Firecalc bug?

[jeff2006]

entered these parameters into advanced FC:

Portfolio -- 100% S&P-500, 1 million
start retirement in 2018

plan ends in 40 years -- SWR is 64,951 for 100% success

plan ends in 45 years -- SWR is 72,666 for 100% success

Seems implausible that the longer plan should heve the higher WD . . .

 

[dory36]

If you select "End-of-year portfolio balances (text)" you will see that retirements starting in ~1961 - ~1965 failed, while others succeeded, when using your figures and a $65,000 withdrawal rate.

Those would not be picked up by a 45 year retirement because there were not 45 years of data available starting after ~1961, so the last cycle tested would have started in about 1960.


By the way -- your input implies you are investing a million today and letting it grow until 2018, not that you hope to get to 1 million by 2018. You probably realize this, but others might not.

 

[jeff2006]

Hi, Dory -- thanks very much for the explanation. I understand what you're saying. Best regards . . .