How Are You Calculating Amount of Risk While Returning to Somewhat Normal?

[gcgang]

Was in Vegas playing Blackjack SuperBowl week when a cheer went up from the employees. Most took their masks off. The state, and Gaming Commission, had just repealed the mask mandate.

I, too, removed my mask. But upon further reflection, I’m old, fat and smoke cigars. Although boosted, I put my well fitted n95 mask back on. Lol.

 

[KarenF]

Did you check your COVID community level at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/covid-by-county.html ?

Lucky me, my area is still “high.” Very few people wearing masks anyway. I think the current CDC guidelines are too complicated for many people, like the rainbow of terror threat levels that came out after 9/11.

I hope the CDC guidelines are not too complicated. Three levels and only mask with red. I saved the website to my phone and look up my county and surrounding counties every few days.

 

[Badger]

Which would require removing your mask, which it sounds like they didn't want to do.

No. I tried it and all that has to be done is slip the end of the straw under the mask. There may be a small (very small) opening that can be held shut as the straw is being used. Simple. The mask does not have to be removed. Try it. I did to see if it would be feasible. It is.
You are probably correct in that they just didn't want to do it.




Cheers!

 

[eyenitnoy]

We are both vaccinated and boosted. While I usually only mask where the establishment requires it or I see many other people doing it, I mask to be polite to them rather than out of concern for myself. I guess if I was in an environment where I felt uncomfortable then I would either mask up or leave.

I'm trying to tip-toe on the fine line between prudence and paranoia.

If you are vaccinated and boosted, without immune issues, the data is clear:

Ditch the mask. It has no value whatsoever.

 

[jeffmete]

It’s like there are two countries out there, the one where everybody is masked and showing vac status to eat and the rest of the country. I haven’t worn a mask except for dr app for probably a year. I am vac and boosted. All my kids had the Covid before the vaccine came out.

 

[Gearhead Jim]

https://covidactnow.org/us/illinois-il/county/mc_henry_county/?s=30651923

That link allows you to check the rates in any county or metro area in the USA.
Let's try to calculate some actual risk.

Right now my county is experiencing about 8 new cases per day, per 100k people.
If we figure that the typical person is contagious for 5 days before they either isolate or start to recover, that means on any day there are (8 x 5) 40 people per 100k who are contagious. Which means 1 person in 2,500 is contagious.

There will also be asymptomatic people who can spread the disease; but we can use distancing and masking and vaxing to reduce that risk, so I go with the 1/2,500 number as a start.
Just because we are near someone who is infected does not mean we'll get sick.

That sounds pretty good. But the risk is cumulative- you can theoretically get exposed by being with 2,500 people at once, or 300 people 8 times, etc.
Can anyone refine my algorithm for the risk?

We are vaxed and boosted (September). Now that Pfizer and Moderna have asked approval for a second booster, and Israel has been doing that for several months without apparent problems; I'm hearing of people who "forgot" their vaccination card and getting a second booster now. Any thoughts?

 

[meleana]

By June of 2020 honestly we decided to live as normally as possible. We only wear a mask as required in medical facilities.

We moved out of state right before the pandemic hit, but have had more of a social life the past 2 years than we ever had in our lives.

Plus have gone to restaurants, movie theaters, live cultural venues like comedy shows, the lake beaches and state parks,, the community pool, at our community club house has had a number of parties for the residents, neighbors house parties., barbecues. In addition have attended community meetings.

Have always gone to stores.

Very thankful.

 

[Alan]

Thanks for the interesting discussion.

Note that posts have been deleted as the thread drifted into partisan politics.