It would be interesting do do a search on this, but it seems to me some established members of this forum have been calling out the high P/E ratio for 4-5 years now? I'm sure they will be right someday, but what do they miss in the interim?
I'm always reminded that I knew the market was getting way over-valued in the 90's big bull run, and I was right. However, I was fully convinced of that by 1997, and the market still had a big rise left in it, and it didn't drop near that point until March 2009 (look at total return, not just NAV). How would I pick a place to get back in? I'd have to be prescient/lucky to pick March 2009 exactly. Maybe I'd still be out? Maybe I'd get back in at a higher point (sell low - buy high)?
I would have missed:
1997 - 33.36%
1998 - 28.58%
1999 - 21.04%
Nope, I'm staying the course as well.
-ERD50