Larry Swedroe on timing bond investments

[walkinwood]

His point is that bond prices reflect the expectation of changes in future interest rates and a premium for the risk that the rates may rise more than expected. He uses past results to show that sticking to a well diversified AA gives you almost the same returns as moving in/out of bonds/cash with perfect hindsight.

How to invest with interest rates so low - CBS News

 

[brewer12345]

That may well be true for investment grade and treasuries, but that is not the case with junky stuff. The market regularly (3 to 5 years) gets wildly optimistic for a period of time and then crashes.

I also have to wonder how valid the analysis is with so much monkeying going on with MBS and treasury rates.