Deep vs. Shallow Risk: ER'd too soon

kevink

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Perhaps reading William Bernstein's most recent book, "Rational Expectations," while watching the stock market whipsaw and crater is not the best way to spend the holiday season but I haven't been able to put the book down.

Without boring folks with too many details I'll just say that I left the corporate world prematurely and during a time when the few books available on ER had titles like "how to retire and live well on less than a million dollars." If I had it to do over I'd have stuck it out as a corporate drone for another decade, but I don't.

DW and I (she's 55, I'm 62) can subsist on 4% of our nest egg but not the 3% SWR Bernstein recommends. Said nest egg is 55% short-duration Treasuries and 45% globally-diversified equities (slice-and-dice a la Merriman's Ultimate Buy & Hold).

I don't see any way given our relative youth and current returns from TIPs or inflation-adjusted annuities to covert assets to a LMP but am acutely aware that if the current volatility morphs into a 2008-style 50%+ multiyear cratering of equities our withdrawal rate will look quite toxic.

Bernstein himself says that the best LMP a retiree can have is delaying SS to age 70 but I must confess I've been tempted to pull the trigger now that I could claim early SS ($1650 a month now vs. $2190 at FRA of 66).

Part-time work is unlikely given our skill sets and how long we've already been out of the work force but I will look into it. I realize most who post here have done a far better job of planning but would welcome any suggestions.
 
First, I want to say I very much appreciate you posting this thread. We don't often hear from those who confess they might have ER'd too early. Most just leave the forums, and/or are drowned out by the more-common response of "heck I waited too long!"

So some thoughts:

What does your cash position look like? It seems your primary concern is riding out a down-market/recession. One thing I always want to do is maintain a cash (cd, etc.) cushion of 3 years of expenses to avoid having to sell at the worst times. Put my head in the sand and ride it out, re-balance on the other side, that sort of thing.

Don't be too quick to dismiss even PT work - especially if you live in even a moderate economic area. Heck, whole foods pays $15 an hour, and in a lot of markets, positions are sitting vacant. Perhaps signing on through a temp agency with your basic skills might help.

And on the SS front, when both parties of a married couple are healthy, it might work out to close to even if one starts on the early side and the other waits till FRA. Nothing wrong with that if it means you can avoid cracking into the egg too far. (you'll no doubt get a zillion answers on the best way to do SS, but you've been here long enough you know it's a "popular" topic here).

As far as your AA it seems a bit atypical for your position, but I'll let others smarter than me handle that topic.
 
You might benefit from putting down the books for a bit and taking some deep breaths. There are many levers you might be able to use, so take time to assess/reassess things. Not easy to do during these crazy market headlines, but do-able.
 
You might benefit from putting down the books for a bit and taking some deep breaths. There are many levers you might be able to use, so take time to assess/reassess things. Not easy to do during these crazy market headlines, but do-able.

^ What he said.

Remember that Bernstein is a huge pessimist and was scarred by how his clients reacted during the Great Recession, shooting themselves in the foot. This thread sheds some light on his ultraconservative attitude: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/the-worst-retirement-investing-mistake-63236.html
 
It's hard to give any meaningful suggestions without knowing a lot more details. Are there any specific questions you have for the group?
 
So here's my response if I was talking to my kids or someone I deeply cared about. Just because you made one decision doesn't mean you can't make a different one. Right out of the hopper if you're concerned about not having enough money then go make some. With the economy as strong as it is you both can work PT, FT or a combo of the two. Who cares if you haven't worked for awhile. That would give you income both to live on and for additional SS. Plus, there are benefits that could lower your nut.

You control your future. I'm not going to put 3,5 or 7 years in cash but I'm now positioned in AA to ride the storm better in conjunction with a slightly larger cash position. I can tell you one thing....if I need to go back to work I will.
 
What is LMP? The most common meaning of it doesn't seem to apply here....

Anyway, I second that more info is needed.

Will your wife get SS on her own record. If so, how much will it be. As far as delaying SS to 70, IMO, that mostly works for people who don't need it. That is, to delay SS to 70 you have to either be covering expenses through still working or you have to have a large enough portfolio that you can withdraw from it to cover expenses without eating up your portfolio. The reality is that most people who are retired at 62 can't easily afford to wait until 70 unless they have a large portfolio or a pension or some other source of income.

That said, I am not all that sure that your situation is that dire. It sounds like you and DW can take a 4% withdrawal from your portfolio and that it covers your expense without considering SS. Most people, even retired people, can't do that.

If you took SS now, you could take a lower withdrawal rate. (Yes, I know the advantages of waiting until 70 but you may not be able to afford doing that. Even if you could, plenty of people decide to take SS earlier).

Either you or DW or both you might be able to work for awhile. Even a part-time job for each of you might add to your income and reduce your withdrawals. Saying part-time work is unlikely is because you are likely thinking of work of the type or stature that you had when working full-time. When I worked full-time I made a nice salary. Back then, I would have thought a job paying $15 an hour was a job paying a pittance. But, now that our expenses are much longer and I am away from that rarefied world, I wouldn't think that. If I could work 20 hours a week at $15 an hour that would (before taxes) add about $15k income. At our current spending level, that is a lot of money.

I don't know about where you live, but there are a lot of job openings. As mentioned temp work might also be attractive just so you weren't tied down long term.
 
So by LMP I am assuming you are speaking of Berstein and Liability Matching Portfolio where one utilizes TIPS to match the needed expenses and as such is protected from the need for equities. So you are not able to convert to a LMP but I take it you feel if you were to start SS then it would be possible. The bigger issue is since your spouse is so much younger than you she would be in far better stead to have you wait until 70 to take your SS.

Have you considered converting to eight years of fixed income via TIPS to tide you till age 70 and the effect this would have on your portfolio? By then your wife will be 63 and could take SS and would be eligible at a minimum for $812.50 which would provide nearly $4,000 or more depending on the social security your wife may have earned on her own. With the tax advantages of the social security this might be quite a better solution than early SS. If there is a significant stock market correction similar to the 2008 experience you would be in far better stead in this scenario than in trying to balance the portfolio and a lesser SS payout, as well as significantly higher assurance for your wife.
 
Part-time work is unlikely given our skill sets and how long we've already been out of the work force but I will look into it. I realize most who post here have done a far better job of planning but would welcome any suggestions.


My suggestions would be to analyze and optimize every expense if you have not already done so and check out ways to make extra money online like Reddit beer money forum. There's one guy on there who posts regularly who lives off just odds and ends online work, like getting paid to watch videos apps and odd online jobs via MTurk. Also check into credit card hacks, bank bonuses and store reward programs. There's also lots of job sites for things like mystery shopping, dog walking and errands. Some of the Reddit posters who do dog walking and dog sitting make pretty decent incomes.
 
What about claiming SS early and picking up part time work? You could possibly lower your withdrawal rate significantly
 
Perhaps reading William Bernstein's most recent book, "Rational Expectations," while watching the stock market whipsaw and crater is not the best way to spend the holiday season but I haven't been able to put the book down.

Without boring folks with too many details I'll just say that I left the corporate world prematurely and during a time when the few books available on ER had titles like "how to retire and live well on less than a million dollars." If I had it to do over I'd have stuck it out as a corporate drone for another decade, but I don't.

DW and I (she's 55, I'm 62) can subsist on 4% of our nest egg but not the 3% SWR Bernstein recommends. Said nest egg is 55% short-duration Treasuries and 45% globally-diversified equities (slice-and-dice a la Merriman's Ultimate Buy & Hold).

I don't see any way given our relative youth and current returns from TIPs or inflation-adjusted annuities to covert assets to a LMP but am acutely aware that if the current volatility morphs into a 2008-style 50%+ multiyear cratering of equities our withdrawal rate will look quite toxic.

Bernstein himself says that the best LMP a retiree can have is delaying SS to age 70 but I must confess I've been tempted to pull the trigger now that I could claim early SS ($1650 a month now vs. $2190 at FRA of 66).

Part-time work is unlikely given our skill sets and how long we've already been out of the work force but I will look into it. I realize most who post here have done a far better job of planning but would welcome any suggestions.

My best advice to you is to stop reading Bernstein... he used to give solid advice but as REWahoo mentioned, in 2008/2009 when he saw that his clients didn't have the conviction to stay the course with a balanced portfolio.... Bernstein went off the deep end and today is way too conservative in his recommendations.

If you can subsist on 4% then you are ok, especially if the 4% excludes any social security.

Also, forget LMP... it doesn't really work unless you are overfunded.

I also wouldn't agree your assertion that a 4% WR would be toxic in a 2008/2009 scenario. The link below shows that actual performance of three portfolios starting at $1,000,000 in Jan 2008 with monthly withdrawals of $3,333 (4% WR) with withdrawals adjusted annually for inflation through Nov 2018. Portfolio #1 is a plain vanilla 60/40 portfolio. Portfolio #2 is called the Bill Bernstein No Brainer... I don't know much about it but I suspect that it is what Bernstein would have recommended before he went over to the wacky side. It is 25% each of total bond, S&P 500 index, small cap index and total international stock. Portfolio #3 is similar to your portfolio as you described it and I suppose aligns with Bill's latest brainstorm in ultra-conservative investing.

Note that portfolios #1 and #2 both recovered nicely from 2008/2009, even after withdrawals and today are higher than they started. Portfolio#3 is a fail... it cratered, allbeit less than portfolios #1 and #2, but it then never recovered... IMO because it is too conservatively invested.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...location5_3=20&symbol6=VFISX&allocation6_3=55

About the only thing that I would agree with Bernstein on is that deferring SS until 70 is a great backasswards way to buy an inflation adjusted life annuity. Let's say your FRA is 66 and your PIA is $1,000/month. Your age 62 benefit would be $750/month and your age 70 benefit would be $1,320/month. From age 62-70 you would forgo $96k of benefits but beginning at 70 you would get $6,940/year more... with COLA adjustments for life (and joint life if you are married)... that is a 7.1% payout rate for a COLAed annuity benefit.... the payout rate for a fixed benefit life annuity at age 70 is only 7.8% per immediateannuities.com

One question... have you run your numbers through FIRECalc?
 

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What about claiming SS early and picking up part time work? You could possibly lower your withdrawal rate significantly

Taking SS while working before FRA can backfire. Making too much reduces your SS income.
 
Have you run a FIRECalc model of your situation, especially including SS? Because you have a fairly substantial SS benefit your withdrawal rate from your portfolio will naturally decrease, perhaps substantially, when SS starts.

So while you are drawing 4% now, you are likely to drop below 3% after SS. You may be in better shape than you think.
 
Unless you are metaphorically "eating cat food", I would go at the expense side of the question very hard. For every dollar you cut in expense you lower the required nest egg by $25-33.

We often hear about loss aversion in terms of making rational investment decisions. I think it also applies to lifestyle.

We become used to a certain standard of living and are loathe to give up some aspect of it even when losing it wouldn't really harm us that much. That could be due to comfort (I really like driving my audi) or ego (if I stopped doing such-and-such people would know I'm in trouble).

Go through the budget, find some things you don't really need, and kill 'em.

My $0.02. Good luck.
 
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Have you run a FIRECalc model of your situation, especially including SS? Because you have a fairly substantial SS benefit your withdrawal rate from your portfolio will naturally decrease, perhaps substantially, when SS starts.

So while you are drawing 4% now, you are likely to drop below 3% after SS. You may be in better shape than you think.

+1

....If you can subsist on 4% then you are ok, especially if the 4% excludes any social security.

....One question... have you run your numbers through FIRECalc?
 
My best advice to you is to stop reading Bernstein... he used to give solid advice but as REWahoo mentioned, in 2008/2009 when he saw that his clients didn't have the conviction to stay the course with a balanced portfolio.... Bernstein went off the deep end and today is way too conservative in his recommendations.

If you can subsist on 4% then you are ok, especially if the 4% excludes any social security.

Also, forget LMP... it doesn't really work unless you are overfunded.

I also wouldn't agree your assertion that a 4% WR would be toxic in a 2008/2009 scenario. The link below shows that actual performance of three portfolios starting at $1,000,000 in Jan 2008 with monthly withdrawals of $3,333 (4% WR) with withdrawals adjusted annually for inflation through Nov 2018. Portfolio #1 is a plain vanilla 60/40 portfolio. Portfolio #2 is called the Bill Bernstein No Brainer... I don't know much about it but I suspect that it is what Bernstein would have recommended before he went over to the wacky side. It is 25% each of total bond, S&P 500 index, small cap index and total international stock. Portfolio #3 is similar to your portfolio as you described it and I suppose aligns with Bill's latest brainstorm in ultra-conservative investing.

Note that portfolios #1 and #2 both recovered nicely from 2008/2009, even after withdrawals and today are higher than they started. Portfolio#3 is a fail... it cratered, allbeit less than portfolios #1 and #2, but it then never recovered... IMO because it is too conservatively invested.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...location5_3=20&symbol6=VFISX&allocation6_3=55

About the only thing that I would agree with Bernstein on is that deferring SS until 70 is a great backasswards way to buy an inflation adjusted life annuity. Let's say your FRA is 66 and your PIA is $1,000/month. Your age 62 benefit would be $750/month and your age 70 benefit would be $1,320/month. From age 62-70 you would forgo $96k of benefits but beginning at 70 you would get $6,940/year more... with COLA adjustments for life (and joint life if you are married)... that is a 7.1% payout rate for a COLAed annuity benefit.... the payout rate for a fixed benefit life annuity at age 70 is only 7.8% per immediateannuities.com

One question... have you run your numbers through FIRECalc?

Excellent example, with relevant data!

It goes to show, people get so concerned about being risk-averse (actually 'volatility-averse'), they end up taking on more portfolio risk, because they go too conservative.

-ERD50
 
Thanks everyone for the many helpful suggestions and wise perspective - especially on Dr. Bernstein's work! Even though I'm an old hand at reading about investing some of his math skills and ideas are beyond my pay grade and given his legendary status in communities like Bogleheads that I respect I am definitely guilty of taking what he says as gospel when it may well not be.

I really appreciate the encouragement to look harder at part-time work and will do so!

Given that 55% of our portfolio is in Treasury bills and notes between 6 and 12 months we have plenty of cash to ride things out (I'd normally be mostly in IT Treasuries but decided quite awhile ago to keep maturities ultra-short until the Fed takes a breather).

Aside from the extremely conservative bond allocation our portfolio is pretty close to (and inspired by) Bob Clyatt's RIP Portfolio, which I got into "back in the day" when his still-useful book was one of the few evidence-based tools for putting together portfolios well-suited for lengthy retirements. I've mentioned Michael McClung's "Living Off Your Money" in other posts and while it's super-dense reading I'm finding it more useful for thinking about and planning for withdrawals and looking afresh at LMP/Guaranteed Income strategies than any of the (many) other books I've read on the subject.

In case of interest, Tyler over at Portfolio Charts (speaking of amazing resources) includes the Merriman Ultimate in his list of standard (i.e. un-customized) portfolios and that's basically what I'm doing except with slightly reduced equity allocation. As with all of his analysis he shows real-world drawdowns so there is a lot more useful "how it would feel to live with this" info than you get from FIRECalc:

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/merriman-ultimate/

Anyway, I'm going to follow several of the suggestions here: look really hard at PT work, put down the Bernstein books and other doom-and-gloom stuff, track expenses better. I guess the good news is having lived through the 08 crash I know what I did in a true market crisis and between Bernstein and the wise advice you've offered here I'm far more likely to stay the course and ride out the current volatility.

In case my experience is of any benefit to others (and as long as I'm fessing-up to mistakes) I'll say that at that time we were 100% invested in Clyatt's RIP portfolio (40% sliced-and-diced equities, 40% IT bonds, 20% "other" [commodities, private equity, etc]. Extensive back-testing showed a worst-case loss of around 9% for this allocation but the actual paper-loss at the market trough was ~23% and while the best thing to have done would have been to just hold steady we ended up converting most of our portfolio to Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio (which worked fine for a few years - until it didn't). So yeah, I did much the same as many of Bernstein's clients (even though we didn't sell at the market bottom) and am yet another example of his statement that actual risk tolerance is usually far less than one thinks. Talking about this seems particularly appropriate today when the New York Times has a lead article talking about how all asset classes are cratering together at the moment. "Uncorrelated" assets work great until they all correlate in a market panic, and this time even long treasuries and/or gold (which saved the PP in '08) aren't going to help.

Thanks again to everyone above for taking the time to share thoughts and advice. I have learned so much from this forum over the years and continue to do so. It is a great privilege to be part of this online community.
 
....In case of interest, Tyler over at Portfolio Charts (speaking of amazing resources) includes the Merriman Ultimate in his list of standard (i.e. un-customized) portfolios and that's basically what I'm doing except with slightly reduced equity allocation. As with all of his analysis he shows real-world drawdowns so there is a lot more useful "how it would feel to live with this" info than you get from FIRECalc:

https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/merriman-ultimate/....

So if you replace Portfolio 3 in the Portfolio Visualizer link with this Merriman Ultimate portfolio, twealed with a slightly reduced equity allocation to reflect your tilt on the Merriman Ultimate portfolio, what do the results look like from Jan 2008 to Nov 2018?
 
... current returns from TIPs ...
When you say "current returns" you are considering the inflation component, right? For example, at the current trailing 12 mo. inflation rate of 2.2% and maybe 50 bps of TIPS interest payments, you're at 2.7%. IMO that's not too shabby considering the 100% inflation protection.

(Schwab is showing me the 10 year T-note at 2.9% this morning. 10 year TIPs are showing at 1.1% YTM.)

IMO TIPS are a hugely unappreciated investment for individuals, especially in tax-sheltered accounts.
 
OldShooter, is that 1.1% including the inflation component? or is it inflation plus 1.1%?
 
OldShooter, is that 1.1% including the inflation component? or is it inflation plus 1.1%?
Every time I have seen TIPS yields quoted it is the same YTM calculation as conventional bonds or on new issues at par it is the coupon rate. So it does not include the inflation component. That is why TIPS yields look so paltry.

For example, we hold the 2s of 2026, so 2% coupon. Current yield on the Schwab site is shown as 1.883, reflecting I guess the bidder's profit. YTM is listed at 1.088%.

Another important thing that may not be obvious to some people is that the coupon rate is paid on the (inflation adjusted) current value of the bond, not on its original face value. The YTM cannot reflect this because no one knows what inflation will be in the future. Said another way, YTM on a conventional bond is the rate paid on nominal dollars/the face value, where the actual yield on a TIPS is a rate paid on constant purchasing power. Not sure I said that clearly; sorry.
 
So broadly speaking... if I buy the 1.1% coupon issue and over the term that I hold the issue inflation is at the 2% Fed target then my IRR will be ~ 3.1%?

IRR3.10%
Cash flowFace amt
0-100.00100.00
11.10102.00
21.12104.04
31.14106.12
41.17108.24
51.19110.41
61.21112.62
71.24114.87
81.26117.17
91.29119.51
10123.21121.90
 
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OldShooter, is that 1.1% including the inflation component? or is it inflation plus 1.1%?
Let me try another way that is maybe not so clumsy.

In November of 2006 I bought $105,000 worth (face value) of (2s of 26) TIPS into one of our accounts and paid $102,420. I have no idea what the YTM was but it would have been pretty close to 2% as they were issued in January of that year/very fresh.

In July of this year, my interest payment (half year) was $1327.95, so 1.3% of my original purchase price, 1.26% of the original face value of the bonds. That extra 0.26% was paid because the 2% coupon rate was applied to the inflation-adjusted value of the bond, not the original face.
 
So broadly speaking... if I buy the 1.1% coupon issue and over the term that I hold the issue inflation is at the 2% Fed target then my IRR will be ~ 3.1%? ...
Yes, that sounds about right.

There is one little gotcha: The annual inflation increase in the TIPS value is taxable income in the year received, but you get no cash. So it's most convenient to hold the TIPS in a tax-sheltered account because that defers (IRA) or eliminates (Roth) the taxes.

And one little goodie: In the unlikely event that we get deflation, the TIPS value will not be reduced. You can never go backwards.
 
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