dex
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Oct 28, 2003
- Messages
- 5,105
Once the nuclear power plant problem in Japan is resolved the bull market will continue until the end of 2011. At least, that is my crystal ball reading.
I like your scenario better, RetireSoon. (Sorry, Dex.)
Now if W2R can just keep her thoughts to herself...
Once the nuclear power plant problem in Japan is resolved the bull market will continue until the end of 2011. At least, that is my crystal ball reading.
There are other headwinds
- How deep with this move be? That could scare a lot of people out.
- Bahrain and Saudi Arabia protests
- Libya
- Oil Prices
- End of QE2
- Sell in May and go away?
- 10 years since 9/11?
The 3rd year of a president's term is supposed to be very good for the stock market. If it isn't what does that mean for 2012?
Looking to year 3 of presidential cycle Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch
If the dollar starts to significantly strengthen - Kattie bar the door!
All of these are widely known and, if you believe in the efficiency (as opposed to rationality which is an entirely different issue) of markets, should already be priced into the markets.
I don't. And if anyone knows that al-Qaeda will commit a terrorist act in the USA on 9/11/11 they should speak up now and not keep quiet and incorporate that information in to their stock market investments.
I tend to view markets as being somewhat efficient (but well short of perfect) in terms of disseminating publically available information which is relevant to determining prices and at matching buyers and sellers. In other respects I do not believe that markets are very efficient at all.
Also, even if markets were perfectly efficient in all respects (which they are not) efficiency does not imply (i) that markets are rational (they're not) or (ii) that perfectly efficient markets would result in all market participants forming identical views as to the relevance of available information or (iii) that known information would enable us to predict future price movements (today's market prices are at least partly a function of future expectations which, by definition, cannot be known).
As a side note, if markets "hate uncertainty", should it follow that we, as investors, should equate uncertainty with opportunity?
I think the key aspect of the theory i.e. the market is aware of information and incorporates it into the stock price - one way or another - is flawed or at best unprovable. Think of the number of people that are working, know the 'information' but regardless continue to make regular monthly purchases. Or, those just adjust their Asset Allocation regardless of the 'information'
Compared to the total number of shares outstanding, it takes very few to move the stock market.
Should "investor" be trader?
For those of you with a sufficiently long term horizon, today's market is indeed a buying opportunity.*
*Unless it is actually the beginning of the next stage in the generation long secular bear market.
Or you believe in the Mayan calender.
We should push that idea - a stimulus without deficitSo maybe the selling is because all of the believers of the Mayan calendar are looking at the situation in Japan as a warning and figuring this is there last chance to spend 300K+ a year.
Is that enough thread references in one paragraph?
So maybe the selling is because all of the believers of the Mayan calendar are looking at the situation in Japan as a warning and figuring this is there last chance to spend 300K+ a year.
Is that enough thread references in one paragraph?
Whether there is a difference between "investor", "trader", "speculator" and "gambler" is a semantic question. I ceased to view the distinction as meaningful long ago - at about the same time that a succession of salesmen tried to convince me about the alleged merits of term life as an investment.
- J.P Morgan, when asked what the stock market will do, replied,
"It will fluctuate. "
So maybe the selling is because all of the believers of the Mayan calendar are looking at the situation in Japan as a warning and figuring this is there last chance to spend 300K+ a year on bacon, pancake batter in a can, and one-use-only dryer sheets, after paying off the mortage on their union-pension financed house in Wisconsin, installing a tankless water heater and buying a variable annuity from a relative with a gambling problem. Is that enough thread references in one paragraph?