Need help convincing Sugar Mama

[pb4uski]

Yes. But why did you use 4% return?...

Come on ray. Use a couple of those brain cells. Go back to my post and look back further to the post that I was responding to.

That poster used 4% and since I was responding to his post that is what I used.

 

[pb4uski]

....80 - 62 is 18 years,
The average return for a 60/40 portfolio (S&P500 / 10 ytr T-bill) for 18 year periods is 9.5%. The lowest was 5.4%.
The best was 15.0%, but we are interested in the worst-case (failure) performance, so we need to look at returns on the low end.

At 5.4% and 2% COLA, the age 62 portfolio has more money up to age 85.
At 9.5% and 2% COLA, the age 62 portfolio ALWAYS has more money.

At 8.2%, the age 62 portfolio has more money up to age 100. That's below the average historical return, so the odds are in your favor of taking SS at 62.

At 5.4% and 2% COLA I get a crossover at 83, not 85.
At 8.2% and 2% COLA I get a crossover of 94, not 100