PsyopRanger
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Jul 4, 2006
- Messages
- 227
There has been lots of talk about the baby boomers and a market crash or long bear market. This months Fortune magazine talks about “How the Boomers will Rock the Market.”
Summary:
Bob Dylan recently turned 65, the Rolling Stones are now doing nursing home tours.
Jeremy Siegel author of Stocks for the Long Run says “The demographic trends of the past have just not been strong enough to offset all the other influences of the market. This is the grand daddy of economic shifts.” Some claim stocks could lose 50% and a long bear market starting in 2010.
Hers is some of the Doomsday facts:
Boomers are 78.2 Million strong and are living longer than any other generation
This equals a large number of the work force leaving and a smaller number to support it.
The ratio of workers to retiree’s is currently 5 to 1 versus the future 2.6 to 1
Barring large improvements in productivity that would slow economic growth, as a new study by the FED economists suggests. Author Harry S. Dent adds, “Stocks depend on earnings, earnings depend on economic growth.”
There is also the factor of the RMD, in that boomers will have to start pulling money out at 70 1/2.
In as much doomsday talk there is equal talk that this “Chicken Little” approach is ridiculous. Many boomers will continue to leave money invested but simply change their investment strategy. (evident on these forums) and 90% of the wealth is still controlled by 10% and they will not simply sell because of this demographic change.
Anybody buy into this either way?
Taken from: Fortune Magazine. June 26, 2006
Summary:
Bob Dylan recently turned 65, the Rolling Stones are now doing nursing home tours.
Jeremy Siegel author of Stocks for the Long Run says “The demographic trends of the past have just not been strong enough to offset all the other influences of the market. This is the grand daddy of economic shifts.” Some claim stocks could lose 50% and a long bear market starting in 2010.
Hers is some of the Doomsday facts:
Boomers are 78.2 Million strong and are living longer than any other generation
This equals a large number of the work force leaving and a smaller number to support it.
The ratio of workers to retiree’s is currently 5 to 1 versus the future 2.6 to 1
Barring large improvements in productivity that would slow economic growth, as a new study by the FED economists suggests. Author Harry S. Dent adds, “Stocks depend on earnings, earnings depend on economic growth.”
There is also the factor of the RMD, in that boomers will have to start pulling money out at 70 1/2.
In as much doomsday talk there is equal talk that this “Chicken Little” approach is ridiculous. Many boomers will continue to leave money invested but simply change their investment strategy. (evident on these forums) and 90% of the wealth is still controlled by 10% and they will not simply sell because of this demographic change.
Anybody buy into this either way?
Taken from: Fortune Magazine. June 26, 2006