First graph I have seen in a long time that makes me want to sell stocks

[nativenewenglander]

We can defeat your bunker and tin foil when we want.

The scary thought is how you knew I was wearing my tinfoil hat.

 

[W2R]

The scary thought is how you knew I was wearing my tinfoil hat.

Because we all have matching headgear. (well, some of us do)

Seriously, I'm not that worried although maybe I should be. In 2008 a lot of people were saying "this time it's different". Looking back at it, gee, it seems like it was just another rotten recession and not all that different.

 

[NW-Bound]

I think sooner than later, it will toll 20 trillion times.
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

We will just default and reset the clock. Easy peasy. Any objection?

 

[Boho]

Maybe more frequent trading is a good way to deal with this so you have more cash more of the time. Each time you sell, you'll wait for a drop, then one day as you're waiting for the decline to slow, it will keep going. Even if it's normally not the best way to invest, maybe in times like this the extra work and smaller gains will pay off. I might try calculating how much I'd loose doing that when the market is strong and how much I'd gain if there's a recession in, say, 2 years.

Ironically, there are people who claim they get good results using a system like this all the time, but I might feel safer following a system that underperformed an index by an amount that I could live with considering a nearing recession. I'd trust someone who says they underperformed an index more than I'd trust a little used system that someone claims out-performed an index.

 

[imoldernu]

Debt Ceiling due March 15.
$20 Trillion

Just sayin'

U.S. debt ceiling of $20 trillion-plus to be reached soon in next presidency - MarketWatch

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52465

Day after tomorrow... Waddya think?

 

[Boho]

What's the debt limit and why is Congress about to raise it again?

What would be the impact if the government defaults on its debts?

No one knows for sure because Congress has never allowed it to happen, but economists say it could plunge the U.S. back into recession and spark a global economic crisis.

 

[MichaelB]

Is there a point to the posts on the debt ceiling?

 

[target2019]

Is there a point to the posts on the debt ceiling?

Some of us can't stay on topic. That includes me.
☺

 

[MichaelB]

Some of us can't stay on topic. That includes me.
☺

Straying off topic is something we all enjoy.

My question on the debt ceiling is more about all the posts with no comments or opinions, just links. If it is relevant, perhaps the poster can share his or her own opinion as to why.

 

[imoldernu]

Straying off topic is something we all enjoy.

My question on the debt ceiling is more about all the posts with no comments or opinions, just links. If it is relevant, perhaps the poster can share his or her own opinion as to why.

Perhaps the debt ceiling has no effect on stocks. I was reminded of the nervous time in 2011 after the 2008 problems, which is outlined here:

The crisis sparked the most volatile week for financial markets since the 2008 crisis, with the stock market trending significantly downward. Prices of government bonds ("Treasuries"), rose as investors, anxious over the dismal prospects of the US economic future and the ongoing European sovereign-debt crisis, fled into the still-perceived relative safety of US government bonds. Later that week, the credit-rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit rating of the United States government for the first time in the country's history, though the other two major credit-rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch, retained America's credit rating at AAA. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimated that the delay in raising the debt ceiling increased government borrowing costs by $1.3 billion in 2011 and also pointed to unestimated higher costs in later years.[1] The Bipartisan Policy Center extended the GAO's estimates and found that delays in raising the debt ceiling would raise borrowing costs by $18.9 billion.[2]]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis_of_2011

Maybe we're so used to this now, that any delay in extending the limit won't affect stocks, but the temporary coverage from the treasury to continue paying obligations only works to a so-called "X Day", when the limit is no longer able to be extended. The Interim period of uncertainty could cause some instability in markets. The shorter the period between the March 15 date, and the legal extension of the ceiling, the less effect on the national and international markets.

Just my take on the debt ceiling.

 

[TreeHugger]

I wonder why Hussman Funds HSGFX, HSIEX and HSTRX where such a dogs since 2002 compared to S&P 500? Returns of 20, -1 and -48% while S&P is up 167%.

I would ignore any comments from Mr. Hussman.

 

[imoldernu]

The Crash Guru:

Crash guru warns the Dow could plunge to 14,800 — a sign could come this week - MarketWatch

I couldn't figure out the rationale, or understand his charts, but maybe it'll mean something to people here on ER...

As he has done in the past, Jadeja offers up specific dates around which he expects “potential volatility for market declines.” One of those is March 13 — Monday. But if that doesn’t materialize, then he says watch out for May 11. He’s more concerned about the latter date than the former.

 

[Boho]

I read that yesterday. Jadeja's a nut job.

 

[razztazz]

A 30% tumble wouldn't be anything untoward. This forum makes mention of how the market if not the economy is extended, too far ahead of itself, overpriced, CAPE references etc. 30% looks like a logical, even welcomed retrenchment. If I had more confidence in the time frame it might actually happen, I would consider selling some now just to get back in at the better price. We are also in the first two years of a new president's term. That's supposed to correlate with this sort of thing.