COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[accountingsucks]

Once we get released from our houses, test, test, test, test, test, test
and then test some more. Quicklly, develop a serology test that will identify those who were sick and are (mostly) immune; they can work without problem and help.

Our big problem is that tests are not here for ubiquitous use. Even nurses running a fever here in Reno cannot get tested (Tuesday March 24); wrap your mind around that. So many are sick in New York that they have stopped testing, except for the hospitalized.


We need tests, we need them yesterday, and we need them particularly before people leave their homes en masse. Then you can test, identify, quarantine, and contact trace, which is how So. Korea and Singapore and other parts of China "controlled" this--and we are looking for gradual continuing outbreaks until we (I hope) get a vaccine, as soon as possible.


But first we need millions of available test (that means someone can run them today), with quick results. This is literally killing us and the containment effort. The fact that this has not occurred is extremely frustrating, because this is the cruxstone to success, economically and in terms of the public health effort. Testing is the key.

South Korea has a reliable 10 minute test. No idea why we don't steal, buy or replicate their test. We have heard about more and more testing coming for weeks now....there have been alot of tests but still woefully behind. It would be nice to have an idea when full scale number of test kids are out there

 

[audreyh1]

Once we get released from our houses, test, test, test, test, test, test
and then test some more. Quicklly, develop a serology test that will identify those who were sick and are (mostly) immune; they can work without problem and help.

Our big problem is that tests are not here for ubiquitous use. Even nurses running a fever here in Reno cannot get tested (Tuesday March 24); wrap your mind around that. So many are sick in New York that they have stopped testing, except for the hospitalized.


We need tests, we need them yesterday, and we need them particularly before people leave their homes en masse. Then you can test, identify, quarantine, and contact trace, which is how So. Korea and Singapore and other parts of China "controlled" this--and we are looking for gradual continuing outbreaks until we (I hope) get a vaccine, as soon as possible.


But first we need millions of available test (that means someone can run them today), with quick results. This is literally killing us and the containment effort. The fact that this has not occurred is extremely frustrating, because this is the cruxstone to success, economically and in terms of the public health effort. Testing is the key.

Agreed. That is how those other Asian countries ultimately contained it, otherwise it will continue to be a pubic health disaster.

 

[Midpack]

There are all sorts of “non essential” businesses that are closed that could be safely opened. They’re closed because officials don’t trust us to observe social distancing and to discourage other non essential businesses to share the same pain. When we’re out shopping some people are being very careful and others are not - checkout lines for example. Unfortunately we can’t all be trusted to do the right thing?

My wife’s fitness club re-opened on Monday - with the stipulation only 5 people in the club at at a time and they cannot share equipment. It’s a small club, women only, always was by appointment, almost personal trainer style. The equipment is well spaced and thoroughly wiped down after each person uses it. She has disinfectant wipes readily available. DW has not gone back yet, not sure. The gym may be breaking the governors directive, not clear to me.

 

[statsman]

There are all sorts of “non essential” businesses that are closed that could be safely opened. They’re closed because officials don’t trust us to observe social distancing and to discourage other non essential businesses to share the same pain. When we’re out shopping some people are being very careful and others are not - checkout lines for example. Unfortunately we can’t all be trusted to do the right thing?

That's the fine line. This is not an enviable position President Trump, the state governors and big city mayors have to face. How many people have to be trusted in order to lift the shutdown orders?

There appears to a good number of people not willing to go along for the common good. Stories about teenagers sneezing on store produce. People sneezing and spitting on others and stating they have COVID-19. Seems we already have individuals being charged with a crime related to these types of actions.

Think about everyday life. Think about places that have a buffet or a salad bar where people walk up and handle the prepared food themselves. If I'm Whole Foods, do I put out the salad bars again knowing just one person acting like an idiot (or terrorist, take your pick) claims to have infected the entire salad bar?

 

[Emerson11]

Shutdowns will end when the lawyers tell us they can end. And even then, the lawyers will profit from the lawsuits that will invariably occur at some point in the future related to COVID-19. Lawsuits involving deaths from lack of treatments, deaths *from* treatments, loss of jobs, discriminations in re-hiring, etc.

Shakespeare was spot on about lawyers in Henry VI.

I'm a lawyer, and I agree completely.

 

[fh2000]

South Korea has a reliable 10 minute test. No idea why we don't steal, buy or replicate their test. We have heard about more and more testing coming for weeks now....there have been alot of tests but still woefully behind. It would be nice to have an idea when full scale number of test kids are out there

South Korea says US asked for testing reagent
From CNN’s Sophie Jeong in Seoul

A lab technician works with testing equipment at a Bio Safety Level 3 laboratory at the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul, South Korea, on March 11.
A lab technician works with testing equipment at a Bio Safety Level 3 laboratory at the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul, South Korea, on March 11. Ed Jones/AFP/Getty Images
South Korea’s health agency says the country can export testing materials as long as it doesn’t impede its own fight against Covid-19.

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Jung Eun-kyeong, said it was her understanding that the United States had requested diagnostic reagent for Covid-19 during South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s call with President Donald Trump Tuesday.

“Five diagnostic reagents have received emergency use approval, so nearly 20,000 tests are being conducted every day in South Korea, “ Jung said at a news conference Wednesday. “We can support as long as it does not impede the domestic prevention of the epidemic.”

 

[Midpack]

Think about everyday life. Think about places that have a buffet or a salad bar where people walk up and handle the prepared food themselves. If I'm Whole Foods, do I put out the salad bars again knowing just one person acting like an idiot (or terrorist, take your pick) claims to have infected the entire salad bar?

As you probably know, Whole Foods is open but the open prepared foods services are shut down. There are other businesses that could be open or safely re-opened with some services curtailed. Not saying now, but we’re going to have to grapple with these questions sooner or later - risk v reward.

When WF reopens their hot table, I doubt I’ll use it, didn’t much before. Some services like self serve food may be reduced or eliminated due to customer (lack of) demand after this.

OTOH there are some people who are deliberately disregarding recommendations. From what little I’ve seen, we aren’t going out often, the bad apples are the exception but they’re out and about.

 

[Which Roger]

The level of safety in re-opening and visiting a business varies by population and population density. When I visit any business in the small town where I'm spending a lot of time in ER, I inevitably recognize a few people. That's not the case in the stores I frequented when I lived in the suburbs. Seeing someone I recognized was a rare exception. Also, the people that I encounter in the small-town environment have interacted with a much smaller number of different people than the people in the suburbs. And the number of interactions is much much higher than that in big cities. There is already talk of factoring this into re-opening decisions. It stands to reason that we will need to proceed much more carefully in NYC than in rural America. The more rural businesses are probably on average on shakier ground going into this than the ones in more populous areas, so I think it's good if we can get them going sooner.

 

[gwraigty]

I sent an email to the county health official on my objection citing the lack of transparency. This lack of transparency is similar to the lack of transparency in China.

They have not responded. I do not trust the government on telling me the truth. Do you?

I'm not defending inaccuracies in the numbers reported. I don't know how it's possible to report true numbers when not everyone with symptoms has been tested or will be tested.

 

[gwraigty]

There appears to a good number of people not willing to go along for the common good. Stories about teenagers sneezing on store produce. People sneezing and spitting on others and stating they have COVID-19. Seems we already have individuals being charged with a crime related to these types of actions.

A man who tried to shoplift electronics from a local Target store has been charged with a crime for defying the stay-at-home-order. The manager told the police that they've caught the man doing this before. I guess the man should have been shoplifting toilet paper instead.

 

[RetireBy90]

I'm not defending inaccuracies in the numbers reported. I don't know how it's possible to report true numbers when not everyone with symptoms has been tested or will be tested.

WSJ this morning has a couple opinion pieces that try to use others where there are numbers where an entire population has been tested and suggests that infection rates are a factor of 10 higher and mortality is likewise much lower. Just something to think about. There are other places that have tested populations and not just those with symptoms. Hrmm

 

[Gearhead Jim]

I'm thinking that the best way for Trump and the country to restart, is to give some broad guidelines to the state Governors and let them make the call(s).
The Dakotas aren't New York, at least not yet; and may never be.

 

[Midpack]

I'm thinking that the best way for Trump and the country to restart, is to give some broad guidelines to the state Governors and let them make the call(s).
The Dakotas aren't New York, at least not yet; and may never be.

IIRC The White House hasn’t done anything but recommendations and guidelines so far, only governors, mayors, etc. have forced any closures or lockdowns. So no reason to expect any different from the White House/Congress “on the way back?”

 

[Ready]

IIRC The White House hasn’t done anything but recommendations and guidelines so far, only governors, mayors, etc. have forced any closures or lockdowns. So no reason to expect any different from the White House/Congress “on the way back?”

It’s possible the White House could mandate all Federal employees to go back to work by a certain date. But otherwise it will be up to the governors of each state to determine what is appropriate for their state. So the comments about reopening the country by Easter were really meaningless.

 

[statsman]

IIRC The White House hasn’t done anything but recommendations and guidelines so far, only governors, mayors, etc. have forced any closures or lockdowns. So no reason to expect any different from the White House/Congress “on the way back?”

As should be the case. There are far too many situations in the country to be managed by a single entity. What the White House can and has done is suspend foreign travel. What is unclear is if any of those travel suspensions can be lifted to a city still in lockdown mode that has an international airport.

 

[Independent]

WSJ this morning has a couple opinion pieces that try to use others where there are numbers where an entire population has been tested and suggests that infection rates are a factor of 10 higher and mortality is likewise much lower. Just something to think about. There are other places that have tested populations and not just those with symptoms. Hrmm

Do you have a link or quotes?

 

[RetireBy90]

Page A19, "Is Covid-19 as Deadly as They Say?"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the...as-they-say-11585088464?mod=opinion_lead_pos9
May be behind paywall

 

[gwraigty]

Page A19, "Is Covid-19 as Deadly as They Say?"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the...as-they-say-11585088464?mod=opinion_lead_pos9
May be behind paywall

Yes, it is behind a paywall, so your post is useless without a quote.

 

[RetireBy90]

Ok, so here is a quick summary

Mortaility rate is number who die based on infected cases, not deaths from identified positive cases. They go on to say that of those evacuated from Wuhan were quarantined, after 14 days the percentage who tested positive was .09%. If this was prevalence in Wuhan, with population of 20 Million, then Wuhan had 178,000 infected, 30 times greater than the reported cases.
In Italy all of Vo was tested. (3,300 people) and 90 were positive. a rate of 2.7%. Play that out to provence and the reported 198 ccases suggest there were 26,000 with virus. Mortality rate goes from 8% to .06%.
Conclusion is that the mortality rate is highly inflated due to the unknown number of total cases. They conclude a 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in US if using the infection rate and assuming infected count of 6 million in US. Also, we need to include antibody testing in infected counts as many have been infected and recovered and not produce antibodies. Measures need to be focused on the older populations and hospitals.

 

[Independent]

Ok, so here is a quick summary

Mortaility rate is number who die based on infected cases, not deaths from identified positive cases. They go on to say that of those evacuated from Wuhan were quarantined, after 14 days the percentage who tested positive was .09%. If this was prevalence in Wuhan, with population of 20 Million, then Wuhan had 178,000 infected, 30 times greater than the reported cases.
In Italy all of Vo was tested. (3,300 people) and 90 were positive. a rate of 2.7%. Play that out to provence and the reported 198 ccases suggest there were 26,000 with virus. Mortality rate goes from 8% to .06%.
Conclusion is that the mortality rate is highly inflated due to the unknown number of total cases. They conclude a 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in US if using the infection rate and assuming infected count of 6 million in US. Also, we need to include antibody testing in infected counts as many have been infected and recovered and not produce antibodies. Measures need to be focused on the older populations and hospitals.

Thanks. Here's a story about the town of Vo. https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mass-testing-experiment-italian-town-covid-19-outbreak-1493183

They tested everyone in town multiple times.

I agree that antibody testing is very important. Many labs are working on tests, none are rolling out any volume in the US today.

 

[Dtail]

As should be the case. There are far too many situations in the country to be managed by a single entity. What the White House can and has done is suspend foreign travel. What is unclear is if any of those travel suspensions can be lifted to a city still in lockdown mode that has an international airport.

So for example, if NY stays closed and PA opens up totally, can the folks from PA travel to NY?

 

[USGrant1962]

So for example, if NY stays closed and PA opens up totally, can the folks from PA travel to NY?

The Federal Government certainly has authority over foreign travel. But freedom of movement between states is a Constitutional right. Within states, the state has more authority. I'm not saying travel into a hot zone is a good idea, but short of totalitarianism or martial law I don't see how it is prohibited.

From Wikipedia:

The U.S. Supreme Court also dealt with the right to travel in the case of Saenz v. Roe, 526 U.S. 489 (1999). In that case, Justice John Paul Stevens, writing for the majority, held that the United States Constitution protected three separate aspects of the right to travel among the states:

(1) the right to enter one state and leave another (an inherent right with historical support from the Articles of Confederation),

(2) the right to be treated as a welcome visitor rather than a hostile stranger (protected by the "Privileges and Immunities" clause in Article IV, § 2), and

(3) (for those who become permanent residents of a state) the right to be treated equally to native-born citizens (this is protected by the 14th Amendment's Privileges or Immunities Clause; citing the majority opinion in the Slaughter-House Cases, Justice Stevens said, "the Privileges or Immunities Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment . . . has always been common ground that this Clause protects the third component of the right to travel.").

 

[statsman]

There appears to a good number of people not willing to go along for the common good. Stories about teenagers sneezing on store produce. People sneezing and spitting on others and stating they have COVID-19. Seems we already have individuals being charged with a crime related to these types of actions.

Think about everyday life. Think about places that have a buffet or a salad bar where people walk up and handle the prepared food themselves. If I'm Whole Foods, do I put out the salad bars again knowing just one person acting like an idiot (or terrorist, take your pick) claims to have infected the entire salad bar?

And so it continues. If you think we have food shortages now, and businesses are on the edge of bankruptcy, watch what happens if the following becomes more commonplace going forward:

Grocery store loses over $35K after woman intentionally coughs on food in Pennsylvania

https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/g...-intentionally-coughs-on-food-in-pennsylvania

 

[Dtail]

The Federal Government certainly has authority over foreign travel. But freedom of movement between states is a Constitutional right. Within states, the state has more authority. I'm not saying travel into a hot zone is a good idea, but short of totalitarianism or martial law I don't see how it is prohibited.

From Wikipedia:

Okay, though I do wonder from the opposite perspective too in how would PA feel about NY travelers?

 

[BeachOrCity]

There has been much talk about the shutdowns Flattening the Curve to prevent overwhelming hospitals, but I haven't seen any statistics about how effective hospitalization actually is for C-19 patients.

Surely, more people would die without hospitalization. But many die even with hospitalization, and many more get better with little or no treatment.
Precise predictions are impossible, but does anyone have an idea of how many lives we expect to save with the shutdowns?

Actually it is the ventilators that save your life (if you get so bad you need one). Someone who declined to go to a hospital if that hospital has an available ventilator and they need mechanical assistance to breath.... well hospitalization would have saved their life.