ER's flock to Seattle

[bld999]

We are staying in the affordable south (Texas) were $700+ K is three 2,000+ Sq/Ft houses. And, with oil down, it's getting more affordable.

As usual, house prices are so relative: 700k /6000sf = $117/ sf, which might
pay the hard construction costs only in Seattle. That leaves lot, entitlements, design and any other soft cost off the budget.
Of course if oil rises to 75 in the next couple years, houses in your area will likely follow proportionally.

There are plenty here who would find Seattle to be untenable, and it is testing the patience of those who have been here a while, as we remember how it "was".

There probably wasn't cheap accommodation in the Klondike during the rush, and the tech gold around here so far keeps rolling. When it stops, we may be buying homes below replacement cost, too [if we're still here]

Rumor has it that Oracle is looking for 3000+ personnel for it's new cloud initiative here; that's in addition to the vacuum that exists in software talent supply. SpaceX is apparently poaching Boeing and Microsoft for engineers for it's new venture a few miles south of here. These are all paying remarkable salaries.

That said, it's still possible to drive 1 - 1.5 hours east and be in the desert, or 2.5 hrs to the ocean. It ends up being your perception of what you have to give up for what you get in a living location. Good thing we don't all like the same circumstances...

 

[Fermion]

definitely more affordable than SEA/PDX but IMO much less livable

Sorry, I couldn't hear you for the moss that is growing on my head from this miserable wet winter in Seattle.

 

[Rosie]

If I was going to to retire to Washington,.... Wait! I AM GOING TO RETIRE TO WASHINGTON! To Orcas island.

Yep, that's the other area right near the top of our Nice Place to Visit list. We'll be there (well, specifically, Lopez Island) in June!

(Our absolute favorite place is the Victoria BC area on Vancouver Island. If it weren't such a PITA for a US retiree to relocate there, it's likely that's where we would have wound up. We looked into it, but, nah. We're not wealthy enough to be able to manage that.)

 

[OrcasIslandBound]

We can hardly wait. September 1st!

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

 

[W2R]

Sorry, I couldn't hear you for the moss that is growing on my head from this miserable wet winter in Seattle.

Maybe you can weave garments from the moss, sell them on street corners, and use the profits to help pay for the insanely high housing costs in Seattle. Just kidding around.

 

[Fermion]

We can hardly wait. September 1st!

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

I have a ton of pictures of Orcas Island and the other nearby islands from our last sailing trip. We stopped on Orcas and ate lunch (actually I think we spent the night at the marina there). Very pretty area.

 

[haha]

As usual, house prices are so relative: 700k /6000sf = $117/ sf, which might
pay the hard construction costs only in Seattle. That leaves lot, entitlements, design and any other soft cost off the budget.
Of course if oil rises to 75 in the next couple years, houses in your area will likely follow proportionally.

There are plenty here who would find Seattle to be untenable, and it is testing the patience of those who have been here a while, as we remember how it "was".

I first came here during the Vietnam War. The Smith Tower was the tallest building in town, and once the workday was over not many people around downtown other than military and whores. Boeing was King, and the big Boeing bust was starting. Soon came Gates and Redmond, and a fantastic transformation. I have 2 sons whose lives were basically formed by the wonderful climate of opportunity for talent and initiative that defined this area, and IMO still does. Seattle has been very good to my family. Big department stores were Frederick and Nelson, The Bon Marché, asd upstart Nordstrom. There were no grocery carts full of bedding shoved into sheltered spaces, and little panhandling at least that I remember.

Ha

 

[bld999]

I first came here during the Vietnam War. The Smith Tower was the tallest building in town, and once the workday was over not many people around downtown other than military and whores. Boeing was King, and the big Boeing bust was starting. Soon came Gates and Redmond, and a fantastic transformation. I have 2 sons whose lives were basically formed by the wonderful climate of opportunity for talent and initiative that defined this area, and IMO still does. Seattle has been very good to my family. Big department stores were Frederick and Nelson, The Bon Marché, asd upstart Nordstrom. There were no grocery carts full of bedding shoved into sheltered spaces, and little panhandling at least that I remember.

Ha

My wife and I met at UW 1970; as Garcia said, "what a long strange trip it's been" , and I agree on the opportunity and sheer force of ideas and innovation. No shortage of cool stuff going on.
San Francisco had always had the tenderloin, Vancouver the downtown eastside, etc. It's an irritation, but my engagement with that stuff is minimal, so it just becomes a human story to me.

 

[OrcasIslandBound]

I have a ton of pictures of Orcas Island and the other nearby islands from our last sailing trip. We stopped on Orcas and ate lunch (actually I think we spent the night at the marina there). Very pretty area.

Next time you are near orcas and need a "keel schwein" to help man the tiller for a while, give me a ring! After September 1st of course.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

 

[Chuckanut]

So the good people who would make great caregivers, repairmen, etc, all leave to find jobs where they are paid decently.

I had a good chuckle over that one. In my area there are many hi-tech, highly paid couples looking for daycare for their children but can't find what they want. These people who might gross 200,000+ a year in combined salary still want the child care workers to get at most $20 an hour. This in an area where a plain-Jane one bedroom apartment rents for $1500+ a month. Gosh, it is any wonder they can't find help?

 

[Gotadimple]

Sorry, I couldn't hear you for the moss that is growing on my head from this miserable wet winter in Seattle.

Head east Young Man! A few days in the Palm Springs of the Northwest (Yakima) and you'll be sufficiently dry.

 

[REWahoo]

This should reduce home values in the Seattle area:

​Anticipating the next mega-quake

The quake could displace a million people from northern California to southern Canada. Large parts of Seattle, Portland and Vancouver will crumble.

 

[supernova72]

Eh, I have a waterfront home (riverfront) about 2/3 acre with 150 feet of frontage 40 min from Seattle and I will sell my 4500sqft home for the first $300k that comes along.

Which river? I'm guessing south or east of Seattle. Homes in Tacoma are probably half the price.

 

[bld999]

This should reduce home values in the Seattle area:

​Anticipating the next mega-quake

We could all fit in Texas, though.

 

[REWahoo]

We could all fit in Texas, though.

Maybe - provided could you afford to buy an 1800 SF house in the suburbs of Muleshoe, which will then be priced at $1.5M.

 

[braumeister]

All kidding aside, I used to think Seattle was a pretty great city, but every time I've visited in the last ten years or so, I leave scratching my head and wondering how people can put up with that traffic.

 

[NW-Bound]

... wondering how people can put up with that traffic.

Because it is still better than LA?

About the quake, they said the tsunami may cause the sea to rise 50 ft, but Seattle is deep in the Puget Sound, and the complex coastline will slow down the surge. Wonder if those waterfront homes on low-bank lots would be safe. Good thing I cannot afford one right now. After the quake hits, I will be up there home shopping.

 

[bld999]

Because it is still better than LA?

About the quake, they said the tsunami may cause the sea to rise 50 ft, but Seattle is deep in the Puget Sound, and the complex coastline will slow down the surge. Wonder if those waterfront homes on low-bank lots would be safe. Good thing I cannot afford one right now. After the quake hits, I will be up there home shopping.

Don't wait too long Plate tectonics is just like honey badger, it could take forever for the next big one. All that traffic is one indication of how little people include earthquake fears into their near term calculations. Look at the San Andreas, and So Cal is loaded with population.

Plus, once the price of oil goes back up and Texas starts injecting produced water, Muleshoe will be shakin' too.

 

[aja8888]

As usual, house prices are so relative: 700k /6000sf = $117/ sf, which might
pay the hard construction costs only in Seattle. That leaves lot, entitlements, design and any other soft cost off the budget.
Of course if oil rises to 75 in the next couple years, houses in your area will likely follow proportionally.

Doubt it, A 2,000 square foot home in The Woodlands (where I mentioned the price) was at this level during the high oil prices. Even in the nicest areas here in our area, $200/sq. ft. is about tops. And The Woodlands is a highly desirable area in the Houston metroplex and is becoming the oil and gas center of the area. I believe the lower prices have a lot to do with the abundance of cheap labor (large low educated Hispanic population) and lots of competition within the building trades.

Granted, in some of the "old money" exclusive areas of Houston, prices command higher per sq. ft. values.

 

[unclemick]

50k for the same thing in a small town in Missouri

Amen. Just sold a three bedroom, one bathroom, 1000 sq ft, 1970, Leave it to Beaver house for 60k in a bedroom town North of Kansas City. Bought for 85k post Katrina.

heh heh heh - Ouch! Proceeds will go to remodel current 1922 Craftsman Bungalow. . Don't ya just love Mr Market er ? Location, location, location.

Seattle prices have always seemed high - except for the Boeing bust 1969-early 70's.

 

[haha]

Seattle prices have always seemed high - except for the Boeing bust 1969-early 70's.

This is my take also. I have spent most of the last 50 years here,
and the Boeing Bust is the only time I can remember when it truly seemed a no-brainer to buy rentals here. From time to time you might speculate on neighborhood improvement, but it took skill and some luck to win.

There was a similar aerospace recession in LA about the same time, but LA was much more diversified so it didn't seem so important to all SoCal business the way Boeing's trouble did up here.

Ha

 

[haha]

Granted, in some of the "old money" exclusive areas of Houston, prices command higher per sq. ft. values.

Aja, would that be like River Oaks?

Ha

 

[OrcasIslandBound]

Pacific NW, San Juan Islands, Seattle and a bunch of landmass is, yes, in the Cascadia subduction fault zone. The potentially large earthquake that can result here will make the SF earthquake seem like a walk in the park. Furthermore, the PNW gov didn't even realize this and actually change the building code until about 1995. So... Even with all this, I'm very glad to be planning on moving to Orcas Island in 5 1/2 months. We've kind of decided that this will be the price to pay for living there, even if it might kill us.

That being said, I think I would think twice about buying some sort of condo in Seattle built in the 70's. Multi-story + pre-earthquake code does not sound like a good recipe. Our house on Orcas, luckily, was built in 2001 and probably will withstand the big one, we hope. Many parts of Orcas are solid rock, a somewhat different substrate then certain areas around Seattle that will likely amplify an earthquake.

Also, I think the real fault line is a bit out to sea in the west, so hopefully the little bit of distance will slightly reduce the impact strength.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

One of the things I found interesting here in Nor Cal is that with many of the townhomes and condos we looked, the HOA did not seem to carry, or require homeowners to carry, earthquake insurance. I wasn't sure what would happen if we bought into a multi-housing unit of some type and had quake damage or had to do a complete rebuild. With our single family home, worst case we would probably just rebuild a smaller house on the same lot we have now. I'm not sure what would happen if we had a townhouse and we could rebuild but our attached neighbors did not have the savings to do so, which seems like a high probability scenario given average savings rates.

I used to work with geologists and they helped me pick a suburb to live in not directly over any of the known major faultlines, but a big enough quake or an unmapped faultline is still always a risk.

 

[Gotadimple]

One of the things I found interesting here in Nor Cal is that with many of the townhomes and condos we looked, the HOA did not seem to carry, or require homeowners to carry, earthquake insurance. I wasn't sure what would happen if we bought into a multi-housing unit of some type and had quake damage or had to do a complete rebuild. With our single family home, worst case we would probably just rebuild a smaller house on the same lot we have now. I'm not sure what would happen if we had a townhouse and we could rebuild but our attached neighbors did not have the savings to do so, which seems like a high probability scenario given average savings rates.

With a condo, EQ insurance held by the unit owner only protects the unit owner. The association owns the buildings, the unit-owner owns from the interior walls into the contents of the unit.

I would be more concerned if the association DID NOT hold EQ insurance, if you are looking in an area prone to many small quakes. That said, the deductible will still have the association fixing/assessing for most modest damage.

In the Seattle urban area, in a small townhouse complex, the deductible is $25,000 per building. Most townhouse complexes have multiple buildings.

Secondly, if you are serious about buying a condo, you should look at the Codes, Covenants, and Restrictions document (CCR's) for the clause that explains what happens in the event of a total loss. Most likely, earthquake total loss is not the top reason for total loss, but fire.

- Rita