Early Retirement blamed for labor shortages
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GravitySucks
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Interesting from the St Louis FED a couple days ago:
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2021/december/excess-retirements-covid-19-pandemic
Over half of the laborforce loss can be attributed to excessive retirements. 2.5 million more retired than expected as of July 2021. Wonder how many more have or will come as employers ramp down work from home options?
Anecdotally, my sister at 67 retired late last year. Loved her job and the company loved her, but can't be a receptionist remotely and she is very afraid of the virus. She planned on working till 2023 at least.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2021/december/excess-retirements-covid-19-pandemic
Over half of the laborforce loss can be attributed to excessive retirements. 2.5 million more retired than expected as of July 2021. Wonder how many more have or will come as employers ramp down work from home options?
Anecdotally, my sister at 67 retired late last year. Loved her job and the company loved her, but can't be a receptionist remotely and she is very afraid of the virus. She planned on working till 2023 at least.
retire-early
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Jobs in my field appear to be still scarce where I live.
I hadn't planned on permanently retiring and would prefer to work a few contract jobs but it is what it is.
I hadn't planned on permanently retiring and would prefer to work a few contract jobs but it is what it is.
John Galt III
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My anecdotal input: I was a big rig truck driver before retiring. I got a letter 2 months ago from the state asking me to consider becoming a school bus driver or a snow plow driver. I declined. A 70 something guy I play cards with quit his job recently, but got another job, since his life is too boring without a job, he says. I am impressed by seeing young and forgivably incompetent workers at stores these days. I admire them for working.
JoeWras
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I think there will come a day where the "Old Folkx" will be admired again. Right now, there is so much toxic conversation out there (Covid = Boomer Remover, for example).
This will take time.
In the meantime, I am glad for the young people who are willing to work in service jobs. We stopped by a Chipoltle last night and they were so much out of sorts. They had signs up all over about their short staffing. I really felt bad for them. We managed to get a bowl burrito, but per their signs, some ingredients were missing.
This will take time.
In the meantime, I am glad for the young people who are willing to work in service jobs. We stopped by a Chipoltle last night and they were so much out of sorts. They had signs up all over about their short staffing. I really felt bad for them. We managed to get a bowl burrito, but per their signs, some ingredients were missing.
F.I.R.E User
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Is there a stat on how many people F.I.R.E in USA?
almost there
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Any excuse MSM can come up with is accepted as fact. Sad times indeed.
UI rate is at 7% in my state. Up from 4.2% just 2rs ago. But down from 9% in 2020.
We all know what it really is..........
UI rate is at 7% in my state. Up from 4.2% just 2rs ago. But down from 9% in 2020.
We all know what it really is..........
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Delawaredave5
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Maybe labor "shortage" is explained by boomer retirements - voluntary or involuntary.
They've always said "this was coming". Boomer births were 4 million/year, and dropped to half that in early 60s'
Median savings $200k. 4% plus SS plus own your house plus Covid craziness - maybe that works.....
https://dqydj.com/retirement-savings-by-age/
They've always said "this was coming". Boomer births were 4 million/year, and dropped to half that in early 60s'
Median savings $200k. 4% plus SS plus own your house plus Covid craziness - maybe that works.....
https://dqydj.com/retirement-savings-by-age/
almost there
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Many people have not re-entered the work force. Either from false media fear. Or they simply decided a job just isn't for them. 
Crime and theft is way up. Ordered a locking mail box yesterday.
Many have found other ways to make ends meet. And the jobs lost from Covid, have still not fully recovered. What a blunder that was.
And is still going strong in many states. Mine included.
Crime and theft is way up. Ordered a locking mail box yesterday.
Many have found other ways to make ends meet. And the jobs lost from Covid, have still not fully recovered. What a blunder that was.
And is still going strong in many states. Mine included.
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Delawaredave5
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Michigan estimates $10 billion in fradulent covid payments. 10 million population. If 5% of people made fraud claims - that's $15,000 per person.
For a $15/hour job - that's at least 6 months covered on the couch.
For a $15/hour job - that's at least 6 months covered on the couch.
Old Microbiologist
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It is an interesting phenomenon. Many countries encourage older workers to leave with early pensions thus opening up their vacant jobs to younger relatively underemployed workers. But the US and many western nations cook in raising the retirement age for full benefits for normal workers. This causes a crisis in job shortages filled by older workers waiting to get their social security (or whatever the country calls them) pensions. In many socialist countries, full retirement is as early as 50 depending on the particular hazards a job entails. The US as an example doesn't even factor in hazardous duties.
Another insipid problem is the treatment of the military. This year the Social Security pensions rose by 5.9% but the actual CPI-U is 6.8% *which is yet another problem and some might argue that 10.% is the real number). The military got a 2.9% cost of living increase which is actually a pay cut. The government also cut the added COLA for high cost areas which is yet another cut to military benefits. This additional COLA is for soldiers stationed in high-cost areas like Washington DC. Now they are stuck trying to live in areas they can't afford on their pay. If we were in a drawdown this makes sense but our foreign policy has ramped up the threats of war against multiple countries simultaneously while forcing soldiers out for failure to comply with the vaccine mandate (which as we see is yet another failure to understand pandemic controls as a vaccine is only a small part of effective control and should only be used for people at high risk of death). Yet at the same time, the military budget is the highest in history. So it is paradoxical to fund a military yet bash the soldiers which will result in many leaving the service. Again if the goal is to reduce the force (probably an excellent idea) then the budget should also be cut a should our foreign policy rhetoric.
Another insipid problem is the treatment of the military. This year the Social Security pensions rose by 5.9% but the actual CPI-U is 6.8% *which is yet another problem and some might argue that 10.% is the real number). The military got a 2.9% cost of living increase which is actually a pay cut. The government also cut the added COLA for high cost areas which is yet another cut to military benefits. This additional COLA is for soldiers stationed in high-cost areas like Washington DC. Now they are stuck trying to live in areas they can't afford on their pay. If we were in a drawdown this makes sense but our foreign policy has ramped up the threats of war against multiple countries simultaneously while forcing soldiers out for failure to comply with the vaccine mandate (which as we see is yet another failure to understand pandemic controls as a vaccine is only a small part of effective control and should only be used for people at high risk of death). Yet at the same time, the military budget is the highest in history. So it is paradoxical to fund a military yet bash the soldiers which will result in many leaving the service. Again if the goal is to reduce the force (probably an excellent idea) then the budget should also be cut a should our foreign policy rhetoric.
Sunset
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As an old geezer, I fully understand the reluctance to work a job where I can be exposed to Covid.
I do expect in a decade or more we will hear lots of stories of people that quit working, when they had planned to work longer, and now run short of money.
F.I.R.E User
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There were employees who were let go because they did not want to get vaccinated. Lot of employers won’t hire either unless you show proof.
Major Tom
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Well, they probably don't have much choice if they need money. However, I am very grateful to all the folk who work, and keep this economy going, so I can have a good life and have nice stuff.
For a few years after stopping work, I thought about getting another job, either full or part time. It never quite panned out though, and the longer I spent in retirement, the less appealing going back to work seemed. For me at least, a definite inertia set in after being away from the work force for a few years. At this point, I'd have to be fairly desperate for money, to be motivated to work again. I'm glad that this strong reluctance to work happened at the end of my career! It must be quite debilitating to be young and experience the same thing - which is another reason why, if I'd ever had kids, I hope I'd have done everything I could to train them to be independent adults.
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oiseux
Recycles dryer sheets
Both myself and my spouse have seen employee retirements in the last several months. I saw of wave of them at the end of the year, as people planned their tax efficient exits. This is anecdotal of course, but there is a significant set of job seekers out there, many looking looking to change fields. Unfortunately, they often don't have the qualifications.
Our surveys indicate people have really enjoyed working from home and some companies are making it a permanent shift. They are giving up offices leases and consolidating assets (and commercial real estate markets are shifting to logistics, retail and housing).
That is the case in one end of the spectrum. I think we've all seen the "help wanted" signs across retail, restaurant and services. (And the resulting pay increases and benefit changes, a good thing and the natural response) It is hard to reconcile with the fact that unemployment is still relatively high in my state and community college enrollment in my state is way down (lower skill workers are not seeking education).
On a few points brought up earlier in the thread... my megacorp has had few issues with setting up high tech SW/engineering positions in China, India, other parts of Asia and Europe. The productivity or work quality hasn't been problematic in most instances. China had been a problem with turnover. Interns are seen not as a gap filler but rather as a pipeline to bring new workers in. It is really a recruiting tool (and used worldwide). The decent all leave with an offer in hand for graduation.
Our surveys indicate people have really enjoyed working from home and some companies are making it a permanent shift. They are giving up offices leases and consolidating assets (and commercial real estate markets are shifting to logistics, retail and housing).
That is the case in one end of the spectrum. I think we've all seen the "help wanted" signs across retail, restaurant and services. (And the resulting pay increases and benefit changes, a good thing and the natural response) It is hard to reconcile with the fact that unemployment is still relatively high in my state and community college enrollment in my state is way down (lower skill workers are not seeking education).
On a few points brought up earlier in the thread... my megacorp has had few issues with setting up high tech SW/engineering positions in China, India, other parts of Asia and Europe. The productivity or work quality hasn't been problematic in most instances. China had been a problem with turnover. Interns are seen not as a gap filler but rather as a pipeline to bring new workers in. It is really a recruiting tool (and used worldwide). The decent all leave with an offer in hand for graduation.
