Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[copyright1997reloaded]

In all seriousness, I do think there is a personal inflation rate which varies a lot from person to person. Take gasoline. There was a time when I had a long commute for work and we spent a LOT of money on gas. Now, we get a tank of gas every couple of months. Yes, of course, I notice who that tank now costs $25 more than it used to. But, when I fill it every 6 weeks or so it is not that big a deal. Back when I was filling my car multiple times a week that increase would have been quite material.

Same thing on energy for the house. Back when I lived in a 4500 SF house with outbuilding our electric bill was a lot. Now, we are in a smaller house with a heat pump. Yes, I noticed my cost has gone up but it is not that much proportionate to our other expenses.

I pay no attention to increases in used or new cars because we are not in the market for either.

Don't get me wrong. There are things that I notice that have gone up. All I am saying is that the impact can vary a lot from person to person.

Energy is an input into just about everything you have in your modern life. Food (Fertilizer, diesel for tractors and transportation), drugs, electrical supply (39% of the US electrical power is from natural gas), and so on.

Some of these inputs can be seen immediately (e.g. price at the pump), but just about ALL aspects of a modern economy will be affected as energy input prices rise.

ETA: Nice graphic showing GDP per capital vs. Energy use. Also shows change over time.

 

[madatrub]

Notice how Gas prices are sky high and rising but funny how there are no shortages. I am sure the oil companies and refineries are loving it.

Been in this business for 4 decades. 90s, 00's, 10s, 20s. There's no shortages because refineries are running balls to the wall. And thats barely enough, as the inventory in PADD1 are at all time lows. Any blip (hurricane, major refinery outage), and you'll see shortages.

 

[nap470]

At Shadowstats.com they show what the current inflation rate would be based on how inflation was calculated in 1980 and 1990 models. Today's CPI number would be over 17% using the 1980 formula.

http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-cpi.gif?hl=ad&t=1654868736

Gas prices around me (west Chicago burbs) are at $6 at some stations. I heard the USDA warn of $12 per dozen eggs by end of year.

 

[NW-Bound]

... I heard the USDA warn of $12 per dozen eggs by end of year.

That's scary. Thanks goodness, it's a hoax. More like $3/dozen eggs.

See Snopes: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/usda-egg-prices-inflation/

 

[aja8888]

That's scary. Thanks goodness, it's a hoax. More like $3/dozen eggs.

See Snopes: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/usda-egg-prices-inflation/

I just paid $3 dozen (extra large eggs) this afternoon.

 

[Magus]

I just paid $3 dozen (extra large eggs) this afternoon.

It was $3.43 a dozen for large eggs last week for me. $4.99 for 18. Same store 12 weeks ago had a special for $0.77 (reg $1.49). $10 a dozen eggs seems crazy but frankly so did $3.50 a few months ago except organic free range ones.

 

[aja8888]

It was $3.43 a dozen for large eggs last week for me. $4.99 for 18. Same store 12 weeks ago had a special for $0.77 (reg $1.49). $10 a dozen eggs seems crazy but frankly so did $3.50 a few months ago except organic free range ones.

Sounds like I got a deal! (and didn't know it)

 

[ERObjd]

Gas.
Food.
Housing.
Electronics.
Utilities.
Clothing.
Durable goods.
Consumer goods.
Travel.

Except for those, inflation is going down. How comforting.

I will take the category "Putin Price Hike" for 2 cents and a 1/2 ruble, Alex.

 

[Magus]

Sounds like I got a deal! (and didn't know it)

Should have stocked up!

 

[ERObjd]

Our next door neighbor has a Sam memberships and she told me that eggs are no bargain there either nearly $9 for a 24 count carton and very limited stock. The local farmer markets are about $5 to $6 a dozen around here. My wife is a certified chef and bakes custom cakes so we go through quite a few eggs especially since it is graduation and wedding season. she buys a whole flat of eggs at Hy Vee or Wall Mart

 

[Lcountz]

You know those posts from several people who worried that they couldn't find anything they needed or wanted to spend their pile on, now that they're retired?

Couldn't justify spending for spending's sake?

Who knew food and energy would be "it"?!?!?!

Careful what you pine for!!!!

 

[GenXguy]

Silver linings? Sans Energy and Food, inflation has looked as if it's peaked.

Inflation peaking and prices peaking aren't the same thing, though. Even if inflation peaked, it's still very high, and prices will continue to go up quickly as they have been. Even if inflation comes down some, eventually, prices will continue to go up on average from their already high prices.

 

[jollystomper]

Been in this business for 4 decades. 90s, 00's, 10s, 20s. There's no shortages because refineries are running balls to the wall. And thats barely enough, as the inventory in PADD1 are at all time lows. Any blip (hurricane, major refinery outage), and you'll see shortages.

It will be 'interesting' to see what happens when we get the first hurricane that tracks into the gulf. We are very early in the hurricane season so that is very likely to occur, maybe multiple times. Gas prices going up even more and with less availability will not be pretty.

 

[Lcountz]

jollystomper said:

"It will be 'interesting' to see what happens when we get the first hurricane that tracks into the gulf. We are very early in the hurricane season so that is very likely to occur, maybe multiple times. Gas prices going up even more and with less availability will not be pretty."


I fear a brutal cold northeast winter with Natgas already so high...polar vortex, etc....

I have lost a lot of weight in the last five years (50 pounds +) and I have actually planned to gain some back...

Since the loss of that subcutaneous layer of fat, I'm cold at 70 degrees or less. I usually had no care about heating my home...set the thermo at 72 in October and left til mid April and still use as needed if I'm cold.

I live in Western PA and today it's 51 degrees and raining...COLD to me!!!

I don't have the heat on today of course, but next winter I will not be so frivolous. I just thank goodness for my high efficiency gas boiler.

It'll be fun "growing" that fat layer back!! I figure 10 pounds should do it. I have been strict keto since Jan 2017 and I hate to do it, but added to my long undies, sweat shirts, flannel nightwear, it should help!!!

I may finally get use out of a "comfy" someone gave me I never wore ( some shapeless baggy affair that envelopes your body in yards of material...)

Haven't broke the news to my cats yet... they are glued to the cast iron radiator in my living room when it's cold!!!!

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Inflation peaking and prices peaking aren't the same thing, though. Even if inflation peaked, it's still very high, and prices will continue to go up quickly as they have been. Even if inflation comes down some, eventually, prices will continue to go up on average from their already high prices.

Yes.
The inflation *rate* is the derivative of a price curve.
The change in inflation rate is the 2nd derivative.
For those non-math folks, if we are measuring distance (prices) over time, then speed (velocity) would be the change in distance (prices) over time, and whether we were speeding up, i.e. accelerating is the change in speed.

So we currently have prices increasing at an accelerating rate. Ugh. Once inflation "peaks" we will stop accelerating but still might be going pretty darn fast, and will still be increasing our distance (i.e. increasing prices).

Sorry, I've only had a single shot of caffeine in my cappuccino this morning if none of this makes sense. However, I am about to go out and use a chain saw, so I better wake up.

 

[John Galt III]

Well, I still have a lot of my free 'stimulus' money left. I have been using it to pay the added costs on stuff. Got a few more months worth left, probably.

 

[JoeWras]

Been in this business for 4 decades. 90s, 00's, 10s, 20s. There's no shortages because refineries are running balls to the wall. And thats barely enough, as the inventory in PADD1 are at all time lows. Any blip (hurricane, major refinery outage), and you'll see shortages.

It has gotten to a point to change DW and my behavior. We are driving less, being careful to chain trips to stores, etc. It isn't huge, but it matters.

I have no idea what the actual aggregate consumption numbers are. I suspect they are still up due to all the bottled up demand to travel and do stuff.

 

[Dtail]

Well my DGF's son has been exposed to Covid, so no Pickleball for me for at least a week, so less gas used. That's my silver lining.

 

[Markola]

We went to a party last night and sometimes I mentioned I’m flying down south on Sunday to see family. Reactions were consistently like, “OMG, how much did you pay for tickets?!” Truth is, I shopped around and found a normal price on Delta, but I was surprised how concerned people were about flight prices. One family of four canceled their summer trip to Thailand, because tix were outta sight.

I found a normal ticket price but the rental car is double the usual price for this trip, and I’m sure restaurants will be more expensive.

 

[NW-Bound]

I just paid $3 dozen (extra large eggs) this afternoon.

It was $3.43 a dozen for large eggs last week for me. $4.99 for 18. Same store 12 weeks ago had a special for $0.77 (reg $1.49). $10 a dozen eggs seems crazy but frankly so did $3.50 a few months ago except organic free range ones.

If eggs get more expensive, people will start to raise laying hens at home.

Does anybody here know about the price of chicken feed, and if it has also been rising?

 

[aja8888]

If eggs get more expensive, people will start to raise laying hens at home.

Does anybody here know about the price of chicken feed, and if it has also been rising?

Speaking of chickens.....when we lived in California in the 1980's, we had a second house that was horse property. My Mom and sister lived in it and we boarded our daughter's horse there. We had two Rhode Island Red hens and they left us 4+ eggs every morning. Those old hens were pretty nice to have around as they kept the horse company at night and ate all the snails in the yard. Chicken scratch was pretty cheap back then, but today, I have no clue.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

If eggs get more expensive, people will start to raise laying hens at home.

Does anybody here know about the price of chicken feed, and if it has also been rising?

According to this BBC article, up 50% over the last two years: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61466479

If I get a chance, I will ask my nephew in law who has a farm.

 

[Chuckanut]

I just bought a cherry pie this morning. It is normally a $9 cherry pie but it has been marked down to $4 because it expires tomorrow, giving me only two days to eat it. Even if I throw half the pie away, it's still less expensive than buying a fresh pie.

As a warrior in the fight against inflation, I will eat at least half of the pie over the next two days, and thus do my part to bring down the inflation rate. Somebody has to make the sacrifice.

 

[Chuckanut]

Those old hens were pretty nice to have around as they kept the horse company at night and ate all the snails in the yard.

Has the price of snails gone up also? I would be happy to let any person raising chickens take as many snails from my garden as he/she would like. You don't even have to give me any fresh eggs.

The price of eggs rising is a great example of how this inflation is hitting the lower income groups harder. Eggs are a great source of many things we need including complete proteins. And, they used to be cheap (closer to $1 a dozen than $2 a dozen). What source of inexpensive protein is next? Peanut butter? Forget I wrote that. We don't want to give the gubmint any more ideas about how to help us.

 

[aja8888]

I just bought a cherry pie this morning. It is normally a $9 cherry pie but it has been marked down to $4 because it expires tomorrow, giving me only two days to eat it. Even if I through half the pie away, it's still less expensive than buying a fresh pie.

As a warrior in the fight against inflation, I will eat at least half of the pie over the next two days, and thus do my part to bring down the inflation rate. Somebody has to make the sacrifice.

Chuck, if you really were sacrificing, you would eat the whole pie in two days. Why waste good food?