Dow over 28,000!

[NW-Bound]

OK, I will let you in on a little more.

In the spreadsheet that shows I could have almost another $2M if I had gone 100% on the S&P since 2011, I also looked at what I could have if I put it all in "psst... Wellesley". Would Wellesley beat me?

As it turned out, I did not trail Wellesley. Hurrah!

But, but, but Wellesley's stock AA of 40% is lower than mine, which runs 70% until recently. That means I still failed in terms of risk-adjusted returns. Why?

It was because I had very little bonds, but a lot of cash. The cash return is low, compared to that of bonds. In addition, about 1/3 of my stocks is in international including EM, and these just sucked royally in recent years. Counting just my domestic stocks, I did not do too badly, but it's the overall performance that counts, right?

I don't know yet what to do about the international stocks, but I have been trying to squeeze more returns out of my cash. Hence, the cash-covered put options that I have been selling for the last 2 years. That adds a few percents to my overall return.

 

[W2R]

And meanwhile, the December dividends and capital gains from Wellesley came through this morning and are sitting there in my Vanguard settlement account.

So, after pausing for a day (due to the drop in Wellesley share price associated with these distributions), once again the total of my portfolio plus bank accounts is the highest of my entire lifetime!

This is simply amazing to me. If this is a dream, don't wake me up quite yet.

 

[street]

I just admire the brilliance of some of you folks. The smarts of the financial world and how you have played the game with smarts! Lol

I wonder at times how I even have a dime with no real knowledge of the game but to just save every chance I could get/LBMM. Lol If I only would of known how to play better I can't imagine what I would have today! LOL

Some interesting very sharp/smart people here on this site.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ You have the gain of $1M in the 3.5 years since you retired.

What more do you need to know or do?

 

[Andre1969]

OK, I will let you in on a little more.

In the spreadsheet that shows I could have almost another $2M if I had gone 100% on the S&P since 2011, I also looked at what I could have if I put it all in "psst... Wellesley". Would Wellesley beat me?

Sometimes I'll play those "what if I had done so-and-so" games with myself. One I like to do, is this scenario. In 2005, I took out an HELOC on my old house. They gave me a $175K credit line. If I had sunk all of that into Apple stock at the time, today it would be worth about $7.77M today!


It was going for about $44.30 per share back then, and at one point did a 7:1 split, and currently going for around $281 per share.


Sometimes I kick myself mentally, but there is no way I would have been comfortable sinking that much money into a single stock back then...especially borrowed money. And, around the time of the Great Recession, when the stock went from around $200/sh to $100, I'm sure I would've been kicking myself, for other reasons.

 

[street]

^^^ You have the gain of $1M in the 3.5 years since you retired.

What more do you need to know or do?

Well, for not knowing anything or doing anything the results have been alarming! I guess the moral to my story is know nothing, do nothing and save. Lol

 

[RobbieB]

Yeah a whole half percent WR will do that I'm sure.

 

[unclemick]

Hmm - I do not believe there has been a year since 1966 when I couldn't find a portfolio that didn't blow the doors off what I owned at that particular time.

Then again the Saint's were my team for the Superbowl 1975 to 2005.



heh heh heh - on full auto portfolio wise since 2006. Re balancing by those non - emotional Vanguard computers is just ducky with me. Now picking the Superbowl and perhaps a few good stocks with mad money? A guy thing?

 

[NW-Bound]

Yeah a whole half percent WR will do that I'm sure.

Eh, you cannot spend it and still have it too.

My WR is low, but not 0.5%. If I had gone 100% into the S&P, would have gained significantly more than $1M in the past 3.5 years. As it stands, I fall short.

Oh well, it shows how hard it is to predict the stock market. I am still waiting for the market to revert. Any day now.

 

[RobbieB]

Well not as much anyway. I'm up from start of retirement spending like a drunken sailor!

 

[NW-Bound]

I am sure you enjoy your loot. I do not have anything I desire at the moment, so derive pleasure from seeing my number ratcheting up. It's something to do.

 

[street]

Yeah a whole half percent WR will do that I'm sure.

With all the people here with less then 1% WR I'm sure there are many here that have done better then me over 3.5 years.

I want to buy more land but not sure my better half will sign off on that.

 

[audreyh1]

Much the same story with us. Since I started investing 35 years ago, I've always been at about 90% equities, but we've pulled back considerably. The high valuations are a big reason, but also the recognition that less volatility is appropriate for us at this point. So, we are at about 50% equities now. DMT? Maybe, but for some time I've been a fan of using CAPE10 to adjust allocations.
A worry I have now is inflation down the road. . .

What ratio did you end up with?

 

[samclem]

What ratio did you end up with?

We're now at 56% equities,
21% cash/CDs,
20% bonds (very few corporates, mostly short-term Treasuries and some 3% real I-Bonds I bought years ago),
3% gold (ETF).

I'll be happy at 50-70% equities, I'll sell more stock to get down to 50%. My (preliminary) plan now is to toggle between 50% and 70% based on PE10 trigger points. I need to review some of the research on that. It's not a precise method and I'm prepared to be wrong for a long time.

 

[audreyh1]

We're now at 56% equities,
21% cash/CDs,
20% bonds (very few corporates, mostly short-term Treasuries and some 3% real I-Bonds I bought years ago),
3% gold (ETF).

I'll be happy at 50-70% equities, I'll sell more stock to get down to 50%. My (preliminary) plan now is to toggle between 50% and 70% based on PE10 trigger points. I need to review some of the research on that. It's not a precise method and I'm prepared to be wrong for a long time.

I'm toggling between 50% and 60% equities based on CAPE10. It's a narrow range so really not much allocation change. I've been "stuck" at 50% equities for a while as the PE10 persists close to 30 (above 25 is my top threshold).

This is just something I eyeballed from the CAPE10 graph since about 1994 to pick the 18-25 PE10 range. Good enough I figure. I don't know if it will make any difference in long-term performance at all. But it makes it far easier for me to stay invested.

 

[W2R]

And today, yet another all time record high for the total of my portfolio plus bank accounts. Absolutely mind boggling to me!

Just to give you an idea of why I am so dumbfounded, and won't shut up about it: the increase in that total since the beginning of 2019 is more than 11 times the amount I have spent from my portfolio during that same time span.

Well, that's just silly!! Obviously I've got to get busy and spend more, quickly!

 

[Chuckanut]

And today, yet another all time record high for the total of my portfolio plus bank accounts. Absolutely mind boggling to me!

Just to give you an idea of why I am so dumbfounded, and won't shut up about it: the increase in that total since the beginning of 2019 is more than 11 times the amount I have spent from my portfolio during that same time span.

Well, that's just silly!! Obviously I've got to get busy and spend more, quickly!

Well, being laid up for months recovering from knee replacement is a good excuse. Now, go forth and spend more, lest ye be labeled a cheapskate.

 

[W2R]

Well, being laid up for months recovering from knee replacement is a good excuse. Now, go forth and spend more, lest ye be labeled a cheapskate.

OK sounds like a good plan!

 

[Dtail]

And today, yet another all time record high for the total of my portfolio plus bank accounts. Absolutely mind boggling to me!

Just to give you an idea of why I am so dumbfounded, and won't shut up about it: the increase in that total since the beginning of 2019 is more than 11 times the amount I have spent from my portfolio during that same time span.

Well, that's just silly!! Obviously I've got to get busy and spend more, quickly!

Okay so will you get to a WR% of 1%

 

[street]

And today, yet another all time record high for the total of my portfolio plus bank accounts. Absolutely mind boggling to me!

Just to give you an idea of why I am so dumbfounded, and won't shut up about it: the increase in that total since the beginning of 2019 is more than 11 times the amount I have spent from my portfolio during that same time span.

Well, that's just silly!! Obviously I've got to get busy and spend more, quickly!

It is hard to beleive, isn't it? Lol

 

[W2R]

Okay so will you get to a WR% of 1%

Actually I have spent more this year than ever before, so with 12 days left in 2019, my spending for this year looks like it is zeroing in on around 1.21%. We'll see!

 

[W2R]

It is hard to beleive, isn't it? Lol

I know! Like many here, I struggled so hard to make ends meet when I was younger. So now, I keep thinking I must have lost my mind and that all this is just some sort of lunatic fantasy.

 

[tmm99]

I am getting a little scared myself... am I the only one?

 

[Vincenzo Corleone]

I know! Like many here, I struggled so hard to make ends meet when I was younger. So now, I keep thinking I must have lost my mind and that all this is just some sort of lunatic fantasy.

I hear you. I obsessively go over my numbers, convinced that I'm double-counting account(s), or that I did some other boneheaded thing. I keep saying to myself, "This can't be right".

 

[W2R]

I hear you. I obsessively go over my numbers, convinced that I'm double-counting account(s), or that I did some other boneheaded thing. I keep saying to myself, "This can't be right".

Yes! You and others here really do understand what is going through my mind.

I also imagine sometimes that later, perhaps in the year 2040, I will be telling people about how great things were for me back in 2019.