuel.

 

[Texas Proud]

You're not completely wrong (I don't think it's anywhere near 90% by any metric), but that's not the point. Even in the quietest of ICE vehicles, you can hear the engine during light acceleration like in traffic and in city streets. And those with start-stop system are even worse. And cranking the engine is also pretty jarring. It's something I never even gave a second thought to when I used to drive ICE vehicles, but is insanely obvious and annoying now that I have only owned EVs for the past decade+. I can hear my neighbors start up their vehicles and leave for work every morning. I never used to notice that and it's annoying.

I wonder what ICE car you had... I have a Genesis G80 and under light acceleration you cannot hear the engine (just check it out on a trip to the Dr.)... sure, my old Firebird Formula you could hear the engine at idle but I wanted that noise (oh the younger years ).... but lots of new luxury cars are really quiet..




OH... forgot to put down that I read a recent article that said it was more expensive to 'fill up' an EV than an ICE based on cost per 100 miles... could not find it though... most articles say the opposite...

 

[Music Lover]

You're not completely wrong (I don't think it's anywhere near 90% by any metric), but that's not the point. Even in the quietest of ICE vehicles, you can hear the engine during light acceleration like in traffic and in city streets. And those with start-stop system are even worse. And cranking the engine is also pretty jarring. It's something I never even gave a second thought to when I used to drive ICE vehicles, but is insanely obvious and annoying now that I have only owned EVs for the past decade+. I can hear my neighbors start up their vehicles and leave for work every morning. I never used to notice that and it's annoying.

I have the auto shut off on my car but I disable it every time I get in. Regarding engine noise, it can only be heard it under medium or harder acceleration but even then it's minimal, certainly not enough to bother anyone and not a deal breaker for most. Of course, other vehicles will be different. I can hear my friend's diesel F350 coming a half mile away.

 

[ken830]

Thing is the only way to get more efficiency out of ICE is to make it electric and then increase the battery size and reduce the ICE.... and keep doing that until... You have a BEV... which you should just skip right to. These tricks with start stop or whatever... Just give up and move to electric. It's going to happen anyways. Let's just get it over with. They are better in every way.

An ICE vehicle is loud. I used to love loud performance cars, but manufacturers and the entire auto industry has fooled us. Now, think about how powerful of an audio system you need to make that much sound audible outdoors... That's the power that could be used to move the car forward instead of displacing air to make noise.

An ICE is so ill-suited for a vehicle anyway. First of all, it can't even start itself. And when you back out of the driveway, it can't run in reverse. You need to dedicate a gear to move in reverse (which limits your speed, whereas an EV can technically drive in reverse at full speed LOL). When you get moving, it runs out of power because the power band is so narrow, it's useless. So you have to switch gear ratios. Go a bit faster and it happens again. And again. And again. And then after it gets going, it can't stop when the vehicle stops temporarily or it won't be able to start again. All of this is bonkers.

 

[ERD50]

Is this thread on it's way to a shut-down too?

The preachers just can't give it a rest, can they?

Just give up and move to electric. It's going to happen anyways. Let's just get it over with. They are better in every way.

If that were true, there would be no preaching required. No, they are *not* better in very way. Sigh.

And cranking the engine is also pretty jarring. It's something I never even gave a second thought to when I used to drive ICE vehicles, but is insanely obvious and annoying now that I have only owned EVs for the past decade+.

I'll attribute that annoyance to something other than merely the sound of the engine cranking, but I'll stop there.

-ERD50

 

[Music Lover]

Thing is the only way to get more efficiency out of ICE is to make it electric and then increase the battery size and reduce the ICE.... and keep doing that until... You have a BEV... which you should just skip right to. These tricks with start stop or whatever... Just give up and move to electric. It's going to happen anyways. Let's just get it over with. They are better in every way.

EV fans like to gush about them but they always downplay the negatives. If they were better in every way then everyone would own one.

One day they might make sense for me. Currently they don't.

 

[ken830]

It's just impossible to keep quiet perpetually when BS like getting an ICE to achieve 100mpg is thrown around. Or how it's more expensive to charge is casually thrown out there. There are many posts that I have typed and never posted over the years here. And whenever anyone tries to simply correct, it comes across as preachy and so eventually, the frustration seeps through in the tone of the posts and it's a vicious cycle. Of all the forums I participate in, this one seems to have the most strong set-in-my-ways vibe when it comes to EVs, but like most forums, those that are the most outspoken against have never owned one. But it's true that it's difficult to find a former EV owner. Now I will restrain myself from posting more.

 

[Aerides]

Earlier this month, the moderator team agreed to temporarily close the ongoing EV thread because of these consistent unpleasant arguments. The zealotry and passion of some of the EV community vs. the same in some of the ICE community. The same arguments, around and around, nastier and nastier.

The arguments spill over into other forum interactions, and leave those in the middle unable to participate, and leaving the discussion.

And so it has happened here again. Except this thread is just being closed, as a result.