donheff
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Good grief what a tiring thread. The most useful thing I got out of it was a re-look at the Bernstein calculator from hell piece. My impression from way back was that he had made some conservative prediction that reduced returns over the coming years would lead to worse results than are present in the historical record. But it is clear looking at the article that he is not. Basically he is saying that he thinks we are heading for a lousy 30 year run and uses 1966 as his benchmark. I.E., from a Firecalx perspective he is saying we should expect to be on some of the lousy scenarios. That still leaves us in the 4% SWR range for 100% FC success. It seems to me that most of the Firecalc proponents around here tend to start there and back off to lesser SWRs of 3-3.5% (or switch to variable withdrawal approaches) to accommodate the possibility that the future will be even worse than the worst of the past.
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