COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[USGrant1962]

To be fair, a virus does not care about state borders.

No, but it does care about population density.

 

[GTFan]

Delta CEO had a town hall with employees recently and said he thought airlines would take 2-3 years to recover to pre-pandemic levels. That's a long time. Also said that a number of them won't survive which probably means even more consolidation.

This recovery will make 9/11 look like a kindergarten stomach bug for the travel industry.

 

[donheff]

The Federal government has no power to issue an edict/order to do so, unless Congress gives the President to do so.he Pittsburgh area.

I agree the Feds can’t (and shouldn’t) impose solutions on states. But they can lead and Congress has already given them a tool in the DPA. They don’t have to nationalize industries to use it. They can use national procurement and logistics to get testing fully deployed so the states can sensibly get back to work.

 

[Gumby]

No, but it does care about population density.

No doubt. I was thinking primarily about the situation here in the NYC-centered hotspot. To date, NY, NJ and CT have been acting in concert with respect to the timing and scope of social isolation measures, and I think it makes sense that we continue to do so, given that so many of us in the latter two states cross the border to work in NYC every day. It would make little sense to have CT open everything up while the pandemic still rages in NYC (and, to be clear, it still rages here too). Fortunately our people and our three governors appear to get along well, so the regional coordination is working. If we all went our separate ways, it would be much worse.

 

[GravitySucks]

Small business still employs over half the workforce last I looked.
As for better prepared, Airlines and hotel chains are both clamouring they havent enough income/cash to meet payroll without government intervention.
Hope there's a open and honest oversight committee to report where the $500B goes. Got a feeling there's going to be a stampede to the trough.

Thought I had, interested in comments.

Does it seem like the businesses that are (going to) take the biggest hit, maybe even go under, like mom and pop shops, salons, restaurants, independent hotels etc., are not the types of businesses that drive the economy/markets the most. And the ones that do are the bigger corporations/chains, many/most of which can ride out the virus by having people work remotely?

 

[Which Roger]

No, but it does care about population density.

Michigan has been struggling with people fleeing the more-populated areas for the less-populated areas, and finally (for better or worse) put the hammer down in the recent extension of the stay-at-home order. No vacation rentals, and no traveling between 2 residences within the state. Interesting that traveling between 2 residences, one in MI and the other in some other state, is still allowed. I assume the state doesn't have legal authority to prevent that, since it falls under interstate commerce or some other federal thing, but not sure about that.

 

[Winemaker]

I agree the Feds can’t (and shouldn’t) impose solutions on states. But they can lead and Congress has already given them a tool in the DPA. They don’t have to nationalize industries to use it. They can use national procurement and logistics to get testing fully deployed so the states can sensibly get back to work.

You are right about procuring assets, but the governors haven't demanded it yet, so it hasn't been used. I'll guarantee that if a governor demands tests to get opened back up, he'll get some tests. But there is no way in hell, 350 million people are going to get tested in the US. Once more data is in for certain areas, the bureaucrats/experts will make a decision, and the governors will go from there. And mistakes will be made.

I wish I could buy several centralized secure warehouses that will house the thousands of ventilators that were clamored for 2 weeks ago that will go (thankfully) unused. But that's what governors asked for and that's what the federal government procured.

 

[gwraigty]

Thought I had, interested in comments.

Does it seem like the businesses that are (going to) take the biggest hit, maybe even go under, like mom and pop shops, salons, restaurants, independent hotels etc., are not the types of businesses that drive the economy/markets the most. And the ones that do are the bigger corporations/chains, many/most of which can ride out the virus by having people work remotely?

Service oriented industries will come back. Why do I say that? How many people are going to be content with only going grocery shopping for the rest of their lives?

Mom & pop businesses of all kinds are most at risk. Hopefully some will survive. The major chains should be able to come back. There are many chains in the service industry. I'm not sure who you mean by "the ones that do" because most front-line people in the service industries can't work remotely.

 

[Chuckanut]

A bit of good news on the mom-and-pop front:

A young couple in my area own two coffee shops selling coffee, wine, beer, pre-made sandwiches, and assorted pastries. They closed one down and kept the other one open on the legally required 'take out only' mode. They will be re-opening the 2nd shop for take out next week. Apparently, they are getting the necessary business to employ a handful of people at the 2nd shop.

 

[MichaelB]

I agree the Feds can’t (and shouldn’t) impose solutions on states. But they can lead and Congress has already given them a tool in the DPA. They don’t have to nationalize industries to use it. They can use national procurement and logistics to get testing fully deployed so the states can sensibly get back to work.

Much more can be done. The Fed Gov't can define a roadmap to recovery that addresses both health and economic risk. A template for this already exists, Scott Gottleib's proposal at AEI. If everyone were tested 2 x month and those with positive test results isolated, the workplace and retail would immediately become much safer. People could return to work, shopping and recreation. Even without advances in prevention or cure, the fear factor would decline.

An infrastructure for this would be needed, and the same Fed Gov't could take some small part of the $2T+ money being spent - say, $50B - and point it toward enabling this roadmap. At the same time it could take another measly $50B and fund research for prevention and treatment.

The importance of a roadmap is it's ability to get everyone to stop arguing and yelling at each other. Most everyone can see their role, and also what everyone else needs to do. The more comprehensive the roadmap, the more unifying it becomes, the easier to measure progress. It is a critical tool to help people deal with fear.

I think the DPA could be helpful, but only if we conclude industry cannot fulfill a critical component of a national strategy. Same for logistical support. I'm not sure that is needed.

 

[Dwhit]

Dwhit, when you are comparing the #80, does your mind equate the two diseases?
Flu season starts in Sept-Oct. Most medical personnel are req. to have flu shot in Oct. -> 80 deaths/6mo
First confirmed COVID death in OK: 3/18 -> 80 deaths/3wks

Overall, it appears that OK has a comparable fatality rate as NYC (this is very rough b/c a lot of factors): 80/1684 vs. 7067/159,937

NYC though, is completely overrrun from a medical perspective where they are allocating resources and deciding who gets a ventilator (read subreddit r/ medicine for first hand accounts). OK is a medical system that has ALOT of room still. Furthermore, in places where you have 1-20 patients, like most counties in OK, you won’t necessarily see a death until you reach a critical mass. If you look at those places or counties that do have a enough cases, you actually see CFR’s of >5% (look at gisanddata COVID map), which is concerning.

This implies that when the numbers do ramp up in OK, that the outcomes may be not as optimistic as you imply.

I was not trying to imply that COVID is not worse than the flu. I was trying to say that to date, the impact to Oklahoma deaths has been comparable to the flu.

I think in Covid hot spots, people are not going to be anywhere ready to go back to normal for a while, but in a place like Oklahoma it might be doable. This is assuming the experts here are correct when they tell us we are within a week or so of our peak.

Mainly, I think there are a lot of smart people on this website. So as I was trying to imagine how we would get back to normal and what that process might look like. And I didn't realize there was already a thread along those lines, which I am now reading.

 

[donheff]

Much more can be done. The Fed Gov't can define a roadmap to recovery that addresses both health and economic risk. A template for this already exists, Scott Gottleib's proposal at AEI. If everyone were tested 2 x month and those with positive test results isolated, the workplace and retail would immediately become much safer. People could return to work, shopping and recreation. Even without advances in prevention or cure, the fear factor would decline.

An infrastructure for this would be needed, and the same Fed Gov't could take some small part of the $2T+ money being spent - say, $50B - and point it toward enabling this roadmap. At the same time it could take another measly $50B and fund research for prevention and treatment.

The importance of a roadmap is it's ability to get everyone to stop arguing and yelling at each other. Most everyone can see their role, and also what everyone else needs to do. The more comprehensive the roadmap, the more unifying it becomes, the easier to measure progress. It is a critical tool to help people deal with fear.

I think the DPA could be helpful, but only if we conclude industry cannot fulfill a critical component of a national strategy. Same for logistical support. I'm not sure that is needed.

+1. It’s all about leadership. I only emphasize DPA because if anyone asserts the Fed needs authority to use it’s resources to do this, the DPA is already there.

 

[Winemaker]

Okay, then use the DPA to get everyone tested. It would just be like a FICO score, good for that moment only. Then Covid-19 comes back in two weeks or three, are we going to shut down again? Seasonal coronavirus' cause the common cold. Okay, we test for antibodies, how long do they hang around? Was the antibodies only good for two weeks? We don't have enough data for anything. Do we test those who have underlying conditions, such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease, take ACE inhibitors, smoke, eat bacon? That would be a HIPAA nightmare and completely annihilate the supposed sole purpose of having confidentiality. Give those who have been tested a special passport card to travel? To go to work? Go to a McDonalds? A beach? Ludicrous!
We have shots that immunize against tetanus, but you have to get a booster every 5-6 years. I don't see any benefit in widespread testing unless you are compromised, in a nursing home or are experiencing symptoms. And then you're told to stay at home. Good grief!

 

[donheff]

Winemaker- Your suggestion sounds like a bit of a strawman. Who is suggesting universal testing? The serious proposals involve broader testing of the symptomatic followed by quarantine of positives, contact testing, etc. that takes resources that states don’t have. As MB suggests, 50B might help get the testing ramped up and help states and cities hire people to do the contact testing as other countries are doing. I was somewhat relieved to hear Dr Birx talking along these lines today. They are now talking about a concerted effort to map out a strategy. About time.

 

[MichaelB]

I agree the "I have immunity" card isn't a great idea.



I think testing everyone, once or twice a month, until we no longer see COVID as a major threat to our public health and health care infrastructure, is a good idea. Once per 14 days identifies most of the infected early in the cycle and keeps the reproduction ratio low. It lets us leave shelter and interact with others while keeping the risk of contagion low without waiting for a vaccine.

 

[Ready]

In China you have to load an app on your phone that tracks your location and assigns you a health code. A green code on your phone means you can travel freely. Yellow or red means you have to isolate yourself and wait until you get a green code. And every move you make is tracked by the police and the government.

This would never work in the US, but it shows what is possible when you have a government that does not care about privacy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/china-coronavirus-surveillance.html

 

[Ready]

Apple and Google are working on a contact tracing app to help track people who you may have come in contact with who are infected. Of course this will only work if everyone is willing to opt in to using the app, which is unlikely to happen.

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020...rtner-on-covid-19-contact-tracing-technology/

 

[FIREd_2015]

"...Preliminary results...in one of the regions worst hit by Germany's coronavirus epidemic..are somewhat reassuring...Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt for antibodies...Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent...Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do..."

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preli...infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

https://www.technologyreview.com/20...ow-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

 

[devans0]

I am writing from Iowa. Our infection rates are probably in the tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands at this moment. Our family and our daughter's family have isolated. We get groceries when we must, and do it in the safest way possible, gloves, masks, social distancing to an extreme, and rigorous washing and sanitation. We home school the grandkids, temporarily. Daughter and son-i-l work at home via computers. We are waiting for when it's safe.

When there is a safe effective and affordable cure, or when new virus death rays work to kill viruses, (don't laugh, they are being produced per real science), or an effective vaccine, or herd immunity, or personal immunity, we can breath easier.

Mortality or degrees of illness depend upon pre-existing health and how badly exposed individuals patients are. This can be the difference between months on a ventilator, or asymptomatic illness.

Existing tests have high false positives and higher false negatives. Multiple passes of testing become more accurate identifiers of who is sick. Antibodies can identify those who are immune. We only know the number of infected running loose by the number tested a couple of weeks later, and extrapolating exponential growth.

How do I become safe and keep my family safe? Simple, make my interactions and transactions where i might become infected, as sanitary and as few and as brief as possible. Employ protections that reduce viral loads to only a few percent. Maintainmbmlkyn and have a healthy lifestyle. These are under my control.

I dont have to save all of the world, but if WE work together, this virus can be beat. I cannot control tests, but have a lot that i can do to keep my family as safe as possible.

 

[badatmath]

C
The problem is many business have gone to open office setups. Wonderful rows of tables where you all get chummy. Then you go into your scrum room and stand shoulder to shoulder to have a standup meeting.

Yep I will be really pissed if I die before I reach age at which I can qualify for retiree benefits due to this mess. And you didn't even mention the elevator I get to ride up in. Even if I were ambitious enough to walk up 12 floors, I can't because they are locked from the lower level for security reasons. And I sit next to the breakroom so a ton of traffic passes by.

 

[njhowie]

I keep thinking the virus may take some of the strain off the public-sector pension system.

What, that more folks may die sooner?

Well, the decline in the markets this year will more than negate any benefit you believe might be gained in that regard. We'll soon be seeing the articles come out about how this has put the pension systems in an even bigger hole because they were taking outsized risks with their investments trying to lessen the amounts they were underfunded by. As taboo as it has historically been, we're likely going to see some come out and present plans to begin reducing benefits.

The pain from the fallout of this has not even been conceptualized by most folks, local and state governments. Today everyone is rightly focused on containment and eradication of the virus. In a month or two, as we attempt to begin to go back to normal, the reality will set in and it won't be pretty.

 

[GravitySucks]

I think it will be as much bottom up as possible. I'm planning on adding another person into my circle next week as DM will be going home. Week after that I might get take out. I'll probably take the pup to the canal trail for walks soon.
All fairly low risk, but the risks will be growing. Eventually it will reach a new normal. There's no way the country will be on hard lock down for the year a vaccine will take on fast track (of course I didn't think we'd be shut down this tight at all so what do I know.) I get my flu shots and believe in vaccines in general, but I'm not going to be first in line when a vaccine is available. I'll take may chances with the virus rather than a rushed vaccine.
Two working friends said they would go back tomorrow if they could. A third - who has lung issues - found out he will be heading back in two weeks. If they're going to be in an office / factory with others all day they are not going to put up with not being able to get a beer and burger after work. Not everyone is as concerned we seem to be.
On the other side Florida Gov. said he might open schools in 2 weeks. Dear Niece already said her kids won't be going back this year. Another bottom up decision.
I hope our Governor turns the decision to open to the Counties. There's a big difference between Queens County and Madison County.

 

[youbet]

To be fair, Governors sometime have common sense.
.

Not in Illinois. Most can't even avoid staying out of prison.

 

[travelover]

Not in Illinois. Most can't even avoid staying out of prison.

Think of it as a second career.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Existing tests have high false positives and higher false negatives. Multiple passes of testing become more accurate identifiers of who is sick. Antibodies can identify those who are immune. We only know the number of infected running loose by the number tested a couple of weeks later, and extrapolating exponential growth.

.

Source for this claim? I know there are issues with China provided test kits. However, I have seen nothing pointing to issues with centralized mass testing (e.g. Fisher Scientific). In terms of decentralized testing, e.g. the Abbott 5/15 minute (positive/negative) ID Now system it supposedly detects viral activity as little as 125 genome equivalents per milliliter. The sensitivity/specificity are not yet known (given the quick rush and thus use of lab samples), but the platform itself has a good reputation in the field for other tests.