MichealKnight
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- May 2, 2019
- Messages
- 522
In my previous life - I was never ever "long" in paper assets. I certainly had phases where I took interest in it - and I panic sold when things were bad - only to see everyone else ride it back higher than ever. Then I decided I'd only buy during crashes - and hold on MAX till 20% profit. My unscientific rule was that if the late-night comedy hosts did stock market jokes - BUY. "But you have to pay taxes!" - lol, yeah, I wanted to pay it - that meant I made money. I did *not* want to "Dollar Cost Average" and 'Harvest Tax Losses" - I didn't like celebrating losing money and making it sound cool. But those were the days I made lots of money.
46 and retired 1.5 years. Decided to LTBH. Last year- *3* times I was down and I didn't do a thing. Each time- came back better. Then - today. My goodness it's bad and worse yet- - it might even get worse between funny-money stock prices, hyped up "strong buy!" "intrinsic value!" shouts by people who never ran a lemonade stand - not to mention the Ruling Class seeming to want to start WW3.
Luckily my 4 years expenses in cash - is fine. DD starts college in 4 years and I also have 1st year college money in cash. So far - my rental homes continue to appreciate and rents are coming in. But I've really screwed the pooch. Nope, scratch that. I've made sweet love to a pooch, videotaped it and let my Mom watch that's how bad I feel. I'm down 11% for stocks. Been trying to get hold of my gut, and plot a course forward:
1.)Shed the few crap-quality stocks - keep the high quality stuff and hope history repeats itself for the zillionth time and I see recovery. Also realize - that even if things recover - it'll be from TODAY'S cost basis - meaning my total returns will be lower because of the 11% I lost now.
2.)Start over. Pretend it's my 1st day RE'd. Instead of having 35+ stocks and ETFs and funds...... just focus it down to a few things.
3.)Tap my cash. 4 years expenses in bank. IF S/-500 goes somewhere between 3800-3600.....and P/Es are even lower than today..... maybe take 2 years of the cash.....put it in those stocks. If there's a 10-12% recovery.....SELL and put the cash back in bank but at least I made up some losses. It's not risk free.....but this would mean buying. Apple in the 120's, QQQ in the 270s.....not risk free, but my goodness.... I would hope much of the risk is taken out.
For the next 4 years - if I average 5.5% nominal returns..... I'm fine in terms of where I want to be at that time.
SDY: 2.3% dividend. Real companies. I'm thinking 3-4% a year appreciation doesn't seem like an unrealistic thing.
BRK.B: I gotta believe that when Wally and the Beaver take over for Warren Buffet - it'll still be a solvent company of real profits and cash. Averaging 5-6% yearly..... hopefully realistic?
KO, MCD, PG, PEP - seem to have shareholder friendly histories right up to today. Again - - 2-3% dividends - - I would hope for another 2-3% yearly appreciation.
Maybe a little VZ and MO too.
The one sexy thing I'd consider: Putting 5% into Apple and Google. I just can't imagine that they don't have new products and services on the way.
But that's it. Set it, forget it, eat burgers and play online scrabble. (Party animal)
3.)Accept that I'm Crunked. It's *very* hard to put together the business(s) I had before. And frankly not sure if I want to put my life savings at risk anymore. This would mean getting a job in my old industry. Hurts pride in that I used to be the owner for 20 years and now I'd be reporting to someone. On the low side I'd make 70k, high side - 150k. No college degree here so it's not like there's MegaCorps that I could go to. As a side note, I like being home. I feel it's good for my kids, especially special needs son - -- but I also don't want to say "hey kids, no college money but at least we spent time together"
I would appreciate any questions, comments, suggestions, or even insults just to spice it up a bit. . Thanks for reading.
46 and retired 1.5 years. Decided to LTBH. Last year- *3* times I was down and I didn't do a thing. Each time- came back better. Then - today. My goodness it's bad and worse yet- - it might even get worse between funny-money stock prices, hyped up "strong buy!" "intrinsic value!" shouts by people who never ran a lemonade stand - not to mention the Ruling Class seeming to want to start WW3.
Luckily my 4 years expenses in cash - is fine. DD starts college in 4 years and I also have 1st year college money in cash. So far - my rental homes continue to appreciate and rents are coming in. But I've really screwed the pooch. Nope, scratch that. I've made sweet love to a pooch, videotaped it and let my Mom watch that's how bad I feel. I'm down 11% for stocks. Been trying to get hold of my gut, and plot a course forward:
1.)Shed the few crap-quality stocks - keep the high quality stuff and hope history repeats itself for the zillionth time and I see recovery. Also realize - that even if things recover - it'll be from TODAY'S cost basis - meaning my total returns will be lower because of the 11% I lost now.
2.)Start over. Pretend it's my 1st day RE'd. Instead of having 35+ stocks and ETFs and funds...... just focus it down to a few things.
3.)Tap my cash. 4 years expenses in bank. IF S/-500 goes somewhere between 3800-3600.....and P/Es are even lower than today..... maybe take 2 years of the cash.....put it in those stocks. If there's a 10-12% recovery.....SELL and put the cash back in bank but at least I made up some losses. It's not risk free.....but this would mean buying. Apple in the 120's, QQQ in the 270s.....not risk free, but my goodness.... I would hope much of the risk is taken out.
For the next 4 years - if I average 5.5% nominal returns..... I'm fine in terms of where I want to be at that time.
SDY: 2.3% dividend. Real companies. I'm thinking 3-4% a year appreciation doesn't seem like an unrealistic thing.
BRK.B: I gotta believe that when Wally and the Beaver take over for Warren Buffet - it'll still be a solvent company of real profits and cash. Averaging 5-6% yearly..... hopefully realistic?
KO, MCD, PG, PEP - seem to have shareholder friendly histories right up to today. Again - - 2-3% dividends - - I would hope for another 2-3% yearly appreciation.
Maybe a little VZ and MO too.
The one sexy thing I'd consider: Putting 5% into Apple and Google. I just can't imagine that they don't have new products and services on the way.
But that's it. Set it, forget it, eat burgers and play online scrabble. (Party animal)
3.)Accept that I'm Crunked. It's *very* hard to put together the business(s) I had before. And frankly not sure if I want to put my life savings at risk anymore. This would mean getting a job in my old industry. Hurts pride in that I used to be the owner for 20 years and now I'd be reporting to someone. On the low side I'd make 70k, high side - 150k. No college degree here so it's not like there's MegaCorps that I could go to. As a side note, I like being home. I feel it's good for my kids, especially special needs son - -- but I also don't want to say "hey kids, no college money but at least we spent time together"
I would appreciate any questions, comments, suggestions, or even insults just to spice it up a bit. . Thanks for reading.