Feb 27 damage

[Running_Man]

General / FIRE and Money / Re: Another indicator shows recession on: January 09, 2007, 01:45:22 PM
Copper is a metal with more limited speculative appeal than the other metal. It is very much a industrial metal influenced greatly by industrial consumption. A long term chart of the metal is a very intesting study and one tool to use in gauging economic activity.

The drop in copper was one of the contributors to my prediction of a -29% drop in stock market for 2006. It is correlating well with the drop on housing activity. The next step would be a drop in the stock market before the drop in economic activity would become apparent inthe large context and my very possibly flawed thinking. If the market holds up or advances in the following 3 months then I would think there will not be a recession.

I sincerely hope that I turn out to be incorrect, nothing good happens in recessions.

Shortly after I posted this I sold my 25% stock position and reset at 100% fixed income. So today I collected my interest check. Starting on March 31st I will begin to move 1% of my portfolio back into stocks each month.

Normally a bear market will last 18-24 months and that is what I expect, however I keep a watch to determine if there are indications to show my thinking is wrong. So far that has not been the case and fundamentals I follow continue to falter. In 2 years I will have about 25% back in the markets, at that point I will begin moving towards 50% in the market which is my upper limit as a percentage of my portfolio. It is only with a plan such as this that I will be able to buy into the rapid declines that occur in a bear market.

 

[ijuba]

I am in the process of consolidating/liquidating some accounts for an anticipated move into total Vanguard portfolio - so damage was limited only to -1.3%.

Sometimes you're the windshield - sometimes you're the bug...... 8)

 

[audreyh1]

Curious what bonds rallied 2.5% - long treasuries were up about 1.2%. Do you own a lot of zero-coupon issues?

That's how Yahoo reports things - they just show the interest rate and they list 10-yr up 2.55% and 5-yr up 3.01%. Without seeing the actual bond value I can't verify. Obviously it's squirrelly because they report in terms of the interest rate not the value.

Looks like my bonds funds in total were up about 0.43% today
My stock funds in total were down 2.90%

Audrey

 

[kat]

Down 1.7, not as bad as I expected.

 

[Jaction]

Only down 1.58%. Not bad for a 50/50 allocation.

Larry

 

[Corporateburnout]

Down 2.4% on a 63/37

Still 1.3% up for the year not bad since I forecasted a 5%-6% return for the year.

 

[larry]

Down 1.8%.

 

[wildcat]

I don't like this poll, I won't vote. Am I the only one? It's about time some volatility came back to the market. I didn't even look at my portfolio so my guess is......down.

 

[W2R]

Down 3.7% on my small Roth, which is not as well diversified yet as I would like. I only started it in November. Even including today's losses I have still made a few bucks on it.

Won't know about most of my other losses until tomorrow. They should be a smaller percentage since they are better diversified.

 

[2B]

I lost a years living expenses but in February I'm still ahead 9 months. Of course, tomorrow is another day.

 

[runchman]

a tad over 3%. Previously my best 'up' day barometer was 10.5k.... now my biggest down day barometer is 23.5k.

The best thing is, with my coming to the understanding of having an asset allocation and sticking with it long term, today doesn't faze me in the least.

I keep track of my portfolio balance monthly, it's nice to be able to look back 6 months or a year or whatever, and see how far you are still ahead since then.

- John

 

[Leonidas]

I'm sure someone on this board see 6 digits today. Ouch!

DING! DING! DING!

Nothing like living in exciting times, eh?

 

[maddythebeagle]

All I can say is that it could have been a lot worse today....You have to tip your hat to the intrepid heroes of the "Plunge Protection Team"........

http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=4173.0

 

[bssc]

I don't like this poll, I won't vote. Am I the only one? It's about time some volatility came back to the market. I didn't even look at my portfolio so my guess is......down.

No idea but must be down some. I am not going to worry unless it goes down 50%

 

[Dawg52]

Down 1.6%. Not horrible but not fun to watch either. Got some cash sitting on the side lines so might nibble at a couple of things if the trend continues.

 

[retire@40]

I'm down $20,565 today.

At one point a $1,000 hit would have bothered me, but for some reason the hit today doesn't phase me at all.

I'm still playing with the house's money.

 

[firewhen]

I do not know exactly because I only record net worth and balances at year-end. But my funds were down on average about 3.5%. This probably puts me even for the year. While the dollar loss is frightening, about 15 years ago what I lost today would have been about all the money I had, so it is all perspective. I have never sold anything, even in the depths of 2000-2002, so while I do not like the drops, it does not affect what I do.

 

[haha]

Down 1.5%. Bonds neutral, stocks down, puts up but not enough to fully offset decline as some were pretty far out-of-the-money.

If it continues (over Paulsen's dead body I would imagine) the puts will be a larger positive factor.

Ha

 

[73ss454]

I didn't look at what I was down today. But I was buying like crazy all day. Let's see how smart I am tomorrow.

 

[Alan]

I only update my spreadsheet that calculates overal gains and losses once a month. Since I'm going out of town for a few days and all the excitement today I have updated and I am up 1.43% on the year. Not sure and don't much care about the 1 day loss. But from the total figure I remember seeing a few days ago last time I looked I would estimate a drop of approx 1.5%. I say a drop rather than the word "damage" since the damage only occurs when you actually sell.

 

[Bikerdude]

Heard that Suze Orman will be going on Larry King tonight to calm the trembling masses of investors!

"Pillow lips" was on NBC news tonight. I feel much calmer now.

 

[HFWR]

-0.6%

 

[Spanky]

down 1.25% today, YTD is 1.1%.

 

[Spanky]

I'm still only 50% stocks..... so 3% of that? The nice thing is I've had 25% in MM waiting for for things to pull back. Not trying to time the market......just needing to increase my stock portion, but not wanting to buy until a more appropriate time.

Are you ready to buy now? If not, are you anticipating further decline?

 

[firedude]

Since I am relatively new to the market and lump summed company stock options in December this is my first real test of my ability to be a solid "buy and hold" investor. I took a 3% hit today in excess of $25,000 and didn't like it one bit. You seasoned investors offer words of encouragment but for us newer investors...damn this hurts. If this keeps up I'm going to be playing with my money eventually and then I'll see how tough I am.