dex
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Oct 28, 2003
- Messages
- 5,105
I have been retired for 2.5yrs - I'm 53 - this is how I view the current stock market and how my plan helps to keep my sanity. I hope it helps others.
Current position 38/62 mutual funds/Cash
Small pension at 60 - about 10K
Social Security at 63 - I don't know the amount. It would have been the max. if I kept working
So I can cover my expenses without touching the 38% invested in mutual funds.
We are in a secular bear market - 2000 to 15-18 ? - the average length is 18 years
The current down leg - bear market - began in Oct 2007 - it might end by April/May 2009 - 18 mos. the average length.
2009 May ? - a new 4 year up cycle begins
2013 May ? - 18 mos bear market begins
2015 Jan ? - 18 mos bear market ends
2015? secular bull market begins
2033? Secular bull market ends
Now don't think this knowledge helped me - I started averaging in from 100% cash in May 2007 - I wasn't paying attention to the big picture.
My plan
Cash/cash equivalents 5 years of expense
Average into the market.
Watch the 4 year cycle
Try not to focus on the markets or the portfolio hit.
Enjoy life.
What is keeping me sane.
I have enough cash
In the short term I know my mutual funds will get hammered.
In the long term they will recover.
Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 9/19/2008
Decision Point ®: Cycles Page 1
Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900.
Bull Markets Return When You Least Expect (Aberdeen Global Income, BlackRock, Eaton Vance) at SmartMoney.com
+++++++
Here is good news - Foreign travel should become less expensive.
I made these comments in another post.
----
The dollar should get stronger - interest rates are now not in sync.
The US Fed rate was lower than others - dollar weak
The others will be lowing their interest rates - dollar gets strong
The recession will end in the USA first - fed will raise rate - dollar gets stronger because the others will not at the same time as the US - they don't want to risk derailing their recovery.
Buy the euro when it is close to parity with the dollar - they will begin to raise rates - and the dollar rates will remain constant.
Current position 38/62 mutual funds/Cash
Small pension at 60 - about 10K
Social Security at 63 - I don't know the amount. It would have been the max. if I kept working
So I can cover my expenses without touching the 38% invested in mutual funds.
We are in a secular bear market - 2000 to 15-18 ? - the average length is 18 years
The current down leg - bear market - began in Oct 2007 - it might end by April/May 2009 - 18 mos. the average length.
2009 May ? - a new 4 year up cycle begins
2013 May ? - 18 mos bear market begins
2015 Jan ? - 18 mos bear market ends
2015? secular bull market begins
2033? Secular bull market ends
Now don't think this knowledge helped me - I started averaging in from 100% cash in May 2007 - I wasn't paying attention to the big picture.
My plan
Cash/cash equivalents 5 years of expense
Average into the market.
Watch the 4 year cycle
Try not to focus on the markets or the portfolio hit.
Enjoy life.
What is keeping me sane.
I have enough cash
In the short term I know my mutual funds will get hammered.
In the long term they will recover.
Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 9/19/2008
Decision Point ®: Cycles Page 1
Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900.
Bull Markets Return When You Least Expect (Aberdeen Global Income, BlackRock, Eaton Vance) at SmartMoney.com
+++++++
Here is good news - Foreign travel should become less expensive.
I made these comments in another post.
----
The dollar should get stronger - interest rates are now not in sync.
The US Fed rate was lower than others - dollar weak
The others will be lowing their interest rates - dollar gets strong
The recession will end in the USA first - fed will raise rate - dollar gets stronger because the others will not at the same time as the US - they don't want to risk derailing their recovery.
Buy the euro when it is close to parity with the dollar - they will begin to raise rates - and the dollar rates will remain constant.