I was at 100% using FIRECALC as well as other calculators. With the current increase to the portfolio is says I could spend more. I won't spend more for now as I see that as a "cushion" if there is a pull back in the market.
90%+ was close enough for me to take the risk, if you look at my intro most people on here disagreed, we are now at 97.2%. I figure I have a long time and many factors that will impact the numbers over time and I can adjust.
I have no idea what SS or health care or inflation will look like 20-25 years from now, but I do know I'll still be better off than most of America which is good enough for me.
There is still upside in our plan, a potential for some inheritance, honey is working part-time which funds his pet projects that he thinks will make passive income on eventually, and better tax planning.
You may want to run a lot of scenarios and see how much variation is there.
For example, for my specifics, $20K was the difference between 94.1 and 96.1% as it knocks out 2 failed cycles, so sure no problem I can work and save $20K more and now I'm magically above 95%. We have $100K more before we hit 100%, but again, SS changes or taxes or anything else, that could drop below 100%, I'm not worried about it, so I keep my car one more year or skip a vacation one year, etc.
I often am less worried about the 90/95/100% and more worried about the Expense # being padded enough.
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I often am less worried about the 90/95/100% and more worried about the Expense # being padded enough.
So how low a success rate using the FIRE calculator would you take and pull the trigger?
Were you at 100%? 90%? 80%? Lower?
pull (one's) leg
To tease or joke with someone, often by trying to convince him or her of something untrue
If I include pensions and SS (which we are currently not taking) in firecalc, we are at less than a 2% WR. So, something north of 100%, hopefully.
I'm at 200% and it still makes me nervous, but I worry a lot.
80% and I would sleep very easily. If fate started to pull me down the unfortunate 20%, all I’d have to do is slash discretionary spending and perhaps try to monetize a hobby. Weather the storm for a few years, perhaps even a decade, and then proceed with my prodigal ways.
Once I hit 100% I quit checking.
100%, well actually more than that but the FIRECal speedometer was pegged....