Among_Primates
Dryer sheet wannabe
I'm a new member, so please forgive me if I commit any errors of custom.
I've used Firecalc pretty steadily for 3-4 years now. Until the last six months or so, my results were fairly consistent. Lately I've been getting two distinct scenarios from the same data (and occasionally a weird outlier). I'm at the point where I've been running the program a couple of times a day and tracking the results.
Result 1: the historically usual result, the one that I was used to over time, is what I'll call "the Kind Scenario." When it comes up these days, I find that my first-stage result (after entering savings, spending, retirement year, money to be added till then, pension and Social Security, and a 50-50 equity/bond split) is 81.9%. According to this scenario, I could retire now and life wouldn't be too bad -- especially when I add the "stage-two data" like portfolio changes (from the future sale of my house, etc.) Then it shoots up to 89.9%. Yay!
Result 2: More frequently of late, I face "the Harsh Scenario." Entering the exact same first-stage data gives me 47.9%. As soon as I see that figure, I know which scenario I'm facing. Adding portfolio changes to this one only gets me to 56.3%. According to this, I'd better continue working for a while.
Over the last few months, the Harsh Scenario's been coming up about 80 percent of the time.
I know you're thinking, "User error is the most likely explanation. No judgment! It's easy to make a typo, to add or lose a zero. Or maybe you did something like leaving the default on 'off chart spending' instead of changing it to 'pension income,' which would make it look as though you were losing money rather than adding. Or what if you put in the year of retirement wrong?"
So I check all those things, and more, religiously. I will add that I used to be a proofreader. And my computer pretty much has the exact same numbers stored and brings them up for me. (Which doesn't stop me from re-checking them obsessively.)
Just to add to the mix, twice now I've gotten what I call an "outlier scenario." Got one this morning, in fact, in which my usual first-stage data resulted in a ZERO success percentage. That was so crazy I figured it HAD to be some kind of typo!
Except... it doesn't seem to be. Bizarre. But at this point I'm no longer taking my results seriously.
Thoughts? Is anyone else seeing changes of any kind over the last several months? Has it become harder or easier to reach your goal? Or maybe people don't run Firecalc with the obsessive frequency that I do.
I've used Firecalc pretty steadily for 3-4 years now. Until the last six months or so, my results were fairly consistent. Lately I've been getting two distinct scenarios from the same data (and occasionally a weird outlier). I'm at the point where I've been running the program a couple of times a day and tracking the results.
Result 1: the historically usual result, the one that I was used to over time, is what I'll call "the Kind Scenario." When it comes up these days, I find that my first-stage result (after entering savings, spending, retirement year, money to be added till then, pension and Social Security, and a 50-50 equity/bond split) is 81.9%. According to this scenario, I could retire now and life wouldn't be too bad -- especially when I add the "stage-two data" like portfolio changes (from the future sale of my house, etc.) Then it shoots up to 89.9%. Yay!
Result 2: More frequently of late, I face "the Harsh Scenario." Entering the exact same first-stage data gives me 47.9%. As soon as I see that figure, I know which scenario I'm facing. Adding portfolio changes to this one only gets me to 56.3%. According to this, I'd better continue working for a while.
Over the last few months, the Harsh Scenario's been coming up about 80 percent of the time.
I know you're thinking, "User error is the most likely explanation. No judgment! It's easy to make a typo, to add or lose a zero. Or maybe you did something like leaving the default on 'off chart spending' instead of changing it to 'pension income,' which would make it look as though you were losing money rather than adding. Or what if you put in the year of retirement wrong?"
So I check all those things, and more, religiously. I will add that I used to be a proofreader. And my computer pretty much has the exact same numbers stored and brings them up for me. (Which doesn't stop me from re-checking them obsessively.)
Just to add to the mix, twice now I've gotten what I call an "outlier scenario." Got one this morning, in fact, in which my usual first-stage data resulted in a ZERO success percentage. That was so crazy I figured it HAD to be some kind of typo!
Except... it doesn't seem to be. Bizarre. But at this point I'm no longer taking my results seriously.
Thoughts? Is anyone else seeing changes of any kind over the last several months? Has it become harder or easier to reach your goal? Or maybe people don't run Firecalc with the obsessive frequency that I do.