Peak Oil date keep on shifting in the future, is it the date?
US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015
US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015
As I recall, most, if not all of the oil Petrobras is finding is expensive to get to.
As for the presence of natural gas, sure, we have tons of it. What does that have to do with a shortage of oil?
Many of the things for which we currently use oil as an energy source can be adapted to use natural gas instead. So it gives us a plausible alternative if we really do start "running out of oil."As for the presence of natural gas, sure, we have tons of it. What does that have to do with a shortage of oil?
I could be wrong, but given that the U.S. military might be the largest user of oil on the planet, they probably have a vested interest in having people around who are good at reading the tea leaves with respect to the global supply of oil. Seems to me if a potential supply crisis is coming, they would want to know and plan to adapt for it sooner rather than later.I'm still trying to figure out how the military can claim to know anything about peak oil.
That's a good argument, but motivation does not equal expertise. You can go to all the usual sources and see opposing views from "we're going to be in dire straits soon" to "lack of demand will drive prices back down soon".I could be wrong, but given that the U.S. military might be the largest user of oil on the planet, they probably have a vested interest in having people around who are good at reading the tea leaves with respect to the global supply of oil. Seems to me if a potential supply crisis is coming, they would want to know and plan to adapt for it sooner rather than later.
I'm still trying to figure out how the military can claim to know anything about peak oil.
Maybe their next briefing papers will fix global warming or the trade deficit...
True, it may be more expensive (deep offshore drilling required). But expensive is all relative. For a long time, big oil companies were considering $30 per barrel as the long term price of oil, and setting their "reserves" by that. My guess is that the long term price of oil is creeping up from $30/bbl, hence making recoverable reserves increase as the price of oil rises. You can't pay $80/bbl to pump oil out of the ground and bring it to market when it costs $30. You can when it costs $81.
Econ 101. Substitution of energy sources.
Both very true. But again, the price has to increase BEFORE the more expensive oil is actually drilled in large quantities. Leading to a lag in the response of supply to demand.
Substitution of energy solutions is exactly what we need. HOWEVER, it won't happen magically. It needs to happen before the crunch in order to avoid the shortages.
Call me jaded, but I just don't see our government doing ANYTHING until the disaster has already hit.
I think it should be left to private industry and the "market" as much as possible. Having said that, though, I think energy supply concerns are very much a national security and national sovereignty issue, so if the gummint has sound reason to believe that the national supply of energy will be hit hard and cause extreme pain and shortages *before* the marketplace can adjust and adapt to it, it would be within their role as providers of national security to take some preemptive actions.Why does the gubmint need to do anything about it? Crises and shortages are important market-based signals to private producers. This is an instance where the free market does actually do its job (more or less).
They're way ahead of you. The "planning" part is finished, and the "adapt" part is called called "civilian fuel rationing".Seems to me if a potential supply crisis is coming, they would want to know and plan to adapt for it sooner rather than later.
"Thank goodness today is Sunday-- just one more paragraph on this [-]point paper[/-] PowerPoint brief and then I can go home for a few hours!"I also have to wonder if the military isn't like every other bureaucracy - in that certain careerists will "discover" emergencies so they can "fix it" and earn accolades and promotions.