But SWR theory would have me pulling out $40,000 from an even smaller portfolio and still claim I will be ok- without Uncle Fester's bequest I would have withdrawn down to $960,000 and the market would have dragged that down to $576,000-- and classic SWR theory is that even with the market tanking in that first year I should be able to take out MORE than $40,000 the next year (adjusted up for inflation- which barring a depression there would be some inflation)...so it seems given market history that the recovery from big dips has been so good that starting with a 6.67% SWR should be ok...in such scenarios in the past... It seems hard to believe but that is what the theory claims...so it would seem to me that your "max safe amount" is 4% of your max portfolio value that it ever reaches, adjusted up for inflation from that peak time.
So if my portfolio is now $5,000,000 but I am not actually touching it for the next 10 years...in 10 years my SWR is still going to be $200,000, (adjusted up for 10 years of inflation) even if my portfolio has sunk some during those 10 years..
Again I am not sure this is right, but I cannot see how it could work to spend from a portfolio at 4% of its peak and adjust up no matter what for 30 years and you survive, but if you -for what ever reason -do not touch your portfolio at its max value for any length of time--until after it drops -and then you start spending the exact same amount you would have spent had you started at peak --it has to work out at least as well....
Show me how this does not work...based on the same data that supports the Trinity SWR..not some predicted future of horrible returns that so far has not happened...