Is anyone staying the course?

[ER Eddie]

Stay the course. Thousand points of light.

Sell my stocks?

 

[Lawrencewendall]

Just a side note but DW is doing her part in supporting the economy by online shopping. No dry powder here.

 

[smoghat]

I swear I posted here, but it’s gone (?) or maybe I didn’t. We are still 85% in US equities, 10% in bonds and cash, 5% in time-based 529 plans. Down 10% on the year at this point. No big deal given what it is. In fairness, of my equities, 20% or so are consumer staples and those are performing as expected, in other words, down less than the rest of the market.

In the end, I haven’t lost a penny since I FIRE’d in 2016. Moreover, since then, I’ve lived like a king. I’d still be way ahead of the game if I wasn’t such a glutton over the last four years.

 

[targatom2019]

I was 60/40 for 7 months before the crash and was negative 800k from peak but went 96/4 and threw every shinny penny into the market when the Dow was dropping between 20k-18k and now back break even for the year.


Edited: between 23k-18K.

WOW, I am up YTD and only -1% from all time high from Feb 2020 before the crash.

 

[LOL!]

And with the run-up in the past few days, the portfolio is overweighted in equities and has hit a trigger to rebalance. Stay the course means sells some equities and buy some fixed income.

 

[street]

Good to see so many carrying on as usual in these times. I personally would not turn and go a different direction in this time we live.

 

[BeachOrCity]

I choose not to stay the course. Why?
The forward earnings estimates upon which today's pricing is based are not even close to being realistic:
Earnings: S&P 500 Index P/E
Last twelve months 24.56
Year ago 22.07
Next 12 months 22.69

So the professionals think the next 12 months earnings will only be 7.5% lower than the past 12 months? I just don't buy it. Analysts are allowed to forecast anything they want, even if it is in their own selfish interests. CEO's and CFO's are not, which is why they have withdrawn guidance, they are liable if they mislead.

realistically the next 12 months earnings will be much lower at a minimum just from what will happen during 2Q. Let alone a reduced hangover in 3Q / 4Q and possibly beyond.

I am not one to do much technical analysis, but I don't think any bear market ever found a bottom in 30 days.

Given the gains off the lows, I get how many may think this bear is over (and technically it may be depending on your definition); but I see it differently. I think investors will see people and companies as they emerge from lockdown still do and spend much less until we have herd immunity or vaccine / cure. There will be much less spending by everybody and (most not all) companies: travel will be continue to be muted, entertainment will be at a stand still, restaurants will be way way down, etc. None of this will change until the virus is no longer a major concern. It will change of course, but based on what is known today this is going to take a long time with much economic carnage while it plays out.

I think it is human nature to resist accepting the likelihood that things won't return to "normal" soon. Eventually people will accept the new normal, but not until the economy has been 'reopened" for some time and people realize 1st hand that things aren't the same, and the job losses and spending only partially come back.

The major caveat (hope) in this is a vaccine or cure. If that does happen (soon), and it is widely available; things could come roaring back.

 

[Markola]

+1. My views exactly.

 

[Rianne]

I will never ever understand the stock market. I only know I'm in it to stay. I just sold my VTIAX in my Roth for a different equity fund in VG. Took ~ 6% loss since the market skyrocketed a few days ago, so my loss was not as bad (was -12.5%).

 

[VFK57]

In order to save the Market and make money of it our Government creates money(QE) and buys stocks while they are on lower side, similarly like in 2008 they bought real estate assets nobody wanted at the time. In a year or two the pandemic might be over and Market will go back to normal while Government could sell those equities with the profit. Just my thought as I do not have other explanation why Market is going up some days.

 

[Sunset]

I choose not to stay the course. .....

realistically the next 12 months earnings will be much lower at a minimum just from what will happen during 2Q. Let alone a reduced hangover in 3Q / 4Q and possibly beyond.

.....
.... I think investors will see people and companies as they emerge from lockdown still do and spend much less until we have herd immunity or vaccine / cure. There will be much less spending by everybody and (most not all) companies: travel will be continue to be muted, entertainment will be at a stand still, restaurants will be way way down, etc. None of this will change until the virus is no longer a major concern. .......

The major caveat (hope) in this is a vaccine or cure. If that does happen (soon), and it is widely available; things could come roaring back.

I agree, things have changed too much for it to be the same minus 10%, which it was due to be simply because it was too richly valued before.

Some of my holdings are down a LOT.... example BRK.B talk about disappointment...

I'll hold the deep losers like BRK.B but the light losers like VTI and SPY are prime for selling.

I really think we are going to face another dip/drop.
With the unemployed hordes not seen since the Depression, how can we so happily carry on

 

[Mountain skier]

I agree, things have changed too much for it to be the same minus 10%, which it was due to be simply because it was too richly valued before.

Some of my holdings are down a LOT.... example BRK.B talk about disappointment...

I'll hold the deep losers like BRK.B but the light losers like VTI and SPY are prime for selling.

I really think we are going to face another dip/drop.
With the unemployed hordes not seen since the Depression, how can we so happily carry on

I agree with you

 

[Dtail]

I agree, things have changed too much for it to be the same minus 10%, which it was due to be simply because it was too richly valued before.

Some of my holdings are down a LOT.... example BRK.B talk about disappointment...

I'll hold the deep losers like BRK.B but the light losers like VTI and SPY are prime for selling.

I really think we are going to face another dip/drop.
With the unemployed hordes not seen since the Depression, how can we so happily carry on

Agree in general but with one interesting point.
The last 2 times we had over 10% unemployment, we were in the beginnings already of new bull markets.
1982 and 2009.

 

[COcheesehead]

The only metric to measure the market now is the virus. We are reopening, the market is up. The future is unclear, but hopeful.

I am virtually even YTD. Staying the course.

 

[kevdude]

I really don't have an AA plan as the majority (~67%) of our investable assets are in investment properties. I did move approximately 8% of our liquid assets (including retirement accounts) from cash to individual stocks at the end of February and the last week of March. This was cash I had not invested yet from the sale of a property that closed in November of 2019. Once we sell the rest of our properties (current plan is 2023'ish, maybe...) we will probably be around 70/30.

I have not held any international equities and do not see buying any any time soon.

 

[P.S.]

The only metric to measure the market now is the virus. We are reopening...

??
If the only metric were the virus, then one would not stay the course.
If the only metric were the virus, and we are reopening, then one would definitely not stay the course.
IMO the only measure to determine staying the course is The Fed... BRRRRRRRRR....BRRRRRRRRR....
Or a miracle. Miracles do happen.

On March 16, we knew that SARS-CoV2 caused severe respiratory disease, many cases which could not be helped. China was trying ECMO and sometimes proning helped.
Two and a half months later, we know that SARS-CoV2 in some patients causes the respiratory prob, directly damages brain, liver, heart, kidneys, causes blood clots in blood vessels of all sizes causes COVID toe, heart attacks, strokes, renal failure, skin lesions, multi-system inflammation in kids and more. ECMO doesn’t help. Proning does.
Meanwhile, Americans, who either have not seen this disease up close or are willing to gamble that they will have a mild case, are eager to get back out and encounter the virus, which is more than happy to find a new locus in which to outbreak.

Hope and positive thoughts is not a successful strategy with science. Yes, the future is unclear... because a miracle could happen. Miracles do happen.

 

[FLD3C]

I continue with the plan: 84/0/16 . It did drift as low as 80/20. I continue to sleep well at night

 

[Sunset]

I agree, things have changed too much for it to be the same minus 10%, which it was due to be simply because it was too richly valued before.

Some of my holdings are down a LOT.... example BRK.B talk about disappointment...

I'll hold the deep losers like BRK.B but the light losers like VTI and SPY are prime for selling.

I really think we are going to face another dip/drop.
With the unemployed hordes not seen since the Depression, how can we so happily carry on

I don't want to mislead folks, so when I talk about primed to sell my light losers, I mean within IRA/ROTH.

I am staying the course in taxable as the tax hit would be too much to sell all, and while I have not figured it out, paying an extra 14%->20% in taxes compared to later slowly over decades selling it, would seem to equal another big plunge in the stock market. This would hurt doubly if I was wrong.

 

[Sunset]

Agree in general but with one interesting point.
The last 2 times we had over 10% unemployment, we were in the beginnings already of new bull markets.
1982 and 2009.

While differences exist, it does make me think I could be wrong, and things will muddle along where we are for a year and then return to overpriced.

 

[GTFan]

Went from 60/35/5 down to 47/48/5 mostly by selling off some intl and small cap, reducing risk exposure. Only down 5.88% this year so not a bad hit. Our AA is all stock in taxable and all bonds in tax-advantaged, don't want to sell down stock further because I don't want the long-term CGs (we have heavily subsidized ACA health insurance).

Was able to harvest some tax losses by doing so, don't have a problem doing it again in future when the market catches up to earnings reality later this year. We are still in a fed-created bubble IMO.

 

[COcheesehead]

As of this morning, right now, I am actually up YTD. Crazy.

 

[BeachOrCity]

As of this morning, right now, I am actually up YTD. Crazy.

For sure! When I occasionally watch CNBC I wonder if I am some crazy permanent-bear I never thought I was......

 

[Spanky]

As of this morning, right now, I am actually up YTD. Crazy.

Congrats. Money market and nearly all fixed income funds/ETFs (e.g., long term treasury is +22.15%) are all positive YTD. Proper market timing, puts, shorts have done even better.

 

[targatom2019]

As of this morning, right now, I am actually up YTD. Crazy.

congrats !!! I was negative 800K mid March but now hit new all time high portfolio. I did buy a lot of equities and individual companies before March 23rd low.

 

[COcheesehead]

congrats !!! I was negative 800K mid March but now hit new all time high portfolio. I did buy a lot of equities and individual companies before March 23rd low.

Bought some rocket fuel late March:WAMCX. Those buys are up 36%-49%. Entire portfolio up over $500,000+ since that time.