Ed_The_Gypsy
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I have been ignoring Yahoo's financial columnists until now. (Who can take Robert Kiyosaki seriously? "Tired of the same old financial advice?" Then do illeagal and stupid things to fend off enui. )
However, Ben Stein is down there at the bottom of the list of columnists and I looked at his stuff today. As laconic as he normally comes off on the tube, his columns are really gems, IMHO. Take a look:
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/archives/headline/yourlife/2006/1 and .../2005/1
One column is not listed:
Income That Lasts as Long as You Need It.
Http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/yourlife/2312?p=1
Worthy of reading, at least.
At the risk of boring everyone, here is an abstract of some of his columns:
A Retirement Portfolio With Staying Power
50% REIT ETF/50% high-income ETF
Monte Carlo: 30 yrs,
4% ed 99.99% (1/10,000); average case 16X starting value
5% ed 99+%; most likely scenario leaves 9X starting value;
1/10,000 of running out in 18 yrs
Income That Lasts as Long as You Need It.
Http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/yourlife/2312?p=1
variable annuities
his parents, economists, bought a VA. Still paying out 6 years after their deaths.
Good references, warnings.
Living Hand-to-Mouth and Barely Getting By
dire warnings.
Medicare will be bankrupt in 11 years
we are living on borrowed time.
Standards of Life in the Future: Think Grim
[don't fly United. Doggies, Ben, I coulda told you that. ]
Americans need to have saved $400k to even start to think of getting by (living on half their income). Avg $50k, $110k w/ home
at 65, put half in an annuity, fixed or VA.
“But be very scared -- and start doing something about it now. Tomorrow is too late. Do it now.”
Three Big Mistakes in Retirement Planning
1.not matching liabilities to assets. [translation: plan to pay for your retirement.]
2.Failing to see that the bad scenario can and often does happen.
3.Failing to educate himself or hire a finance specialist [CFP] to take care of him.
From 65 to 85, 3.5% inflation will double costs.
Ray Lucia, “Buckets of Money”
Another friend, CFP: go 70-30 stocks-bonds and go for broad indexing worldwide for heavy emphasis on emerging market and micro-cap areas.
The Cruel Truth About Retirement
40 yr-old woman, earning $100k:
70% in stocks:
35% in Vanguard Total US Stock Fund (90% S&P, 10'% small stock)
35% in Vanguard Total International Stock Market (90% EAFE large stocks, 10% emerging market)
[corrected version:]
Must save 14% of pre-tax, post-contribution income to get $1.8MM: to replace 80% of 85% = 68% of her present pre-tax income. W/d @4.25% increased by inflation each year
=90% chance of staying comfortable until 87, not counting SS, and 75% chance of making it through 100
Not counting on SS.
A 65 yr-old retiree is still a long-term investor
Work Adds Shine to Your Golden Years
Suggests it may be better to work part-time from 65-75, health permitting.
other stuff: China, oil prices.
..............................
His choices of asset categories is very similar to mine, so obviously, he is a man of perception. : (It doesn't hurt that they have been giving incredible returns for the past few years.)
He is a proponent of variable annuities. (Calm down, now! Whatever John Greaney thinks of annuities, I think they have a place.)
1) They are better than nothing. A lot of teachers are not living under bridges today because of TIA-CREF annuities.
2) At some point in one's life, it is desirable to have automatic distributions. At some point, I expect that I will not be able to handle my own affairs. Others have the same concerns, I know. (We have a lot of teachers in the family.) This is not a trivial concern for an older person.
3) Ben's parents (both economists!) bought into variable annuities--apparantly very carefully, because Ben allows as how, 6 years after their deaths (Ben, how does that work?), the distributions are many times what they were anticipated to be (? read it yourself; it is foggy tonite here.)
Ben Stein is an engaging writer and has an ability to write economically with punch that I have seldom seen since the script of "To The Manor Born", in particular the final episode.
Ed The Tree-Hugging Gypsy,
tired after cleaning up the shoreline of a reservoir in Calgary today.
However, Ben Stein is down there at the bottom of the list of columnists and I looked at his stuff today. As laconic as he normally comes off on the tube, his columns are really gems, IMHO. Take a look:
http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/archives/headline/yourlife/2006/1 and .../2005/1
One column is not listed:
Income That Lasts as Long as You Need It.
Http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/yourlife/2312?p=1
Worthy of reading, at least.
At the risk of boring everyone, here is an abstract of some of his columns:
A Retirement Portfolio With Staying Power
50% REIT ETF/50% high-income ETF
Monte Carlo: 30 yrs,
4% ed 99.99% (1/10,000); average case 16X starting value
5% ed 99+%; most likely scenario leaves 9X starting value;
1/10,000 of running out in 18 yrs
Income That Lasts as Long as You Need It.
Http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/yourlife/2312?p=1
variable annuities
his parents, economists, bought a VA. Still paying out 6 years after their deaths.
Good references, warnings.
Living Hand-to-Mouth and Barely Getting By
dire warnings.
Medicare will be bankrupt in 11 years
we are living on borrowed time.
Standards of Life in the Future: Think Grim
[don't fly United. Doggies, Ben, I coulda told you that. ]
Americans need to have saved $400k to even start to think of getting by (living on half their income). Avg $50k, $110k w/ home
at 65, put half in an annuity, fixed or VA.
“But be very scared -- and start doing something about it now. Tomorrow is too late. Do it now.”
Three Big Mistakes in Retirement Planning
1.not matching liabilities to assets. [translation: plan to pay for your retirement.]
2.Failing to see that the bad scenario can and often does happen.
3.Failing to educate himself or hire a finance specialist [CFP] to take care of him.
From 65 to 85, 3.5% inflation will double costs.
Ray Lucia, “Buckets of Money”
Another friend, CFP: go 70-30 stocks-bonds and go for broad indexing worldwide for heavy emphasis on emerging market and micro-cap areas.
The Cruel Truth About Retirement
40 yr-old woman, earning $100k:
70% in stocks:
35% in Vanguard Total US Stock Fund (90% S&P, 10'% small stock)
35% in Vanguard Total International Stock Market (90% EAFE large stocks, 10% emerging market)
[corrected version:]
Must save 14% of pre-tax, post-contribution income to get $1.8MM: to replace 80% of 85% = 68% of her present pre-tax income. W/d @4.25% increased by inflation each year
=90% chance of staying comfortable until 87, not counting SS, and 75% chance of making it through 100
Not counting on SS.
A 65 yr-old retiree is still a long-term investor
Work Adds Shine to Your Golden Years
Suggests it may be better to work part-time from 65-75, health permitting.
other stuff: China, oil prices.
..............................
His choices of asset categories is very similar to mine, so obviously, he is a man of perception. : (It doesn't hurt that they have been giving incredible returns for the past few years.)
He is a proponent of variable annuities. (Calm down, now! Whatever John Greaney thinks of annuities, I think they have a place.)
1) They are better than nothing. A lot of teachers are not living under bridges today because of TIA-CREF annuities.
2) At some point in one's life, it is desirable to have automatic distributions. At some point, I expect that I will not be able to handle my own affairs. Others have the same concerns, I know. (We have a lot of teachers in the family.) This is not a trivial concern for an older person.
3) Ben's parents (both economists!) bought into variable annuities--apparantly very carefully, because Ben allows as how, 6 years after their deaths (Ben, how does that work?), the distributions are many times what they were anticipated to be (? read it yourself; it is foggy tonite here.)
Ben Stein is an engaging writer and has an ability to write economically with punch that I have seldom seen since the script of "To The Manor Born", in particular the final episode.
Ed The Tree-Hugging Gypsy,
tired after cleaning up the shoreline of a reservoir in Calgary today.