Always take main stream media with a grain of salt. These CEO's don't make statements out of the blue, their statements are usually very calculated based on the agenda they are trying to push. Wasn't Dimon quoted as saying we're in for an economic hurricane just like a week or two ago...
Market Sentiment - Recession Length
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Always take main stream media with a grain of salt. These CEO's don't make statements out of the blue, their statements are usually very calculated based on the agenda they are trying to push. Wasn't Dimon quoted as saying we're in for an economic hurricane just like a week or two ago...
Dtail
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
+1
The pigs have gotten fat during this past long bull run (me included). There is a large part of the working population that has never experienced a $hit show like 2008 so this is/could be their first rodeo. Throw in constant media/politics looking for clicks and you have plenty of gas to throw on the fire!
IMHO, bumpy ride until 2024, but hopefully another bull rears its head by then. Fed quickly raising rates gives it more dry powder to crank them down when the market cries uncle. You could make an argument we are bouncing around the bottom now and will hang here for another 18 months... or we could take a deeper dive. My crystal ball does not see a sustainable recovery for 2+ years. Take that to the bank!
copyright1997reloaded
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
It seems some of the big boys are "pausing hiring". Two days ago Apple, and just now (and thus the market pullback) Google.
Markola
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
On the bright side, Delta deposited 10,000 points into my account and sent an apologetic email for the disaster that flying has become (with many carriers, not just Delta). I never complained but plenty of people must have.
USGrant1962
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Yea, DW and I each got 10K AA miles because our flight home from Grenada was canceled due to customs/immigration closing early (in Charlotte, Miami, and Puerto Rico) after a 2-hour mechanical delay. Plane sat at gate overnight and we left the next morning, so IRL it was something like a 16 hour delay. AA also paid for two taxis, dinner, breakfast and hotel. There are huge incentives to get this stuff straightened out on the airline side, on the government side not so much.
HMM - just realized this was the recession thread, not the travel thread. Whatever.
Markola
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
I figure it’s more The Economy is Going to Heck thread, so legit to talk about airlines’ foibles.
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I was thinking this is more of a "We may soon have an opportunity to buy shares in an index fund at a price that will give us the returns we need to live the good life" kind of thread. Time will tell.
Short (6 months) or no recession, is my call. Just like the pandemic recession, this is just too grossly telegraphed, for it to be anything of consequence. Deep downturns are deep because people/governments don’t expect them, and thus didn’t prepare or react.
All we will get here is another transfer of wealth from those who are duped into capitulation, and those on Wall Street who knew better.
Good luck.
All we will get here is another transfer of wealth from those who are duped into capitulation, and those on Wall Street who knew better.
Good luck.
copyright1997reloaded
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
AT&T this morning:
"We're seeing more pressure on business wireline than expected and on the consumer side of our business, we're seeing an increase in bad debt to slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels as well as extended cash collection cycles."
Just wondering why well-employed-the-job-market-is-great people would fail to pay their cell phone bill? Stock is down 8.8%.
"We're seeing more pressure on business wireline than expected and on the consumer side of our business, we're seeing an increase in bad debt to slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels as well as extended cash collection cycles."
Just wondering why well-employed-the-job-market-is-great people would fail to pay their cell phone bill? Stock is down 8.8%.
"to slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels" -- This is noise. You can't conclude anything from this.
Its probably because inflation for all the necessities have gone up anywhere from 20-100% (food, housing, utilities, gas) and wages hasn't been keeping up with the sky high inflation. Internet and mobile phones are not a true necessity so they are being scarified for the time being.
On a side note... its crazy it feels like petty crime has gone up in my area already. Just a couple days ago someone got their tires stolen parking in guest area of my complex.
copyright1997reloaded
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Each of us needs to make our own conclusions. You have yours, I have mine. Employment is starting to roll over. Housing is rolling over. Earning surprises are to the downside.
My thesis remains: Things will continue to roll over to the downside. The only way it stops quickly (e.g. a "mild" recession) is for the fed to pivot a lot sooner than later (as soon as they can grasp at some "good" inflation news). The result will be that inflation will not be beaten.
But as I said, it is up to me to conclude.
Markola
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
It’s still possible that recently-reconfirmed Jay Powell prefers that history remember him as more of a Paul Volker than an Arthur Burns, i.e. the Fed doesn’t pivot.
GravitySucks
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Anecdotally:
DD2 is a hairstylist. She had 2 cancellations this week and both said they simply couldn't afford it. Very rare for her to ever get cancellations.
I'm calling recession has started.
(Side note, I can't believe how much women have to pay to get their hair done. DW must have hid the real cost all those years.)
DD2 is a hairstylist. She had 2 cancellations this week and both said they simply couldn't afford it. Very rare for her to ever get cancellations.
I'm calling recession has started.
(Side note, I can't believe how much women have to pay to get their hair done. DW must have hid the real cost all those years.)
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
Exactly.
Since the ECB just raised some rates 0.50% and the negative one to 0.0%, you can expect that the FED (thru Powell) will continue to raise rates and remove liquidity from the economy through QT.
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Not beating inflation is not an option, IMO. This assumes (<-- dangerous word) that our leaders actually give a hoot about the people they represent.
Inflation will terrorize the lower income groups as the price of want they want and what they would like goes higher and higher. Next come people like us who are seeing inflation take a huge bite out of the assets we accumulated over so many years. There will be lots of unhappy campers if inflation continues into next year near the current rates.
GnGnH - gas and groceries and housing will be an ongoing reminder.
Tell me about... SO seems to be going through mid-life crisis and decided to get her hair bleached and dyed earlier this year. When she came back I asked what the damage was and was shocked by how much it was, $600! It did take an entire day for the process, afterwards I was thinking maybe I should become a part time hair dresser if I were ever short on cash, gotten plenty of practice since the pandemic in cutting my own hair
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
Tell me about... SO seems to be going through mid-life crisis and decided to get her hair bleached and dyed earlier this year. When she came back I asked what the damage was and was shocked by how much it was, $600! It did take an entire day for the process, afterwards I was thinking maybe I should become a part time hair dresser if I were ever short on cash, gotten plenty of practice since the pandemic in cutting my own hair
I am literally amazed at the cost of women getting their hair done up. And all the salons around here are booked to the gills.
copyright1997reloaded
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
They will do everything they can to avoid another great depression.
Look around, do you see many "leaders" whose actions suggest our current deficits and debt are unsustainable? Then add on off-budget liabilities.
Instead, "many" think that "moderate" inflation is a good thing, and there is a school of thought that paying off that huge debt (if ever) requires paying it off in cheaper dollars, i.e. inflation is the friend of the big debtor (of which our government is the biggest. )
I make my plans not on their words - but on their actions. If we really cared about inflation we would see big-time cuts in fiscal stimulus....and by definition when you are running a deficit it is fiscal stimulus.
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I remember being in Eastern Europe for the first time. I frequently saw a photo of Gary Cooper from the movie High Noon. In his hand he was carrying not a gun, but a ballot.
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Koolau
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Well, it's "official" - or is it?
Used to be 2 quarters of GDP decline. Now they (you know who you are) say, no! "That's not the definition." Of course, then "they" do not say what the definition is. But, not trying to turn this political. Just wondering what IS the definition? Who decides what the definition is? Just curious, not that it changes how I live. YMMV
Used to be 2 quarters of GDP decline. Now they (you know who you are) say, no! "That's not the definition." Of course, then "they" do not say what the definition is. But, not trying to turn this political. Just wondering what IS the definition? Who decides what the definition is? Just curious, not that it changes how I live. YMMV
Chuckanut
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Redefining terms is becoming epidemic among the political cast. For example an income tax on capital gains is now an ‘excise’ tax in WA state. This gets around some constitutional difficulties with an income tax. No elected official spends taxpayer dollars these days, they ‘invest’ the dollars.
perez99
Recycles dryer sheets
Below is the definition from the National Bureau of Economic Research ("the horse's mouth"). I think they call it after its clear its already in, which some complain is not real-time enough.
Q: What is a recession? What is an expansion?
A: The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another.
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