Fermion's Biotech Investing (All Welcome)

[Fermion]

One interesting thesis on Gilead is that they spin off the Hep C business, which has great profits but declining growth, and keep the core HIV plus the pipeline (NASH, etc.).

The Hep C business is probably worth $40B to $50B even with the declining revenues. The HIV drugs had a growth of 17%, but because of the decline in new HCV business, they had an overall decline in YoY revenue. If they dump the HCV and bring the market cap down to about 60B with $15B revenue from HIV and 17% growth, the stock will sport a PE much greater than the current 7.

Just one of the many ways the current $79 share price could make you a ton of money.

 

[Fermion]

Epclusa, Gilead's new pan-genotypic single pill cure for Hep C had a 27.6% week over week gain in new prescriptions. While I am sure this is cannibalizing Harvoni and Sovaldi sales, it probably means they are holding their own in market share (around 90%).

Should be a pretty solid bottom here around $79 unless the whole market just tanks before the election. I wish I had a higher net worth so I could justify more than 2000 shares but that is already a tad high for one stock.

 

[eytonxav]

I just have a small stake in IBB. Many of these companies just have research going for them and no real earnings, so it probably takes more in the way of scientific knowledge and research to pick and choose individual companies that may pay off, so I'll leave that to the experts.

 

[Fermion]

Actually the IBB has a large portion of biotech which are quite profitable. It is a good index to hold if you are not picking and choosing.

 

[Fermion]

Sold 500 Gilead just now at $80.20 purchased at $78.80

Yes this is picking up pennies in front of a steam roller but I can't just sit back and let it ebb and flow a dollar a week without doing something productive.

Have 1500 shares now, will buy back 500 again under $79. Sigh.

One day they will figure out how to make this company shine.

 

[wmc1000]

article on GILD - Would Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) Need to Split up to Survive?

 

[Fermion]

Survive seems a little drastic considering they have 24B in cash and are making about $7B+ a year on the growing HIV segment alone.

Still, the split could mean an instant 20% gain in the share price which I and others on here would not complain about. I don't know if management would do it.

 

[wmc1000]

I have a sell order at 84.25 so would lose out on most of a 20% rise anyway!

 

[wmc1000]

Pharmacy Benefit Managers limiting coverage of certain drugs for 2017?
from GoodRX blog


Which drugs are affected?

Caremark in particular is making some major changes for 2016, which fall under three general categories: “hyperinflation” drugs (drugs that have had recent drastic price increases), new biosimilar alternatives, and stricter restrictions on expensive cancer and hepatitis C medications.

Hyperinflation. Caremark has identified some drugs that have had huge price increases, and excluded a selection that have similar alternatives in the same class of medications. One example is Alcortin A, which saw a 30-fold price hike over the past three years.

Biosimilars. You may have heard news over the past year or so about “biosimilars”—basically, generic medications for some specialty or biologic medications like insulin. (For more background on biosimilars, see our post here.)

Notably, Caremark will no longer cover Lantus, one of the most popular insulin brands.

Caremark is the first provider to restrict brand name drugs like Neupogen or Lantus that have (or will have) biosimilars available next year. They are suggesting Zarxio in place of Neupogen, and Basaglar in place of Lantus.

Express Scripts, in contrast, haven’t restricted coverage for either Lantus or Neupogen yet, but are maintaining that they plan to reassess based on upcoming product launches over the next year.

Expensive specialty medications. Caremark is also breaking ground by being the first provider to restrict coverage on brand name cancer treatments.

They are also restricting coverage for all of the new hepatitis C treatments, allowing only Sovaldi and Harvoni.

Express Scripts has similar—but not overlapping—restrictions, limiting coverage to only Viekira Pak and the newly approved Technivie, both from manufacturer Gilead.

 

[Fermion]

Viekera Pak is not from Gilead. That is AbbVie's 6 pill per day competition drug to Gilead's Harvoni and now Epclusa (which treats all types and will for a while be the one to beat).

 

[Fermion]

My Endocyte (ECYT) is getting some action today for some reason. Nearly at the full day volume just an hour into the market and the stock is at $3.34 when it was trading at $3.05.

I only have 5000 shares but it would be exciting to wake up and see a four digit number on the price (including cents of course!)

 

[wmc1000]

Barrons cut price target for GILD slightly form $114 to $112

Gilead Sciences: It’s Not Just Hepatitis C That’s Disappointing - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

 

[Fermion]

Today I had a limit order for Gilead at $79.50 which hit, so back to 2000 shares.

I also bought back 3000 shares of Endocyte at 3.04 which I had sold for 3.30 Monday, so quite happy with that.

 

[wmc1000]

GILD getting a little beat up today.

 

[aja8888]

GILD getting a little beat up today.

It's their turn in the barrel.

 

[mamadogmamacat]

I only dabble in individual stocks in what i call my "play" portfolio, seeded with a total of 20k three yrs ago. Up to just under 30k now. In that portfolio my only biotech is REGN. Chose that biotech co for my own interest in its drugs for mac degen and cholesterol drugs plus low or no debt and a measure of profitability as compared to so many in this sector. Has done well for me, and I have pulled out my original investment and am letting the rest ride. Again, this is just a "play" portfolio representing a very small percentage of assets,

 

[wmc1000]

picked up another 250 of GILD at $77.96

 

[Fermion]

Hold some dry powder for low 70s on Gilead if the overall market crashes in September. Then buy and resell it in the 80s when they recover this December.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am holding 46% in cash right now. If the market crashes, there will be more things for me to buy. It's healthy for the market to lose some froth. Right now, it's hard to find bargains, and the cheap stocks are so for a reason, and some get even cheaper.

 

[wmc1000]

patent infringement claim - University of Minnesota sues Gilead Sciences over patents for hepatitis drugs - StarTribune.com

 

[Fermion]

patent infringement claim - University of Minnesota sues Gilead Sciences over patents for hepatitis drugs - StarTribune.com

Hope Minnesota isn't found out to be lying like Merck did. Merck had to pay Gilead instead of making money off them. Might be bad for Minnesota's tuition fund.

 

[Sunset]

patent infringement claim - University of Minnesota sues Gilead Sciences over patents for hepatitis drugs - StarTribune.com

who knew ?? (besides lots of insiders & family of course)
I could guess this is the reason for the decline.

 

[Fermion]

Sold 500 Gilead for $78.50 today for a small profit. Really picking up the pennies in front of the steamroller now, but what else is there to do? The price remains very suppressed. Also sold some Endocyte for $3.11 which I bought at $2.97. Sounds small, but I deal in 10,000 shares.

 

[Fermion]

Sold more Gilead today at $79. Still just picking up pennies, but they are starting to need rolling. Amazing you can make money on a falling stock as long as it keeps choppy. My first buy of Gilead was at $90 and I am still net positive on my investment.

 

[Fermion]

With the market down 2% Gilead is only down 0.6%. Seems to have found some temporary support here around $77 to $78.

Gives me some greater confidence it will hold up better than most if we get more market malaise.