I completely agree with you. Many, many folks on this site either do not understand that, or theorize that if they stick with what FIRECalc indicates would be 100% success (based on past results), even if things do not go according to plan, they will not end out too badly.
I am a pessimist by nature when it comes to models like FIRECalc. However, it gives many folks the warm fuzzies - if it works for them, wonderful.
I do understand that it is purely past performance. When I say "projection," I mean on the Investigate page under proposed spending at 100%. I thank you all for your thoughts. I won't take any of them as gospel, just my interest in what a largely (apparently) prudent group of people are thinking.