How I handle a market downturn

[W2R]

The market is going to go down and the market will go up. I believe very much I will be fine and I fully embrace the idea that my time right now while I have my health is too important to spend it worrying about stuff that is completely out of my control.

Age, and the wisdom that came with it combined with the death of loved ones and friends has sent my inner worry wart packing.

+1

I love your post! You sure seem to have your priorities straight.

 

[HadEnuff]

I was talking to some young people in my profession (dentistry) about 1 year ago. They all had graduated from school AFTER 2008, and one of them said "why should I be in bonds when I know I can make 10-15% every year in the stock market", and "My risk tolerance is very high"...I told him that "you really don't know what your 'risk tolerance' is until you see your nestegg drop 40% in a week"...Now here I am, a solid Bernstein AA guy, the sun is just rising on my retirement and sunavabeetch, I'm being tested right out of the gate.

As someone early on said, "Double Stoli in the rocks, and keep 'em coming!"

 

[W2R]

I run Firecalc often and today I ran it with several scenarios to see what our spending would be in several scenarios.

Good idea.

I like to cope with uncertain market conditions in similar ways.

For example: I withdrew my 2016 spending money from my portfolio on January 1st and computed the WR as a percentage of my portfolio value as of 12/31. That's pretty normal for people to do, but I must admit that I also computed what my WR would have been, as a percentage of my 2008-2009 lowest portfolio value.

(3.99%, so I guess I am OK for a while.)

 

[pb4uski]

We are investors, not traders. IMO, any assessment of returns over a period of less than 3 years is a fools errand.

Quicken says my 3 and 5 year returns are in the 8% range, which I think is outstanding and much more than the assumption in my retirement plan. My portfolio is 19% more than when I retired at the end of 2011 and 22% more than what I projected it would be at this time back when I retired.

Unfortunately, I only have two lots in my taxable accounts with losses and they total a whopping $400.

So the glass is definitely more than half full.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

I have already had a downturn (oil and gas). If there is another downturn somewhere else, we may be eating seed corn, but we will still be OK. I still have a Plan B and a Plan C, both of which involve uprooting--one closer than the other.

For work in my profession, I have always been able to find work when my peers could not because of breadth, flexibility and a packed suitcase. I can still do that, but these days (gettin' old, y'hear?), I prefer to be home at night, so I can push a broom if necessary.

Also, there is really good box wine here.

P.S., I always have in mind that two dear friends died in 2015. It changes the perspective.

 

[shotgunner]

Hopefully everyone ran Firecalc prior to this downturn.

If you ran it after the downturn and your still 95% and greater I would suggest taking a nap, go for a walk, or perhaps go out to eat with friends. Nothing really important changed in your life.

 

[jimandthom]

Please talk me down from the edge. No clue what I have done, but when I first ran FireCalc a couple of months ago everything was good at only 1 failed cycle.

Just ran it 2xs with a reduced portfolio and got a 0 success rate. Would 15K down make that much of a difference?

 

[REWahoo]

No. You likely had some sort of input error.

 

[jimandthom]

No. You likely had some sort of input error.

Gawd I hope so, although I just went back through again. I really panicking that maybe I had an input error back in November. I wrote the amounts down at that time so I am entering the same $$.

Is it too early to start drinking?

 

[Chuckanut]

I once made the mistake of entering my Social security start date in the past. IIRC, FireCalc had me working like a slave until I was 99. Check you input data very carefully.

 

[REWahoo]

I once made the mistake of entering my Social security start date in the past. IIRC, FireCalc had me working like a slave until I was 99. Check you inputs data very carefully.

+1

All dates entered in FIRECalc must be either the current year or a future year.

 

[jimandthom]

I once made the mistake of entering my Social security start date in the past. IIRC, FireCalc had me working like a slave until I was 99. Check you inputs data very carefully.

Okay, you got me thinking---------would the same apply with pensions listed under off chart income? Please say yes, as it did make things almost back to normal.




Just saw the other post----------thank you, thank you, thank you. Now I can go outside and clean up dog doo and enjoy doing so.

 

[REWahoo]

Okay, you got me thinking---------would the same apply with pensions listed under off chart income? Please say yes, as it did make things almost back to normal.

Looks like you found your problem. "All dates entered in FIRECalc must be either the current year or a future year."

 

[Dawg52]

Gawd I hope so, although I just went back through again. I really panicking that maybe I had an input error back in November. I wrote the amounts down at that time so I am entering the same $$.

Is it too early to start drinking?

In a down market......no.

 

[Sunset]

Hopefully everyone ran Firecalc prior to this downturn.

That could be very misleading, since we had a nice run-up in stocks for the past many years.
Better to run Firecalc with only 75% of your investment amounts, and see if it works as we are approaching that quickly.

 

[Chuckanut]

Here's a comment from Jonathan Clements (a financial writer who I admire) on an article in today's WSJ:

The tone of the piece underscores what we know about most investors, both professional and amateur: They're fundamentally trend followers, growing exuberant as stock prices rise and fearful when prices drop. This makes no sense at all. Falling share prices should excite us, because eventually there may be bargains to be had, while rising prices should make us nervous.

 

[Corporateburnout]

That could be very misleading, since we had a nice run-up in stocks for the past many years.
Better to run Firecalc with only 75% of your investment amounts, and see if it works as we are approaching that quickly.

+1.

Before I pulled the plug two years ago I ran it with 27% reduction of my 50/50 AA portfolio simulating a market drop similar to 2007/2008 period when stocks lost 54%. I have not run it since.........

 

[W2R]

I forgot to mention, the most important way I handle a market downturn... I whistle a happy tune:

 

[shotgunner]

We are all playing the odds to retire early, if it was easy everyone would do it. Is this the first market down turn you have seen? As I said before the market goes up and the market goes down but everyday we have one less day to enjoy, focus on what you retired for.

 

[NW-Bound]

Why are these people investing in the stock market? if 3% drop in a couple of days is going to make them panic then they shouldn't be invested in equities...

+1. Kind of like going to a Thai restaurant and being afraid that you'll get spicy food.

Hey, they expected to be served jalapeno, and not habanero.

How can you sit there all relaxed when "eternal optimist" Marc Faber just said today S&P is going to drop 20-40% in next 6 months...Sell, sell, sell.

Look who's talking here, the one sitting on his pile of preferred stocks that are past call dates.

I once made the mistake of entering my Social security start date in the past. IIRC, FireCalc had me working like a slave until I was 99. Check you input data very carefully.

Well, if you already draw SS and do not think you have enough, of course the only way to get more income is to work till you croak.

That could be very misleading, since we had a nice run-up in stocks for the past many years.
Better to run Firecalc with only 75% of your investment amounts, and see if it works as we are approaching that quickly.

I just did that, and it's still 100% success, but what I can spend is right at my 2015 expense level. In other words, my safety margin is gone.

Well, not quite since I do not have to marry off a daughter every year, and have work done on my homes each year. In addition, the people I feed via charity donations will also have to tighten their belt some more, if that is even possible.

Oh man, I still have it easier than a lot of people. Have no reason to complain, really. I may still gas up that motorhome, just in case.

 

[ejman]

That could be very misleading, since we had a nice run-up in stocks for the past many years.
Better to run Firecalc with only 75% of your investment amounts, and see if it works as we are approaching that quickly.

Thank you. Great suggestion, just did that and feel better already, still at 100%. Maybe I should buy all 4 tires after all.

 

[Mulligan]

NW, It is not that I was smarter than anyone, its just that someone stole my "big boy pants" at a very opportune time. Logic side of my brain says since bond yields are going nowhere, this market despite all the despair from pundits must have some serious underpinnings at a certain price point. If a true panic would set in, I would strongly consider buying a new pair of big boy pants and re-enter. Im guessing I need 15% more which I probably wont get. Or I will, but then think I need 20% and miss the boat anyways.




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[NW-Bound]

NW, It is not that I was smarter than anyone, its just that someone stole my "big boy pants" at a very opportune time. Logic side of my brain says since bond yields are going nowhere, this market despite all the despair from pundits must have some serious underpinnings at a certain price point. If a true panic would set in, I would strongly consider buying a new pair of big boy pants and re-enter. Im guessing I need 15% more which I probably wont get. Or I will, but then think I need 20% and miss the boat anyways.

Just teasing. Right now, I envy your preferred stocks.

Truth be told, I knew about preferred stocks, but never looked that much into it until I read your thread. Then, I started to poke around, but the volume was so low that it would take a long time to me to get a good pile. So, my attention waned, as I looked for opportunities elsewhere (none worked out that well, to tell the truth).

Anyway, I did go down from my usual 80% stock down to 60%. Else, could have been a lot worse.

 

[Mulligan]

Just teasing. Right now, I envy your preferred stocks.

Truth be told, I knew about preferred stocks, but never looked that much into it until I read your thread. Then, I started to poke around, but the volume was so low that it would take a long time to me to get a good pile. So, my attention waned, as I looked for opportunities elsewhere (none worked out that well, to tell the truth).

Anyway, I did go down from my usual 80% stock down to 60%. Else, could have been a lot worse.

I know, NW. That is why I like posting you with you. Who just wants to read boring factual statements! Hey there are all sorts of preferred issues out there that are very liquid. Chesapeake Energy has all sorts of them! . Seriously there are some liquid ones out there such as the Wells Fargo and Cenex Harvest a Fortune 100 company that yield near 7% and trade thousands daily. It all comes down to price points. But yes, the old illiquid ones are very hard to get 6 figures in because many of the issues are barely 7 figure issues themselves and usually are stuffed away in a vault.
I did try an ill fated tippy toe into common stocks. Bought small 500 share amount of AHT (a reit) common to go with some preferreds of the company. That lasted about 3 weeks. Bought at $6.20 or so, collected a 12 cent divi, then noticed market was going to tank so I bailed at $6.10, now its down to $5.56 in a week. So there may be no hope for me if I can get skittish on a menial amount. The preferred which I will keep was only down a nickel this week at $25.10. Preferreds have escaped the storm so far. Though I believe reit preferreds are way more exposed to down drafts than utility preferreds are.


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[Coolius]

I have been buying utility and REIT preferreds for awhile now ( since 2012 ) but had to accumulate in small amounts each time because they were so thinly traded.

Took me about 18 months to build up some positions, eg. HE-U.

Now have reasonable amounts of several of them, but always looking to add in the event of a motivated seller appearing on the scene. And they come and go pretty quickly.

They allow me to sleep very well at night - witness this past week as an example.