COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[oldphd]

I find that very scary. It is a great motivator for this older guy to stay home, cuddle the gf, save my health and money and then go wild after I get vaccinated. And I do mean go wild, almost to the point of putting pineapple on pizza. Almost.

Go wild, sure, but pineapple on pizza? That's crazy talk! Do that and you should be committed!

Apologies to those who like pineapple pizza, but being old school there are some things that don't belong on pizza, like buffalo chicken, pineapple, etc.

 

[Chuckanut]

Go wild, sure, but pineapple on pizza? That's crazy talk! Do that and you should be committed!

Apologies to those who like pineapple pizza, but being old school there are some things that don't belong on pizza, like buffalo chicken, pineapple, etc.

Oh, we are in agreement on pizza. Notice I said 'almost'.

FWIW, this stay at home time has me working on making even better pizza with good ingredients. Sorry, Papas John and Murphy, Beware the Ides of March Little Caesars, I've knocked over the Dominoes, and there will be no more junky pizza eaten in my backyard Olive Garden.

 

[oldphd]

Oh, we are in agreement on pizza. Notice I said 'almost'.

FWIW, this stay at home time has me working on making even better pizza with good ingredients. Sorry, Papas John and Murphy, Beware the Ides of March Little Caesars, I've knocked over the Dominoes, and there will be no more junky pizza eaten in my backyard Olive Garden.

I did see the almost... certainly wasn't dinging you, just agreeing. After that post I recalled some veggie pizzas I've seen on menus with things like corn, broccoli, etc. No thanks...

Like you, I am planning to work on my pizza. With the weather turning nicer and firing up the grill more, I plan to go back and work on my pizza on the grill. Got the recipe at a cooking class a couple of years ago and have done it a few times. The crust is thin and cooks quick. It's half regular flour and half oo flour. I was out of the oo flour and couldn't find it locally after relocating late last year, but picked some up while traveling this winter before the whole shutdown.

Usually do one with red sauce, either sausage or pepperoni and some veggies, mushroom, olive, peppers are my go tos. Also do one with olive oil and red pepper, add some previously cooked shrimp and veggies. Or just red sauce and fresh mozzarella. You need to keep the ingredients on the low side since the cooking time is very short. Make a skinny piece from the dough, toss on the grill for a couple of minutes, then take off and flip over, adding ingredients before tossing back on for a few minutes. My tendency was to overcook the dough and get it crispy, I'm going to try to cut the time down so the dough is better.

Maybe later this week, have all the ingredients we need... next couple of dinners are already planned...

Hope you enjoy your pizza!

 

[RobLJ]

Today's WP had an interesting front-page article on health effects caused by COVID-19.
Most interesting (to me) was the increasing use of blood thinners to avoid problems caused by clotting, which appears to be one of the main killers of younger patients.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/10/coronavirus-attacks-body-symptoms/?arc404=true

 

[Dwhit]

Just reporting in that things are going pretty well as Oklahoma is opening back up. We are finishing Phase 1, with restaurants and similar opening up the last couple of weeks. We start Phase 2 this Friday with bars and similar opening up. So far, new cases continue to trend down. Keeping fingers crossed.

We were ranked very low for Corona impact (8th lowest state in cases per capita), so our model is not for everyone, but I am heartened by our results so far. Wishing the best for everyone out there!

 

[gwraigty]

I recently came back from my first non-grocery retail shopping experience at Dillard's. Today was the first day of reopening retail. It went well. They are operating on reduced hours. I was there within the first half hour of opening. I only went to the Origins skin care counter. The payment pad was on a table in front of the counter. I told the cashier what I needed and she rang me up. The closest we got to each other was when she handed me the bag. The rest of the transaction we didn't need to get within 6 ft. of each other.

There was a customer ahead of me. I stood well back, but I didn't notice any social distancing markers on the floor. When the customer was done with the touch pad, the cashier cleaned it with a wipe. During my transaction, another customer approached from the opposite way and stopped probably at least 8 ft. from me. The 3 of us talked among ourselves for a few minutes. The customer said that a lot of the retail stores in the mall were still closed. She needed to get something from Lane Bryant and they were closed. The cashier said that JCPenney was still closed.

It was more pleasant and more social distanced than any grocery shopping trip I've had. The experience may vary according to the department and time of day. I'd just suggest that you check the store websites first to make sure they're open and when, before heading out the door.

 

[harllee]

The mall near me was open over the weekend for the first time. The local newspaper said they had about 5% of the normal volume of people and most were wearing facemarks. I just don't think people in my area are ready to go out yet.

 

[statsman]

The mall near me was open over the weekend for the first time. The local newspaper said they had about 5% of the normal volume of people and most were wearing facemarks. I just don't think people in my area are ready to go out yet.

Ready to go out, or have the expendable money to go out to a mall?

 

[Midpack]

The mall near me was open over the weekend for the first time. The local newspaper said they had about 5% of the normal volume of people and most were wearing facemarks. I just don't think people in my area are ready to go out yet.

Wow, less than I might have guessed. But every merchant and customer has every right to do what they're comfortable with. Maybe many just didn't know, don't want to be first, conflict with Mothers Day, time will tell.

 

[Moemg]

I had to go to a have a blood test today so I passed Beall's which is our local department store . The parking lot was jammed . I saw two elderly people walking in no masks . If Florida does not spike then I believe the heat theory .

 

[gwraigty]

New Ohio openings announced today are:

May 21 - Campgrounds
May 22 - Horse racing w/o spectators
May 26 - BMVs, gyms, fitness centers, pools
May 31 - Day camps and daycare centers (max of 6 kids per room)

There's some concern that many parents will be shut out of daycare centers they used before the shut downs, because of the new capacity restrictions. They have no suggestions for those parents. They're going to be giving some money to the centers to offset the loss of revenue with smaller capacity (because they're not getting reduced rent in turn).

 

[Klubbie]

New Ohio openings announced today are:

May 21 - Campgrounds
May 22 - Horse racing w/o spectators
May 26 - BMVs, gyms, fitness centers, pools
May 31 - Day camps and daycare centers (max of 6 kids per room)

There's some concern that many parents will be shut out of daycare centers they used before the shut downs, because of the new capacity restrictions. They have no suggestions for those parents. They're going to be giving some money to the centers to offset the loss of revenue with smaller capacity (because they're not getting reduced rent in turn).

The daycare piece is going to be a problem for many. We use a daycare around the corner from our house and my 3 year old is in a room that had 12 to 15 kids in it with appropriate ratios prior to covid.

That room will now only allow 6 kids. I have no idea if we could get a spot or not. In reality we could probably get by as my company is being flexible with WFH (and based on their guidelines to return to office I'd rather stay at home) and my wife is off a few days a week from her schedule.

But this is a double whammy. Families who need this childcare to work and provide for their families may not be able to send their kids to daycare. And daycares themselves will likely have to raise prices or go under to make up for the huge cuts in families that have been paying tuition.

 

[Midpack]

But this is a double whammy. Families who need this childcare to work and provide for their families may not be able to send their kids to daycare. And daycares themselves will likely have to raise prices or go under to make up for the huge cuts in families that have been paying tuition.

Not something I had thought about until several others brought it up - a definite sticking point. It's usually easier to practice distancing at work than it is in a childcare facility - but one depends on the other for many. Some dual income homes may be forced to go SAHM or SAHD for quite awhile at least. I am sure every parent is hoping schools will open next Fall.

 

[donheff]

I would like to understand what makes health officials think reducing the number of toddlers in a room by half will make a difference. Do they think it’s feasible to keep the rug rats six feet apart? Iceland has beaten the pandemic back and kept K thru 6th in school. They assert that transmission between the kids and from kids to adults is de minimus. We should be researching that.

 

[Midpack]

I would like to understand what makes health officials think reducing the number of toddlers in a room by half will make a difference. Do they think it’s feasible to keep the rug rats six feet apart? Iceland has beaten the pandemic back and kept K thru 6th in school. They assert that transmission between the kids and from kids to adults is de minimus. We should be researching that.

There are at least 50 coronavirus experiments going on in the US as we speak, and compliance varies all over the map. Like it or not, we'll know more and more as the weeks and months pass.

 

[Klubbie]

Not something I had thought about until several others brought it up - a definite sticking point. It's usually easier to practice distancing at work than it is in a childcare facility - but one depends on the other for many. Some dual income homes may be forced to go SAHM or SAHD for quite awhile at least. I am sure every parent is hoping schools will open next Fall.

My wife and I will be having this conversation tonight. She is a nurse and has been continuing to go to work through the pandemic. I have been WFH. My daughter has been very good through it all. She is 3 so old enough to entertain herself to some degree, but also young enough that she is in my hair fairly consistently throughout the day.

I think I am going to propose to my wife we tell the daycare we are essential workers (they sent out a survey asking as such) and would at least like to get her back two days a week to help with her development and social interaction. We will see how it plays out.

I also agree with donheff's post as well. These kids are all over each other and in each others business. Especially under the age of 5. I really dont see how cutting the kids in my daughter's classroom by 60% will help with anything. And when you consider they are likely to prioritize essential workers such as my wife who works in healthcare, it is more likely our daughter would catch COVID-19 from my wife (since she works in a hospital,even though she isn't treating covid patients) and transmit to someone in the daycare than another child of a non-essential worker who has been sheltering in place.

It's all a mess, and in my opinion the consequences and impacts not been thought through at all.

 

[brewer12345]

New Ohio openings announced today are:

May 21 - Campgrounds
May 22 - Horse racing w/o spectators
May 26 - BMVs, gyms, fitness centers, pools
May 31 - Day camps and daycare centers (max of 6 kids per room)

There's some concern that many parents will be shut out of daycare centers they used before the shut downs, because of the new capacity restrictions. They have no suggestions for those parents. They're going to be giving some money to the centers to offset the loss of revenue with smaller capacity (because they're not getting reduced rent in turn).

Wow. So second wave in full swing by June 30?

 

[Leo1277]

I would like to understand what makes health officials think reducing the number of toddlers in a room by half will make a difference. Do they think it’s feasible to keep the rug rats six feet apart? Iceland has beaten the pandemic back and kept K thru 6th in school. They assert that transmission between the kids and from kids to adults is de minimus. We should be researching that.

There is actually some sense to it. As you say, they cannot be kept apart, so if one of them has it, by the time the day is over, all kids in the room will have it, considering how easily it transmits. But by reducing the number of kids to half, the probability that there is an infected kid in the room in the morning drops to half; and if there is one, then the number of infected kids in the evening also drops to half. So the situation is 1/4 as bad as with a full room.

Having said this, this setting is still much worse than many others where some actual distancing is possible, the badness is just 1/4 of "real bad", whatever that comes out to be in practice. I think this and all the other rules being cooked up on the fly are exercises in experimental epidemiology, where the kids and their parents are the guinea pigs.

 

[Leo1277]

One thing I am always worrying about in these re-opening discussions is that we mostly look at the deaths as a measure for the price to pay, and assume that those 97-99% that get infected but don't die are going to be ok. But there is more and more evidence that there are residual effects in survivors. It's early in the game to know hard statistical data, but evidence is accumulating that it isn't a walk in the park:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lth-effects-can-last-long-after-virus-is-gone

The prospect led Nicholas Hart, the British physician who treated Prime Minister Boris Johnson, to call the virus “this generation’s polio” -- a disease that could leave many marked by its scars and reshape global health care.
...
Tracking and figuring out how Covid-19 affects the body even after recovery could inform governments budgeting for social safety nets, doctors that see patients long term, and businesses as they set policies such as sick and disability leave. These issues could be even more crucial as public health officials say there’s a possibility the virus may become a seasonal affliction.

 

[brewer12345]

One thing I am always worrying about in these re-opening discussions is that we mostly look at the deaths as a measure for the price to pay, and assume that those 97-99% that get infected but don't die are going to be ok. But there is more and more evidence that there are residual effects in survivors. It's early in the game to know hard statistical data, but evidence is accumulating that it isn't a walk in the park:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lth-effects-can-last-long-after-virus-is-gone

Thank you. For me personally, I am a lot more worried about the morbidity than the mortality.

 

[Leo1277]

Another thing I found that is relevant for re-opening strategies - is the "6 foot rule" really the way to assess social distancing? There are now studies that show that just from speaking, the air in an enclosed room will have a cloud of virus laden particles over potentially much larger distances and for extended times: https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...293ba2-9557-11ea-82b4-c8db161ff6e5_story.html

Experiment shows human speech generates droplets that linger in the air for more than eight minutes

It references a paper that was just published, and also gives various examples, including the super spreading in a Chinese restaurant and a South Korean call center.

So when you go to a restaurant, even at 25% capacity, you better not talk to DW/DH sharing your table, lest you are willing to expose the other guests to the virus you may be carrying, and hope that the other guests won't be talking either. Experimental Epidemiology.

 

[Rustic23]

So, let’s cut it to 5 or say 2, and we reduce the risk even further. As said, kids don’t social distance, either accept the risk or don’t. Limiting the number seems like a false news of security.

 

[Aerides]

... It's early in the game to know hard statistical data, but evidence is accumulating that it isn't a walk in the park:

And even if residual effects aren't common, just actually getting sick sounds dreadful and miserable. Sounds like your worst ever flu running for 2-3 weeks straight. I've read enough stories of folks with "mild to moderate" illness to know it's not something to take lightly.

 

[Nemo2]

Thank you. For me personally, I am a lot more worried about the morbidity than the mortality.

https://www.global-sepsis-alliance....irus-disease-and-sepsis-cvd-novel-coronavirus

Now that more scientific data are available on COVID-19, the Global Sepsis Alliance can more definitively state that COVID-19 does indeed cause sepsis. Sepsis is “a life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection.” In the case of COVID-19, the effects on the respiratory system are well-known, with most people requiring hospital admission developing pneumonia of varying severity; however, virtually all other organ systems can be affected.

 

[mpeirce]

I am sure every parent is hoping schools will open next Fall.

There seems to be an anti-kid undercurrent in a lot of posts here.

A counterpoint: One of my sisters has decided to become a full time stay home mom now. She likes having her kids at home. They are restructuring things to make this happen. She thinks the kids are learning more with her focusing on supervising their education too.