FinanceGeek
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2007
- Messages
- 374
Well, its been at least 24 hrs since it was announced the supremes will hear the constitutionality of obamacare. I'm surprised to still have the opportunity to start the first thread to discuss the potential outcomes from that ruling.
What's everyone think? Another 5-4 decision following the ideological grounding of the various judges - like most of the recent high profile cases? But which way 5-4? As of today, Intrade's market forecasts only a 38% chance of the individual mandate being ruled unconstitutional.
The timing of the expected decision is certainly convenient in one sense. The decision is due in June. If the law stands intact, it seems that those with pre-existing conditions looking to ER could decide to do so on or after July 1 and get coverage under COBRA for 18 months. This would provide guaranteed issue coverage until 1/1/2014 at which time pre-existing exclusions are no longer permitted. Think we'll see the labor force participation rate take a spike downwards if the law and particularly the mandate is upheld?
But perhaps it won't be that simple. Perhaps the purchase mandate is thrown out, but the rest of the law stays in place. Longer term - adverse selection is likely to render the system unworkable, but short term will it proceed ahead? Possibly with a revised system that somehow penalizes those who sign up only when the need for care strikes??
Thoughts? Strategies?
What's everyone think? Another 5-4 decision following the ideological grounding of the various judges - like most of the recent high profile cases? But which way 5-4? As of today, Intrade's market forecasts only a 38% chance of the individual mandate being ruled unconstitutional.
The timing of the expected decision is certainly convenient in one sense. The decision is due in June. If the law stands intact, it seems that those with pre-existing conditions looking to ER could decide to do so on or after July 1 and get coverage under COBRA for 18 months. This would provide guaranteed issue coverage until 1/1/2014 at which time pre-existing exclusions are no longer permitted. Think we'll see the labor force participation rate take a spike downwards if the law and particularly the mandate is upheld?
But perhaps it won't be that simple. Perhaps the purchase mandate is thrown out, but the rest of the law stays in place. Longer term - adverse selection is likely to render the system unworkable, but short term will it proceed ahead? Possibly with a revised system that somehow penalizes those who sign up only when the need for care strikes??
Thoughts? Strategies?