I'll take that chance. I'm sure there are a lot more examples of 5-15% fluctuations than 40% in a day; and if it's going down 40% it's not recovering overnight. AFAIK, there are exactly zero historical examples of this happening in the first half of the year. If it does, we're in for something real.
Bad stuff happens in the second half of the year. My Q3-Q4 limits are very tight right now - today they are less than 5% - and will probably start to trigger in the next couple of days/weeks. I'm far more likely to get out early than late; in fact, I would expect to be out completely in a couple of weeks if the current situation continues to deteriorate. I'll still have a nice profit for this bull run and sleep very well at night. If it keeps going up, I'll just keep my adjusting my targets upward.
I just don't see a lot of upside in the market between now and the end of the year, and I've been burned more times than not for being greedy. (My PM is definitely loving it tho!
) There are times when a 3% guaranteed return starts to look pretty good...