CaliforniaMan
Full time employment: Posting here.
Of course of lot of us remember the famous Peter Lynch. I held some of his Magellan fund before I got into index funds. He was a very smart guy. He had the #1 fund, but he bailed on it just before the early big annual gains were about to drop off the 10 year returns.But the difference is that Buffett and Lynch are pros and have large staffs to evaluate their portfolios and investments in companies. TommyOIB isn't.
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A lot of the big gains were made when the fund was much smaller, and maybe he just got some lucky years. They don't average in the assets in counting the average returns. Years when the fund is small count the same as when it is huge. Back then there was really not much idea of indexing, people just jumped to the top funds.
At any rate, he got out when he was still #1, wrote a best selling book, and became a stock picking hero, maybe all on just a few years of good luck and risk taking in the beginning.
Buffet is of course different, he buys companies and has a big hand in managing them. He also has access to types and preferred classes of ownership that are not available to us.
My guess is not there are few smart stock pickers, but that there are a awful lot of them. And they are all trying to outsmart each other. They play one against the other, buying and selling from and to each other. And by doing so, they assure us that they cannot beat their peer average, except by accepting more risk in a lucky market. And all that time we are paying them big fees for them to play with our money.
Been down that road before. Thanks, but I will stick with indexing.